Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

If this was Wednesday, Then some panic may set in.

I wouldn't say I am panicked....but not thrilled.

[Jt17]

At hr 117 Icon doesn't look too different than the last run and then it jumps like 400 miles due east, only to come back later, looks fishy (pun slightly intended)

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Well, I said I might have more runs to toss at 0z, so bye IKON.

We certainly got CON this run.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Heard lots of weenie excitement . Looked closer at this thing and it seems pretty easy to miss East out to sea . 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

RGEM actually ticked faster with the southern wave. would look like the ECMWF

Happy to see that

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Heard lots of weenie excitement . Looked closer at this thing and it seems pretty easy to miss East out to sea . 

HECS are usually easy to miss....that's why they are HECS

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Happy to see that

yeah, it's pretty noticeable too. not a tiny blip

[PhineasC]

Glad I am fairly hammered. 00z might suck. 

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't say I am panicked....but not thrilled.

I'm just watching for now, Weds i would have more concerns if the models that count are east.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I know but wouldn’t raobs be easy without recon for ridge position?

How many balloons get released 1000 miles offshore?

[dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Glad I am fairly hammered. 00z might suck. 

May want to pour another round of shots.

[Whineminster]

She gone, unfortunately. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

RGEM actually ticked faster with the southern wave. would look like the ECMWF

It seems everything else is locked and loaded. It’s just the handling of that southern S/W - very inconsistent model handling with that particular feature. Whether that gets ejected or stays behind is very critical and how this whole thing is going to evolve along ir astride the eastern seaboard. It doesn’t wanna consistently get ejected sometimes yes… sometimes it’s being left behind like in this recent icon run - it all but entirely abandons it which looks weird but who knows… 

 

[It's Always Sunny]

Had some spare time to put this together. Current modeled output resembles January 26-27, 2015 blizzard. Surprisingly most of these events occurred when the NAO was neutral-positive.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Kind of reminds me of the event from 3 weeks ago where people swore up down, left and right that taint was the major concern, and it ended up pretty Far East 

[DavisStraight]

19 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

ICON not looking great either so far.  WE may have a problem here,

Too early to have a problem, look at the ensembles and GFS and EURO

[wxsniss]

ICON made a big jump with handling of southern shortwave

At 12z Friday, was previously over TX, now it's way back to NM/AZ border

Not weighing it much compared to Euro / EPS, but another example of how sensitive this system is to the speed of that energy and downstream timing of phase

[Snowcrazed71]

Here's something to throw out at you guys. Looking back on other major blizzards are snowstorms, being 45 days out, doesn't anyone recall the same exact things we're seeing now with the models doing the windshield wiper effect. I almost think it's pretty rare to be 5 days out and have the models exactly where they are from 5 days out until the day of the storm. I'm curious what it was like during Nemo or Juno ( or any other big storm ). I think this may help settle down some people's anxiety if we talked about have storms and what we had seen at the same point in time

[PhineasC]

Not worried about ICON. LOL

That model literally never shows the right idea. It has been mostly a miss all along...

GFS will be the next big tell. CMC has been wound up so if it moves east that's a very bad sign too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Not worried about ICON. LOL

That model literally never shows the right idea. It has been mostly a miss all along...

GFS will be the next big tell. CMC has been wound up so if it moves east that's a very bad sign too.

Depends how much ....CMC has to come east to a degree...

[rimetree]

Isn't ICON basically another RGEM and NAM with regard to sensitivity. Seems like it would be more prone to jumping around at this lead.

[weathafella]

NAM is further west with the southern vort early on vs GFS

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So there’s someone missing the last couple days . Wolfie is gone. Either Dendy suspended him or his sled went off the trail in Waterville , ME  and we are in send help mode 

Was sledding boys. Been lurking mostly at night. But Thanks for the concern. Appreciate it. 
 

I’d rather have the Euro(and I haven’t been too impressed with it of late either) and It’s ensembles showing something good at the moment like it is, and the Icon be OTS where it is, than Vice versa.  Icon is a joke model no matter which way ya cut it. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Isn't ICON basically another RGEM and NAM with regard to sensitivity. Seems like it would be more prone to jumping around at this lead.

Nobody knows what that thing does which is why it’s not even mentioned at the nws or any serious outlets. We clown around with it here but that should be the extent of it. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nobody knows what that thing does which is why it’s not even mentioned at the nws or any serious outlets. We clown around with it here but that should be the extent of it. 

I think it's the only model with a triangular grid.

[Typhoon Tip]

We presently have 3/4 mi vis chalk dust

[PhineasC]

Just now, dendrite said:

I think it's the only model with a triangular grid.

Those triangles helping it predict our snowstorm?

[brooklynwx99]

GFS should be an improvement. more zonal out west, look at the wind barbs over Utah

[dendrite]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Those triangles helping it predict our snowstorm?

Think of how advanced the pyramids were.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No, Weds has been my time frame.

We both said that on Saturday and I agree but I still contemplate trends this far out.  Tomorrow night at this time, will give a much better idea if this has the potential to live up to the model porn.