Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[TalcottWx]

I feel like we lost sight of the fact it's the day of the storm. But hard not to, when there is an all time rugpull like that. All jokes aside here. I busted Phins balls and he absolutely called it. He can stay. 

 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

I feel like we lost sight of the fact it's the day of the storm. But hard not to, when there is an all time rugpull like that. All jokes aside here. I busted Phins balls and he absolutely called it. He can stay. 

 

I've seen it all so last minute guidance swings don't phase me.

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

FWIW, From Bernie Rayno, great Accuweather meteorologist:

“BTW what you are seeing in modeling with minor changes is classic  WINDSHIELD WIPER EFFECT..Stay in the middle and don't get pushed around. The overall pattern and snowstorm is unchanged”

Seems like sound advice.  Here out on far NW fringe of storm, I am just pulling for something memorable to play out in ENE.  Enjoy.

[rgwp96]

46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That’s still a nice storm 

[forkyfork]

let's spill a bunch of oil on the atlantic east of delaware and set it on fire

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Give it until 00 UTC tonight to lower expectations.

Let the storm fully materialize so that data assimilation can work its magic.

I'm not surprised the ECMWF altered its track. Initializing a (relatively) course modeling system (9km, I believe) with a developing/phasing, southern shortwave must be challenging to resolve/parameterize. See the below comment from an NCAR employee: 

I'm more concerned about the mesos depicting the dual low look, but it's perhaps still a little too early for them as well.

A NCAR employee saying that the grid resolution of the model that beats the US's own nwp month after month after month shouldn't be used is kind of rich, tbh.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

oh to be born a dendrite and immediately crushed to pieces by the wind

So many billions more spawned. 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I feel like we lost sight of the fact it's the day of the storm. But hard not to, when there is an all time rugpull like that. All jokes aside here. I busted Phins balls and he absolutely called it. He can stay. 

you, on the other hand, have been summoned to the principal's office immediately.

[CoastalWx]

I'm so perplexed lol. 

[CT Rain]

Pretty sizable jump east on the EPS with with the low center and total QPF.

[forkyfork]

i'm salty. wait til i have a few drinks tonight

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, forkyfork said:

i'm salty. wait til i have a few drinks tonight

Why wait that long?

[RI Rob]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Pretty sizable jump east on the EPS with with the low center and total QPF.

No, stop please.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Pretty sizable jump east on the EPS with with the low center and total QPF.

Take em down 

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm so perplexed lol. 

did the atlantic get too warm?

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What?

I misunderstood one line, nevermind

[TheSnowman]

Eating Pretzels, Palmiers, and watching 5 Humming Birds while I try to reorganize some of what I canceled out here, and watch people try to push the 2 Lows together on this thread to save the storm.  Such a sad situation.  

[bristolri_wx]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

A NCAR employee saying that the grid resolution of the model that beats the US's own nwp month after month after month shouldn't be used is kind of rich, tbh.

I don't believe that's what the NCAR employee is saying...

[RI Rob]

NAM's going to save the day. I have faith! 

[Great Snow 1717]

6 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

This is partially a commentary on the modern news cycle, the need to be first and gain eyes, and the ease at which model output has now become accessible.

In my opinion, even when there is model agreement prior, publicly making available snowfall amount forecasts or maps 18-24 hours prior to an event is irresponsible. We’ve seen time and again how things can shift, and even when Mets explicitly state this people often focus simply on the numbers. 

My two cents: There needs to be a step back to speaking in generalities and the impact, rather than the amount.

-Significant

-Moderate

-Low

Agree!!...it's an ever growing problem. One of the Boston stations had a reporter doing a live shot outside of a  closed Shaws at 530 this morning...

[JC-CT]

Just now, bristolri_wx said:

I don't believe that's what the NCAR employee is saying...

well that's probably because I have no idea what he's talking about

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Pretty sizable jump east on the EPS with with the low center and total QPF.

So... Do you think this is just part of the windshield wiper affect?  Still feel ok with the latest totals? ( I know... Theres never a guarantee ). 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Pretty sizable jump east on the EPS with with the low center and total QPF.

What I was afraid of heading to 18z. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

A NCAR employee saying that the grid resolution of the model that beats the US's own nwp month after month after month shouldn't be used is kind of rich, tbh.

The NCAR modeling folks are extremely bright, but have no idea how to effing forecast.

[dryslot]

29 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Tell them to look out the plane window and count how many Ls they see. 

Tell them to bag them up and sprinkle them over ACK.

[subdude]

30 minutes ago, dabru said:

Just east of the southern tip of Quabbin here and I must say this has been a great thread so far. 

This set up may be a huge win for me on a bust in my area, owning 4 liquor stores business will be huge today as people prepare and then tomorrow I will get tons of crying weenies looking to drown their sorrows! WIN _WIN 

The brown water must be moving off the shelves at record pace. 

[CT Rain]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

So... Do you think this is just part of the windshield wiper affect?  Still feel ok with the latest totals? ( I know... Theres never a guarantee ). 

I think I'm too high in the Hartford area. Hard to keep 12-20" when you have a pretty notable jump east with the mid level low centers especially.

[Greg]

1 minute ago, RI Rob said:

NAM's going to save the day. I have faith! 

I'm not even going there.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

6 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I feel like we lost sight of the fact it's the day of the storm. But hard not to, when there is an all time rugpull like that. All jokes aside here. I busted Phins balls and he absolutely called it. He can stay. 

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Why wait that long?

Exactly. Already started, lol

[subdude]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i'm salty. wait til i have a few drinks tonight

This place will be lit tonight.