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3/12 Event: Winters Last Hurrah at Least East of Mountains


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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re being a little dramatic…shocking. But this is another event where the track of the wave is actually pretty good, the airmass seemed good enough, yet it’s underperforming outside elevated areas. Sound familiar??? 

MBY flipped to snow earlier than progged, but we didn’t get as much of the heavies that were expected. That’s what hurt us - not boundary temps or whatever. Not everything can be blamed on warmer background state.

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re being a little dramatic…shocking. But this is another event where the track of the wave is actually pretty good, the airmass seemed good enough, yet it’s underperforming outside elevated areas. Sound familiar??? 

Did it really underperform because of temperatures, though? It felt like we just never got the rates advertised, at least at my house. I never saw anything close to 2 inches per hour, and even when it did pick up, it was short-lived. I'll end up with a little under 2 probably. Getting the 4-6+ the models showed was always going to mean 2-3 hours of very heavy snow because of the progressive nature of the system. That just didn't happen.

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Going to go with 4.5" as a total.  Just under 5" on the car hood...4.25" on the picnic table.

Will have to see if we can add any additional in the next few hours.  

I'm at work today so my daughter is doing the measuring for me. She said 4.75 so I feel pretty confident in that if your getting about the same.

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not to mention...the rates weren't that good in the metros, right? Combine that with being almost 60 yesterday and March sun...can ya really use this as an example of the theory? This is kinda par for the course, imo

Yeah, I had solid rates from 8:00-8:45 and then for about 15 minutes around 10:30. Just didn't quite get the thump we needed. The 60 degrees before is mostly irrelevant honestly, March sun definitely hurt in the sense that when things trailed off a fair bit of progress was lost. 

For the record, I enjoyed this storm. Advisory likely not verified but I'm convinced I had "near-blizzard" conditions for a few minutes.

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Just now, mattie g said:

MBY flipped to snow earlier than progged, but we didn’t get as much of the heavies that were expected. That’s what hurt us - not boundary temps or whatever. Not everything can be blamed on warmer background state.

I agree. This was always a wave or 2 moving along a progressive cold front. The guidance generally depicted a relatively brief area of forcing, and somewhat localized, behind the front in the colder air.  We suck at anafrontal, regardless of temps.

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not to mention...the rates weren't that good in the metros, right? Combine that with being almost 60 yesterday and March sun...can ya really use this as an example of the theory? This is kinda par for the course, imo

Not sure 60s yesterday has anything to do with it. If it was cooler yesterday, the same fate would have been met. The rates alone was the problem for the metros to be able to overcome the march sun

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Not sure 60s yesterday has anything to do with it. If it was cooler yesterday, the same fate would have been met. The rates alone was the problem for the metros 

That's true. I mean...could we say March sun angle as well? It seems like in March you almost really need heavy rates--especially during the daytime. So overall I'm not sure today can be used as an example of it getting harder to snow. Don't think this woulda worked 20 years ago, lol

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Not sure 60s yesterday has anything to do with it. If it was cooler yesterday, the same fate would have been met. The rates alone was the problem for the metros 

Exactly. My temp is still dropping and down to 30 now. It was 31-34 while snowing most of the morning. With heavy rates, that will cave roads even in mid March after a warm day. 31-34 with alternating moderate to light rates with a few moments of heavier rates is not going to get it done.

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

that does suck, I assumed it kinda sucked there in the 1.5" inches but complaining about it sense. sorry about that.

I mean I wasn’t expecting much but I did think I’d get maybe a 2 hour period or so of rates that potentially overcame the ground and coated everything over, but never got close to that happening. Is what it is, I kinda know what to expect in my area unless we get a more uniform storm 

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Precip always moves out quicker than models depict in these situations. One reason I didn't post much and was skeptical even as the trends were colder sooner. Experience tells us how this ends up with a progressive/positively oriented trough the majority of the time.

Sunny here now!

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

Hmmm. Liking the look of that radar backfilling out west of me. Looks like I was early to call this one. 

It's not completely done, but accumulating snow requires some persistent rates during the day now. Probably looking at periods of light to moderate snow. Best chance would be a late afternoon squall as the temps continue to drop. HRRR was suggesting that on earlier runs but I haven't looked at guidance recently.

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My :weenie: hallucinations radar says look for some back building down to the south and southwest. Maybe one last shot of fluff to send us off to t-shirt and flip flop land? If not, it’s been (and always is) a fun roller coaster of winter here. I like severe season too, but ultimately my heart belongs to my favorite winter weather team. No matter what character you play in this ongoing yearly saga, you’re all the best. :) Cheers!

 

 

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's not completely done, but accumulating snow requires some persistent rates during the day now. Probably looking at periods of light to moderate snow. Best chance would be a late afternoon squall as the temps continue to drop. HRRR was suggesting that on earlier runs but I haven't looked at guidance recently.

That band filling in out west looks pretty solid. Might be able to steal another inch. And the quality of the snow should be better as well. Temps are nice and cold out here. We'll see. 

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Zero accumulation in Canton, outside of a dusting on garbage bins. Nothing really falling right now. Don't think anything will come of this unless a good heavy band comes in with whatever manages to fill in, but that would probably only leave the area with a dusting. Batting .000 with anafrontal systems this winter... and most winters. At least some of the heavier sideways stuff has been nice to watch.

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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re being a little dramatic…shocking. But this is another event where the track of the wave is actually pretty good, the airmass seemed good enough, yet it’s underperforming outside elevated areas. Sound familiar??? 

He's being Ji.. just play along once for fun

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