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3/12 Event: Winters Last Hurrah at Least East of Mountains


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You can see the tight vorticity round the base in SW VA. The current shield will move out then unstable upper levels take over. Usually pretty unpredictable but unless steady/heavy I don't see much more than an inch at best after the synoptic shield moves out. SnowTV is always fun tho. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You can see the tight vorticity round the base in SW VA. The current shield will move out then unstable upper levels take over. Usually pretty unpredictable but unless steady/heavy I don't see much more than an inch at best after the synoptic shield moves out. SnowTV is always fun tho. 

Snow squalls later would be fun - but the more recent NAM nest and HRRR runs have been kind of meh anywhere east of the mountains. 

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Wind gust obs haven't been terribly high around the entire area. I think that Quantico gust earlier was the highest I've seen and it wasn't super high. 

One thing I noticed leading up to the event is the wind gust products on many of the models were pretty underwhelming compared to some of our other big wind events. Many didn't even have widespread gusts above 45mph. 

ETA: Not saying it's not gusty - but the 55mph forecasts always seemed a bit high. 

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1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Been kinda slow to pickup here in Monkton. Pavement not even close to being covered. 

I yeah I’m pretty disappointed so far. Hopefully as this is still pulling northeast these bands condense and the rates uniformly pick up. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Snow squalls later would be fun - but the more recent NAM nest and HRRR runs have been kind of meh anywhere east of the mountains. 

It's a confusing system in some ways. It's layered like a sandwich longitudinally with the vertical approach. We usually fail hard with these. It's very rare to get strong synoptic support like this after fropa. The upper level support appears to catch up on the mesos and keeps the shield fairly healthy for a number of hours. Does that happen tho? NW flow and departing slp without a closed ull low is tuff to trust. Well see 

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Temps still slowly nudging down. Down to 31 now, but the snow on the edges of the driveway is actually starting to melt. March sun starting to do its work with lighter rates and a thinner cloud deck. Any hope of road accumulation seems over. Fitting end to the season.

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