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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah the Euro definitely has a weird evolutuion with that surface low racing NE with the convection. Not sure it makes a huge difference. 

Also it still closes off the 700mb low pretty early. 

What are your thoughts on the Euro still keeping this storm closer in? Do you feel it will track further east like the GFS. Such a big spread between the models 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
Just now, WinterWolf said:

I think you’re more correct than not Wiz. 

I try to consider as many different pieces as possible and not just focus on a few specific things. I guess with this sometimes I'll put too much emphasis on "red flags" but more times than not when there are red flags involved (and many) you're more than likely to see lower end totals than higher end. In this particular setup, I'm not so sure there are necessarily red flags as there are caveats. This really ultimately comes down to southern stream evolution and northern stream involvement. 

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subdude

subdude

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’ll wait until 0z but this is looking like 3-5” is a real possibility for NW MA if we start ticking further East the next 24 hours. 
The winter had been so bad,that at this point, the only way I’ll fully melt down is if there is a rug pull that gives me nothing and that is highly unlikely. 
 

If that's the case, I will be heading to TH in Deerfield on Saturday. 

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George001

George001

Posted
Posted
On 1/24/2022 at 4:51 PM, George001 said:

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark blizzard, it’s going to be will it be just inside the benchmark or hug the coast? My Initial thoughts are that the low will hug the coast, going from just east of Long Island, to over the cape cod elbow, and then going into the gulf of Maine, rapidly deepening as it comes up the coast. I am forecasting the low to deepen to the 960s. Since this is a preliminary forecast I am going to start conservative and adjust upwards if needed. 

NYC: 12-18 

Central to eastern long island: 16-20 

1-95 corridor, Boston, and interior se ma: 16-20

Worcester: 20-24

Berkshires: 24-28

all of CNE and NNE 20+
 

 

Might be a little too conservative, I’m going to make some adjustments after the 0z runs. 

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Folks are having a conniption in CT…Runway needs therapy lol. This is coming back west imo.  

I wanna fold and melt away at this point, but being 3 days away and only 150 miles from the goods keeps me grounded for now. We have seen big systems like this change in dynamics at this time frame and look like different animals once we get closer. So who knows, start low and hope for higher?

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

99.999999% of the time I am extremely conservative with snowfall forecasts but sometimes you gotta chuck high and far

 

25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Obviously it’s a first call…it will have to be adjusted going over the next couple days. 

 

i know, i know...different audiences, different objectives, different accountability, yada yada yada

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