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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


Torch Tiger
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2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

In spring to early summer maybe. But fall and winter seems among the fastest. Averaging it, over course of a year we are among the fastest.

What’s really interesting is we are at the tail of a cold water current, from the Arctic, whereas the UK is at the tail of a warm water tropical current. The UK has been seeing significantly warmer summers (++AN) but cold winters (N to AN); we have been seeing significantly warmer fall and winters (++AN) with warm summers (N to AN). The causality (net increase) is quite similar, but the seasonality is flipped.

There may be a cogent physical explanation for this…

 

I'd like to see the data supporting that....I find it hard to believe that the northeast US is warming faster than most of the rest of the globe.

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42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Heavy heavy summer as far as the eye can see. 

there shouldn't be any complaints about this Summer at all. Everyone has gotten mostly what they wanted. I prefer COC days, others like the swampy ass dew days. Other than how dry it's been, I think this is one of the best summers I can recall

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Might be kind of bunny to test the '9 by 9' then the later, the '10 after 10' rule of thumbs for making 100. 

Low probability for making that number, even though the 850s would support 99.7 ha.   Looks like regional lows dropped more proficiently. All the way down to 68 at BED was not expected..  For heat enthusiastic trophy foisting, that's not an elevated enough launching temp for contention - usually.  They have since quickly returned to 84 from that temp by 8:35 ...which is solid early performance comeback.   

BOS was 77, which is better.  They've bounced to 86 by 8:35 already...so they got a shot at the 9 by 9 there.  It's also really our first insert into W ejected air ...and the night clearly did not have this air mass under the decoupling - so that may cause for greater diurnals/surging.  Those rule of thumbs are not limitations... Anyway, machine numbers from MEX and MAV are 97'ie as race winners, so it's long odds for KBDL/KFIT/KASH/KBED wearing hunderwear

 

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29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Might be kind of bunny to test the '9 by 9' then the later, the '10 after 10' rule of thumbs for making 100. 

Low probability for making that number, even though the 850s would support 99.7 ha.   Looks like regional lows dropped more proficiently. All the way down to 68 at BED was not expected..  For heat enthusiastic trophy foisting, that's not an elevated enough launching temp for contention - usually.  They have since quickly returned to 84 from that temp by 8:35 ...which is solid early performance comeback.   

BOS was 77, which is better.  They've bounced to 86 by 8:35 already...so they got a shot at the 9 by 9 there.  It's also really our first insert into W ejected air ...and the night clearly did not have this air mass under the decoupling - so that may cause for greater diurnals/surging.  Those rule of thumbs are not limitations... Anyway, machine numbers from MEX and MAV are 97'ie as race winners, so it's long odds for KBDL/KFIT/KASH/KBED wearing hunderwear

 

Yea, I remember hearing on the news that it would remain in the 70's, and then being surprised that it was already down to 70 a bit after midnight...got down to 66.0 IMBY....granted I radiate pretty well, but the night definitely didn't retain the heat as well as forecast even on a regional scale.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Mid to upper 90s this weekend?

Have only seen the operational Euro and GGEM solutions from 00z ... 

GGEM is as usual between 1 and 3C cooler at 850 mb ...all regions, comparing to the Euro by the time Sunday rolls around in that guidance comparison.   Not sure if that actually atones for a 'cool bias' per se - or if the Euro is warm bias but it is what it is as of 00z.   I haven't seen the GFS yet ...because of it's remarkable ability to construct solutions that are insidiously antithetic to my personal analysis... 

No but as far as the Euro, it has 23 C at 850 mb, by Sunday evening, along a Newark NJ to Portlandia Maine axis.   For the general audience, the adiabat from that sigma level runs down to 38C @ 1000mb ... as the gross  read. That does not take into consideration the slope temp at the very bottom, where the 2-meter low income class spouse beater temperature roasts tolerances.

Taking into consideration those 'realities' ... that 38C(101.4) would likely max 104.. or even '06, if unadulterated sun and idealized wind trajectories manifest at at LGA and BOS ... (hint, think about the civility that exists between those points). 

Heat's fragile as a guided metric... One cirrus plume poorly timed and it's a 97 instead..   Or if the wind is very light, so much thermal restoring force causing the winds to back SSE for 10 minutes and its game over. The last time we saw 850s of that Euro modeled genera, along with the fact that it also has <50% 700, 500, and 300 mb RH ( meaning, pure sun) was in 2011, when 103 was registered at Logan. 

Another aspect I am noticing in the Euro and GGEM and the GFS as of late .. .they are all tending to elevated the WAR heights.  In fact, this Euro run beyond D3 really tries to have the heights hemispheric nodal geopotential 'dome' over Bermuda.   Meanwhile, the flow super structure is some kind of N based quasi +PNA of modest construction.  You have a hot pattern below 45N being compressed by an eastern Canadian cool circulation mode.  The GGEM can't resist and suppresses all heat - which is unlikely. The Euro may be too excessive.  

Perhaps the GFS will be a compromise..   Off to go analyze it and it's ens mean to ferret out it's myriad of interesting ways it tries to mock me without being noticed... You know your life is fulfilled with worthy- riveting substantive value when you're being trolled by a f'n forecast model -

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28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I remember hearing on the news that it would remain in the 70's, and then being surprised that it was already down to 70 a bit after midnight...got down to 66.0 IMBY....granted I radiate pretty well, but the night definitely didn't retain the heat as well as forecast even on a regional scale.

Radiated surprisingly well here.  Today's launch point is almost 10° lower than yesterday's low of 66, though today starts drier so may heat faster.  That 66 minimum is the first 60+ morning of the year.  Only 2009, the summer of stratiform rains, had to wait longer, to 7/28, for a 60+.

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Wiz  .... do you seriously need to ask the question, 'why so hard to get an EML in here,' or are you just hand throwing  -

We are the farthest from the source.  That is why.  That was always why. That will always BE why - for ever. 

Until such time as a plate displacement event ... reorders the surface of the Earth such that SNE ends up where Chicago is, we will always get the leftover stench after a 2000 mile journey span of ill-reputing air masses ... 

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