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MLK 2022 Storm Potential


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, Sernest14 said:

curious on how well the HRRR generally does?  

Posted this for the Jan 3rd storm. This typically seems to be the bias, let's see how it holds up once the storm enters the 48hr HRRR run range.

On 1/2/2022 at 2:32 PM, Cobalt said:

At this time during storms where we're on the SE fringe, we look to the HRRR to have a colder and more SE solution compared to general guidance (and it ends up being wrong)

 

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The euro had another decent upper level low track and improved the surface a bit.  SLP tracks from ORF right up the bay then into eastern PA.  If we were to continue to get these minor adjustments and the upper low were to track another 30-50 miles southeast and the surface low were to track up just east of the bay, it would cut down on the low level warmth quite a bit...might increase the WAA thump some although I think the angle the WAA precipitation is coming in at has more to do with that then anything else at this point...but it would increase our chances of some snowfall Monday morning with the upper low pass also.  

On the WAA snowfall...We want the trajectory to be more south to north and less east to west with the angle of that WAA precipitation.  The more negative tilt that banding is the longer it will take to progress northeast and we will lose the column faster.  A further east track of the mid level and surface features could help with that some also.  There was a minor improvement in that regard this run over the previous one.  

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25 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Do we get any ice?  I say we because we are in similar locations

I feel like we're in a weird spot on this one. Especially considering Warrenton is under the WSW and we're not, but I'm only about 15 min from the county line. 

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10 minutes ago, jmk said:

I feel like we're in a weird spot on this one. Especially considering Warrenton is under the WSW and we're not, but I'm only about 15 min from the county line. 

Yeah but Weather doesn’t know county lines.  I think we’ll do ok for a not so great set up…but who knows …it’s been a blast so far this Jan

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2 hours ago, wolfpackwxDC said:

I balked on buying a generator after 2 big storms knocked out power here in Arlington last summer. Lights flickered during the snow last week. I think we will be getting said generator as soon as we can secure one!

Definitely a good thing to have! We lose power up here all the time. Could be 75 and sunny or 40 and rainy. A fair portion of my road is a 12% grade so I’m anticipating not going anywhere for a few days if the icing is bad enough. 

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