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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


Torch Tiger
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57 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I do not buy that summers are getting warmer due to increased flow off of the ocean....if they are, then its almost entirely due to warmer nighttime lows. I could fathom that for winter...fine. At the end of the day, I feel as though much of our warming, at least here locally, is manifesting itself via milder nighttime lows. This article would make sense in that respect since it would be logical for more marine influence to contribute to a low of 14 at Logan during an arctic outbreak, as opposed to what would have been 12 40 years ago.

 

 

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37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wiz  .... do you seriously need to ask the question, 'why so hard to get an EML in here,' or are you just hand throwing  -

We are the farthest from the source.  That is why.  That was always why. That will always BE why - for ever. 

Until such time as a plate displacement event ... reorders the surface of the Earth such that SNE ends up where Chicago is, we will always get the leftover stench after a 2000 mile journey span of ill-reputing air masses ... 

This :) 

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do not buy that summers are getting warmer due to increased flow off of the ocean....if they are, then its almost entirely due to warmer nighttime lows. I could fathom that for winter...fine. At the end of the day, I feel as though much of our warming, at least here locally, is manifesting itself via milder nighttime lows. This article would make sense in that respect since it would be logical for more marine influence to contribute to a low of 14 at Logan during an arctic outbreak, as opposed to what would have been 12 40 years ago.

 

 

While I agree that our warming is contributed to warmer overnight lows there is actually strong influence by a warming ocean on this. If you think about it, a warmer ocean yields greater low-level moisture. This is one reason why I think we've seen an increase in cool season severe events (especially closer to the coast) the past several years. The warmer waters are yielding greater low-level moisture which in turn is yielding greater low-level instability. 

And with the warmer oceans and higher concentration of low-level moisture you're decreasing the efficiency of radiation. H20 is a stronger heat trapping gas than CO2. 

But yeah...this process will have a much stronger influence on nighttime as opposed to daytime. This is because H20/CO2 does not absorb shortwave radiation emitted by the Sun that well, but they do absorb longwave radiation emitted by the Earth very well. (Note: I know CO2 does...not sure if this is true for H20 as well. Don't remember).

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Warmer summers have been brought to us by dews and its effect on night lows I think. 
 

Part of that is likely due to warmer waters off the east coast. But it’s also been a favorable pattern over the last several summers to bring the warmth and humidity up the coast. 

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26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do not buy that summers are getting warmer due to increased flow off of the ocean....if they are, then its almost entirely due to warmer nighttime lows. I could fathom that for winter...fine. At the end of the day, I feel as though much of our warming, at least here locally, is manifesting itself via milder nighttime lows. This article would make sense in that respect since it would be logical for more marine influence to contribute to a low of 14 at Logan during an arctic outbreak, as opposed to what would have been 12 40 years ago.

 

 

It’s also not necessarily the lack of snowfall. That has increased. I think they meant snowpack. 
I’ll have to dig into the data to see for myself. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Warmer summers have been brought to us by dews and its effect on night lows I think. 
 

Part of that is likely due to warmer waters off the east coast. But it’s also been a favorable pattern over the last several summers to bring the warmth and humidity up the coast. 

Might be a shot in the dark but I wonder if the Gulf of Mexico has influenced this as well. Waters in the Gulf of Mexico have been above-average and also warming even earlier. This could explain why we've seen some stretches the past decade where we're getting some relatively high dews earlier on in the season. It might not be that far-fetched of a thought...the Gulf of Mexico has a significant influence east of the Mississippi. 

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19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Might be a shot in the dark but I wonder if the Gulf of Mexico has influenced this as well. Waters in the Gulf of Mexico have been above-average and also warming even earlier. This could explain why we've seen some stretches the past decade where we're getting some relatively high dews earlier on in the season. It might not be that far-fetched of a thought...the Gulf of Mexico has a significant influence east of the Mississippi. 

Part of it as well. 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

This :) 

While I agree that our warming is contributed to warmer overnight lows there is actually strong influence by a warming ocean on this. If you think about it, a warmer ocean yields greater low-level moisture. This is one reason why I think we've seen an increase in cool season severe events (especially closer to the coast) the past several years. The warmer waters are yielding greater low-level moisture which in turn is yielding greater low-level instability. 

And with the warmer oceans and higher concentration of low-level moisture you're decreasing the efficiency of radiation. H20 is a stronger heat trapping gas than CO2. 

But yeah...this process will have a much stronger influence on nighttime as opposed to daytime. This is because H20/CO2 does not absorb shortwave radiation emitted by the Sun that well, but they do absorb longwave radiation emitted by the Earth very well. (Note: I know CO2 does...not sure if this is true for H20 as well. Don't remember).

Yea, totally on board with this....but I am willing to bet that if you examined purely daytime max temps, the northeast is not leading the GW charge.

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58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s also not necessarily the lack of snowfall. That has increased. I think they meant snowpack. 
I’ll have to dig into the data to see for myself. 

I understand that...I know they meant snow cover days, which is correct. 

What I said was that if a warmer gulf stream is leading to warmer summers, then its due to warmer night time mins.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Warmer summers have been brought to us by dews and its effect on night lows I think. 
 

Part of that is likely due to warmer waters off the east coast. But it’s also been a favorable pattern over the last several summers to bring the warmth and humidity up the coast. 

Yes, this I agree with....all I meant. I never debated lower snow cover days....if they had said lower snowfall, then that would be incorrect....at least to this point.

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I may be wrong on this, but I feel like global warming would have more dire consequences faster if it were not so heavily weighted in nighttime mins. This is why I feel like sometimes there is a contingent of folks that overstate and catastrophize the impact.

I understand that eventually it will matter more, but this is probably why our snowfall hasn't suffered to this point (well, everyone's except mine)....the fact that it radiates to 15 instead of 10 on a clear night isn't exactly a deal-breaker. However, the increased insolation that is not emitted does in fact result in less snow cover via a larger window of time for melting.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand that...I know they meant snow cover days, which is correct. 

What I said was that if a warmer gulf stream is leading to warmer summers, then its due to warmer night time mins.

Oh I knew what you meant...but the article mentioned snowfall which over the last 30 years, has increased. 

I do think the overall high temps have increased, but I think you are right WRT the mins. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Oh I knew what you meant...but the article mentioned snowfall which over the last 30 years, has increased. 

I do think the overall high temps have increased, but I think you are right WRT the mins. 

Yes, they have increased, but not as drastically as the mins. Just taking the overall mean temp makes it appear worse than it is for that reason.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Personally, I like the change so far....less high end cold, which is obnoxious, and less days of pedestrian snow cover in exchange for a higher frequency of extreme events.

I'll take that trade off....keep the 5 days of 3" snow cover and give me the 2'+ blitz.

Exactly! I'll take the extreme events..

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Personally, I like the change so far....less high end cold, which is obnoxious, and less days of pedestrian snow cover in exchange for a higher frequency of extreme events.

I'll take that trade off....keep the 5 days of 3" snow cover and give me the 2'+ blitz.

Oh you mean you don't like Kevin's 3" of crusty pack fetish?

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