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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So there’s someone missing the last couple days . Wolfie is gone. Either Dendy suspended him or his sled went off the trail in Waterville , ME  and we are in send help mode 

We just don’t know what happened, anything could happen…you never know. He could be anywhere, somewhere. Let’s see what happens.

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That's what I am worried about. The 18z GFS looked a lot like the many runs that showed this thing mostly offshore and wimpy for everyone but downcast ME. What if the coastal huggers were the burp runs after all and this things is destined for the fish?

The run still gave me like 16" tho so not sure why I am bitching so much. It's a trend that is worrisome.

I guess what I was saying is in a 4-5 day lead time, even with a recent model run trend (one run really) that goes a certain way... if the aggregate trend over 24 hours is still in a westward lean/direction this far out in time, we can build on the positive trend.  In the final 36 hours we can still have a move as big as the one at 6z and 12z from the previous day/evening... everyone just needs to keep it in striking distance.  

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's possible the previous 12-18 hours of runs were a bit of a burp and this keeps on being like yesterday's model runs.  Off-shore with E.NE in that cold conveyor belt... instead of the couple runs of highly amped members.  Who knows, should be fun tracking.  If we go back to yesterday's runs and look at 18z ensembles today, it's still a positive trend but not as drastic as 6z/12z today.

Agreed.  I'm not saying to toss them, but to treat them with some skepticism until you have a trend develop over multiple cycles.

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tiger_deF

tiger_deF

Posted
Posted

If the central pressure of this system ends up near the lower floor of modelled pressures (let's say ~960's mb), what could we expect for maximum winds? Given the current track Cape Cod would probably get the worst of it, but I could see a storm of this magnitude having a fairly large fetch of winds. 

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

1 run is a trend? Dude.  

EPS also shifted east, but I meant more if it continues into 00z. I expected this thing to shift back east somewhat all along and many hit me with weenie tags. We'll see. The envelope of solutions remains fairly wide, IMO. I think those saying a whiff is totally off the table are wrong.

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78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When all major Mets go into weenie mode like this folks… it’s beast mode full throttle. Mets whipping long dongs across cheeks 

Harvey Leonard earlier didn't sound like he was in weenie mode.  He's seen the rug pulled one too many times closer in than we are now.

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Jt17

Jt17

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

EPS also shifted east, but I meant more if it continues into 00z. I expected this thing to shift back east somewhat all long and many hit me with weenie tags. We'll see. The envelope of solutions remains fairly wide, IMO. I think those saying a whiff is totally off the table are wrong.

EPS shifted east? Says who. Doesn't look like it to me.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Harvey Leonard earlier didn't sound like he was in weenie mode.  He's seen the rug pulled one too many times closer in than we are now.

Yeah I probably wouldn’t go into weenie mode on the air until about 72-84 hours out. Though I’d definitely be dropping hints at D5. 

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
Just now, Jt17 said:

EPS shifted east? Says who. Doesn't look like it to me.

The mean was east for sure. It's clear from the precip maps.

This will likely all change at 00z, but clearly there have been wobbles east. It makes a big difference in some locations. 

Still plenty of time for all kinds of changes. 

I will admit I am paranoid about an east miss.

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Jt17

Jt17

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

The mean was east for sure. It's clear from the precip maps.

This will likely all change at 00z, but clearly there have been wobbles east. It makes a big difference in some locations. 

Still plenty of time for all kinds of changes. 

I will admit I am paranoid about an east miss.

I still don't agree, I'm not seeing that.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

The mean was east for sure. It's clear from the precip maps.

This will likely all change at 00z, but clearly there have been wobbles east. It makes a big difference in some locations. 

Still plenty of time for all kinds of changes. 

I will admit I am paranoid about an east miss.

Says the man with a 15" glacier and probably will get 6-10" no matter what. :lol:   

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

This is still 5 days away. And I’m not even in the bullseye for most models.

There may be more consensus and signal for this than prior modeled threats but I am not getting emotionally invested in this until about 84 hours out.

And you're not even in the bullseye!

Feel better, get a home test.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

DT says biggest risk is a whiff 

1. All of the weather models on Monday morning and at midday are now in strong agreement in showing a ruly impressive powerful LOW pressure area developing off the Southeast coast on Friday night. This LOW will track in a NNE or NE direction as it parallels the East coast. Because of the jet stream pattern across North America, additional energy coming down from western Canada into the Plains and the Midwest, there is little chance that this LOW pressure area is going to hug the coast and/ or come inland.

2. This means that the main risk that of what could go wrong is LOW tracking too far to the east and missing everyone on the coast

He also favors the major NE hit.

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

Says the man with a 15" glacier and probably will get 6-10" no matter what. :lol:   

I want all the snow. At least I am honest about it unlike some other NNE posters (cough... PF... cough) who pretend they are zen about it and would be super happy to see BOS get 3 feet while they have broken cirrus. :) 

j/k PF we love ya. SpinJ on the other hand considers snow in BOS to be a scientific abomination.

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Frigging mean, frigging mean 4.5 days out. Wow. Control run is 2 feet ya I know Control but 954 south of BID with a closed 510 damn

20220124_204054.jpg

Yeah pretty incredible

Haven't had time to more than lurk today... will be back for the late night shift

Vacillations between grazer and just outside BM are a good place to be

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I want all the snow. At least I am honest about it unlike some other NNE posters (cough... PF... cough) who pretend they are zen about it and would be super happy to see BOS get 3 feet while they have broken cirrus. :) 

j/k PF we love ya. SpinJ on the other hand considers snow in BOS to be a scientific abomination.

I know....everyone for himself when it comes to snow.  I just want a good event. All I ask.

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