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May 2022 Thread


weatherwiz
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The low is filling as it is also moving S ... Wind dies for both reasons.  

Tomorrow might be nicer than we've been advertised.  Not warm by any measure, but we have broad sky lights opening up here in the interior N of the Pike...a trend that's likely to continue and be more pervasive tomorrow given where all's heading. 

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Still holding a 78 to 88 ( top down)  type look from Thur - Monday ...    That occurring would certainly be a stark jolt for a region that's pinged a roasting 73 only three times since March.  

Not sure a buy the Euro's steady diet of BDs Thurs on...  Takes risk at this time of year, I know - but it appears to artificially lower maritime heights/bully in, which is a bias for that model in the mid range... That's what causes that to happen.

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These are as a result of dry air layers penetrating the rain seeded sounding. 

Evap cooling off the surface of hydro meteoroids  can cause them to freeze. It’s not the same as as a winter sounding. This occurs just about once every spring when large differentials between T and TD … having wet bulb below freezing. 

I’ve seen it do this as warm as 50 F at the sfc. Light rain with sleet pellets mixed in. Usually it happens at the onset. This now is happening as dry air invading after the fact. 

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15 hours ago, tamarack said:

Good conditions to translate that to 2m warmth, too - low dews, early August sun angle, trees <5% leaf-out (a guess for Thurs-Fri; <1% currently).  That last has 2 effects, very little transpirational moisture to be heated and sun beating on the leaf litter to add warmth from below.  We hit 89 on 5/2/2001 (with zero leaf-out, as pack lasted thru 4/23); can we sniff 90 next week?

I still remember how warm it got in March 2012, well into the 80s if I remember right. It was full dead winter landscape and foliage which made it look unsettling. Oddly enough, a similar situation happens out here where we have our best chance to get the highest heat before the solstice. At that point, the westerlies have moved far enough north that we start getting moisture incursion from the gulf of Baja California and even the Gulf of Mexico depending on the pattern. With that comes the monsoon months of July, August, and September.

The GFS runs since yesterday have unfortunately been cutting down those 850 temps in ME. It even shows a backdoor hitting on saturday now, and after that the ridge looks to get gutted by the remains of that stubborn cutoff associated with the terrible conditions in SNE today. Seems the ECMWF is showing much of the same.

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6 hours ago, Saguaro said:

I still remember how warm it got in March 2012, well into the 80s if I remember right. It was full dead winter landscape and foliage which made it look unsettling. Oddly enough, a similar situation happens out here where we have our best chance to get the highest heat before the solstice. At that point, the westerlies have moved far enough north that we start getting moisture incursion from the gulf of Baja California and even the Gulf of Mexico depending on the pattern. With that comes the monsoon months of July, August, and September.

The GFS runs since yesterday have unfortunately been cutting down those 850 temps in ME. It even shows a backdoor hitting on saturday now, and after that the ridge looks to get gutted by the remains of that stubborn cutoff associated with the terrible conditions in SNE today. Seems the ECMWF is showing much of the same.

Five warmest days in Farmington, Maine since records began in 1893:

83  3/22/2012
82  3/21/2012
80  3/20/2012
79  3/20/1903
78  3/18/2012
Only 2 other March days milder than 74, both in the mid 1940s.

Upper 20s here this morning, 5th day with a frost this month.  Average is 6, range is 2 to 12.

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