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May 2022 Thread


weatherwiz
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At the start of this thread, May is only 6-days away which means the start of severe weather season is right around the corner!!! April has proven to be a rather typical spring month here in New England with some rather warm days, some rather chilly days, days with rain, and even some snow. As we head towards the month of May, there are some conflicting signals within the long-range guidance. If one just looks at an averaged 500mb pattern you can draw conclusions, but at the end of the day those conclusions will probably not be accurate. The conflicting signals likely correlate to the fact that the pattern across North America will continue to remain volatile and perhaps dominated by a series of ridges/troughs propagating through the country. One of the biggest factors may be how the pattern is configured around the Arctic (most notable the NAO/AO). Typically, these indices start having less influence on the pattern as you move through spring, but they can certainly shape the pattern and play big factors through May. And unfortunately, there are conflicting signals on the evolution of these indices moving through May. Let's just hope that whatever happens, we can get into some patterns which usher in big heat, high humidity, EML's, and lots of convection!!

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May actually see some convective potential sometime during the first half of next week...perhaps multiple days with potential. Some pretty decent shortwave energy coming in from the West with strong flow aloft. There will be opportunity to warm sector too with an established 850 low passing well to our West. Not much (right now anyways) showing up to prevent warm front from penetrating north at the surface (obviously can always change). 

image.thumb.png.0a1516533bb4de06cef962df123e0c96.png

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

May actually see some convective potential sometime during the first half of next week...perhaps multiple days with potential. Some pretty decent shortwave energy coming in from the West with strong flow aloft. There will be opportunity to warm sector too with an established 850 low passing well to our West. Not much (right now anyways) showing up to prevent warm front from penetrating north at the surface (obviously can always change). 

image.thumb.png.0a1516533bb4de06cef962df123e0c96.png

Would like some fireworks on my bday.

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On 4/28/2022 at 10:39 AM, weatherwiz said:

That is one monster off off to the north. Looks like it's going to work hard at suppressing any systems. Terrible

hopefully it suppresses that garbage cutoff well south of us so we end up dry

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27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Already 51° off of 32.9°.

Can you move those high temp aspects Scott and I just had over in the Anus thread to this one?  I didn't realize we had a May thread going -

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Yeah ... this date could take first place in the diurnal recovery competition, no doubt.  

33 to 36 at all home sites within a couple clicks of mi casa here in Ayer, where are all not 58, averaged.   I man 20 to 24 recoveries by 9:15 am is like almost desert replace rates.  Gettin a nerd chubby

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I'm not 'as' pessimistic about this week.   I'm between Scott, vs Kevin's spin tactic ( his intent and reason for doing so a complete mystery -).... but closer to Scott's side. 

I think we get into a light passage of showery rains tomorrow night and mid week, but I don't see the days troubled by those blue hydrostatic crayon lines.

In fact, as an aside ... two days of runs consistently showing 0 snow blob ptypes on QPF charts anywhere in New England, is a stunning achievement either by the GFS, or just this 2022's particular spring's learning curve.

Anyway, I'm not sure what the sun quota will be in between these maintenance rains, but with 850s above 0 now through all periods, it wouldn't take long to pop 10 F on top of a static morass - I mean just having that built in is a huge milestone - and notice?  The month of Anus has to officially close before the models paint a portrait like that?  

I'm kidding but I'm glad it's over.  

The extended still looks like a pretty coherent paradigm shift takes place across the hemisphere.  Moving toward -PNA,  +(AO/NAO) in tandem is a huge total scaffold change from erstwhile Neutral/positve PNA with -(AO/NAO)   Pretty much a diametric indicator.  This was hinted off and on over the last week... Often times, major shifts do that before the telecon's bomb the current mode out there in time.  The operational runs fight it too... The GGEM is the only one that really shows what that total manifold is capable of ...with 588 dm non -hydrostatic bubble inflating to almost DTX out there at the end of it's run.  That model is still a Dr Jeckle and Hyde product and can't be trusted, but it is better than it used to be.  Given that it fits the telecon of the GEF/cross-guidance suggestion, and the oper Euro and GFS have at least some semblance - though clearly they are doing everything electronically possible to damp it out for whatever reason... ( the anti- DIT factor? )... Anyway, model solutions "like" the GGEM's D8-10 movement might emerge going forward. 

Could be a warm mid month... And I'd also forward that 'over top' heat waves have been getting more common in recent decade springs.   interesting...

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23 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Looks like 0.5 to 1.0" for most of SNE on the Euro.    Nothing big, but we take

yeah... and the rain we had recently - all told I don't think it's ( fairly ) been that bad.  I'll admit, as bad as the March 20 - May 20 time of year is both notorious, and earned for climate, we haven't head any of those week to 10-day long protracted wheel of wet deals that can often also be a part of the prison term. 

This years rendition of shit time of year has been more related to unrelenting poorly timed, cold, with what wind there has been, during day light hours related - it was taking the sun on mono e mono. But it has been particularly acute, despite data - sorry... the data and the daily weather experience do not always reflect one another.   

Said climo sites are barely plus for April ... T and P.  Thing is, the summer's liable to be hot.  That's my personal leaning idea for now... Responsibly?  A couple of good 2-3" basin-wide griping, pissy post doom and gloom mood events before that heat arrives would be better for the region.  Not likely get it... no.

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