Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Baroclinic Zone]

Well that was an epic 18z Euro run.  I'm mentally exhausted right now after the last 24-36hrs  of tracking.    Gonna stay up for the 00z NAM and call it a night.

[msg112469]

BECS activated!

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

With all due respect that is no clown map and quite plausible. Conservative in my estimate. LOL

WeatherModels.com kuchie map I'm sure is higher.  It's all in the algorithm.

[dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

It's been moving steadily NW last 24 hours. Hopefully it has a couple more in it.

Don't need much and i think its still has some.

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Fwiw, does someone have the 500 height anomaly correlation scores that show all the major models? I seem to have lost my link for it and a search around the ghastly ncep site (very user-unfriendly) and google has proved useless. 

I think cmc tracks them

[moneypitmike]

29 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

A Sam masterpiece

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Holy smokes. 

the two most memorable posts for this entire lead up came from Will.

1) Wow

2) Holy smokes

 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just model porn for now but Can YOU really trust the euro verbatim since you hate it so much? I’d like to see a nam run though that drops 40” in Albany, then I’ll get excited for a shot at something big.

You’re being ridiculous now. What are you/anybody gonna believe? Ya the Euro hasn’t been that good of late, but this is its bread and butter.  We gotta believe something…The NAM, The Euro, The GFS Caving…I mean you’re in denial now.  You’ve been beaten…it’s time to face reality Luke.  You bailed and have been struggling. But it’s ok now lol, it’s all gonna be ok. Looking at the pure meteorology of this thing tells the real story. 
 

 You didn’t experience 2/13, it can and does happen sometimes.  

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, RI Rob said:

Mashpee or stay in Boston. I keep going back and forth. May be a cooler environment to ride out the storm in the city?

Yeah but make sure you’re above the ground floor at the seaport 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Btw, does someone have the 500 height anomaly correlation scores that show all the major models? I seem to have lost my link for it and a search around the ghastly ncep site (very user-unfriendly) and google has proved useless. 

https://weather.gc.ca/verification/index_e.html

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think there is some ticks west left with this, And i know from 2015 that this ended up a bit north of where it was modeled inside the last 24 hrs so we will see how it goes, This is still a significant storm here and temps will remain single digits low teens throughout, Ratios should be decent  with this.

The Euro basically says 12-18 from Brian and Me over to you.  If it comes a little further north then you could reach 24.  It will be fun to come home to, but I will really miss being in the storm.  However, February looks like a pack building month.

[Bruschi]

Better stock up on some Tree House brewing IPAs...

[Damage In Tolland]

31 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Our first call for the event which is now less than 36 hours away. We pulled the trigger on high amounts for many of the reasons that have been mentioned endlessly on here the last 1000 pages. The 18Z GFS caving was a push we wanted to see in the right direction but can't ignore some of the red flags. It's been a frustrating hair pulling last few days to say the least. We'll issue a final call tomorrow afternoon.

Been working on a brand-new graphics suite for the company. There wasn't anything wrong with the old maps, just wanted to do a fresh new and more modern look.

Connecticut

Tri-state area & NWS watches

 

 

Love it dude! It’s yesterday now!

[The 4 Seasons]

Thats quite the bump in the qpf department past 3 runs. Banding is likely to offset that on the western edge given the mid-levels and track.

Really wish we had omega and H7 frontogenesis on the euro or even better an ability to download files for BUFKIT, im sure they would be wild to see.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

IPA’s for everyone here. On me!

At church, can't drink.

[snowdazed]

34 minutes ago, Vinny Findley said:

If that comes to fruition that a great yikes for us!!!

Yeah, I'm frankly amazed at some of the numbers I'm seeing for RI.

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s a widespread dumping.

[toller65]

The Euro basically says 12-18 from Brian and Me over to you.  If it comes a little further north then you could reach 24.  It will be fun to come home to, but I will really miss being in the storm.  However, February looks like a pack building month.

GYX and WCSH6 currently have about half of that, me thinks by morning their forecasts will be upped

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

[Brian5671]

what's the little hole over RI QPF wise caused by?

[CTFarmer]

Feb 2013 blizzard here in CT. Would be cool to rival it.

[clskinsfan]

Damn ya'll know how to do a dumping up here if that S verifies. Amazing run. Enjoy. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

https://weather.gc.ca/verification/index_e.html

Thanks that’s close but I was looking for the site that produces these images:

 

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

288 pages of the wildest roller coaster ride you will ever take in your life.

I stayed in my seat the entire ride. Saw a bunch of people that lifted their bars and fall out or jump yesterday . Reached my hand out to save them, but they let it go . Even flicked me off as they fell

[Hoth]

 

 

19 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Doesn't get much better than that for a solid chunk of the sub forum to be happy.

 

I have good feelings.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, Bruschi said:

Better stock up on some Tree House brewing IPAs...

I got my Wormtown Blizzard of ‘78 stockpile for this

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

At church, can't drink.

Grab the preachers wine!

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

what's the little hole over RI QPF wise caused by?

Corey.   Corey causes it

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Love it dude! It’s yesterday now!

Thank you. Yesterday was a wild ride and emotions we're high and low. We just didn't feel confident enough to throw out numbers but we did put out our own set of probability maps for >6 and >12 similar to the NWS. Props to those who pulled the trigger on bigger numbers yesterday. Still have a lot of runs to go so we all hope it holds/trends in the right direction, im sure a few NAM curve balls will be thrown in there the next 36, and will be ignored unless one of the more reliable models (EC) shifts as well.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Well that was an epic 18z Euro run.  I'm mentally exhausted right now after the last 24-36hrs  of tracking.    Gonna stay up for the 00z NAM and call it a night.

Yea dude. You guys out east are maxed out. Get sleep and prepare for the weekend.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

what's the little hole over RI QPF wise caused by?

climo

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I stayed in my seat the entire ride. Saw a bunch of people that lifted their bars and fall out or jump yesterday . Reached my hand out to save them, but they let it go . Even flicked me off as they fell

are you sure you weren't reading their finger backwards?