Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Torch Tiger]

slipping away.  hate to see it

[PhineasC]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEM wasn't a huge shift, its just matters so much to us...

Yes, not talking about E MA. Not even looking there on these runs; they are locked in and have been forever. 

[JC-CT]

I really hope this comes west. Just a few ticks. Whoa that's a big move west! It came west again! Hey, wow that's really, really west again. Okay, seriously, it can stop now. It will tick back east, it always does. We still have time for this to adjust. Okay we just lost the GFS. I can't believe this is happening. Fk this storm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Cmc move was much more than a tickle it was a sizable 75 mile or so Move ESE 

i didn’t look at ukmet but I’m guessing the same ...ooo about 125 plus mile shift ESE haha

Its shifted the deformation like 30-40mi se.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Yes, E Mass is fine. Only question is 15 or 30, but the models have been locked on that area for days now. It's everyone else outside the bubble that are swinging wildly.

I know. We are all guilty of this including me. I just think people are more prone to overreacting than ever for whatever reason. 

[78Blizzard]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

SE MA, not NE.

Last time I checked Rockport was NE MA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Yes, not talking about E MA. Not even looking there on these runs; they are locked in and have been forever. 

Yea, its maddening if you are on the edge....

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don’t know that E mass is locked at a foot 

Always a chance it moves even further east I guess. 

[Henry's Weather]

I just want to take a moment to acknowledge the absurd rate potential for this storm. To illustrate this point broadly, I've attached a sounding from the 12z 3km NAM. The column isn't completely saturated, but the DGZ is ridiculously long and the lift is also broadly strong, as opposed to spikes which move erratically within the column. Sorry for the crop, this site has a very low capacity to handle uploads, frustratingly enough

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Yes, E Mass is fine. Only question is 15 or 30, but the models have been locked on that area for days now. It's everyone else outside the bubble that are swinging wildly.

The potential for a very sharp cut off looms large and that probably doesn’t change between now and when it actually starts snowing.

Living where I do I have no jackpot fetishes but I do get very disappointed, when ski areas within an hour of my house,  do poorly and the CP gets hammered.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, JC-CT said:

I really hope this comes west. Just a few ticks. Whoa that's a big move west! It came west again! Hey, wow that's really, really west again. Okay, seriously, it can stop now. It will tick back east, it always does. We still have time for this to adjust. Okay we just lost the GFS. I can't believe this is happening. Fk this storm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Last time I checked Rockport was NE MA.

Okay, everywhere else in NE MA.

[Henry's Weather]

Que sera, sera. 

[42N72W]

Boston NWS cutting way back for Groton MA: 4-8”. Not good. We’re only 30 miles or so from the coast.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Amateur guess better sampling of downstream heights, which will affect course of upstream features.

But if you want more bang for your buck, do it in data sparse areas that are upstream. But I don't allocate where the money is going haha.

[Baroclinic Zone]

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Where is...”the demon” going 

guesses on euro at 12z

i think it holds serve from 6z which was a bit worse than 0z

[MJO812]

The ukie is a terrible model

How do you have those shifts close to an event ?

[The 4 Seasons]

FYI tropical tidbits had a major overhaul last night and now features free ecmwf data in 3 hour intervals and off hour runs and soundings. Some stuff is limited. 

 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

fyi to anyone wondering, I did figure out that when looking at the regional, the other states just don't show. the regional makes sense and extends into RI/ a little of CT

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

I disagree with that 1% chance of 18" here...strongly TBH. Lots of support for a good band here.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Damn. Shit gettin slashed left and right 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

FYI tropical tidbits had a major overhaul last night and now features free ecmwf data in 3 hour intervals and off hour runs and soundings. Some stuff is limited. 

 

yeah, no omega :/

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, 42N72W said:

Boston NWS cutting way back for Groton MA: 4-8”. Not good. We’re only 30 miles or so from the coast.

..and Fisher has upped his snowfall forecast....which seems a bit odd

[NorEastermass128]

What’s happening in here?

[Cyclone-68]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

I’d sign onto this 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The potential for a very sharp cut off looms large and that probably doesn’t change between now and when it actually starts snowing.

Living where I do I have no jackpot fetishes but I do get very disappointed, when ski areas within an hour of my house,  do poorly and the CP gets hammered.

I am still holding at 6-10 here. It's usually pretty easy for me to pull 6" in an east flow scenario even if the storm is mostly a miss. 

Still time for shifts to give us more precip, but window is closed on major impacts here. 

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Where is...”the demon” going 

guesses on euro at 12z

i think it holds serve from 6z which was a bit worse than 0z

"tickle east."

[radarman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I disagree with that 1% chance of 18" here...strongly TBH. Lots of support for a good band here.

yeah that map is LOL

 

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, 42N72W said:

Boston NWS cutting way back for Groton MA: 4-8”. Not good. We’re only 30 miles or so from the coast.

 

Yeah cut 'em way, way back.  Even that may be generous