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December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen
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  • WxUSAF pinned this topic

6z gfs has a nice set up for next weekend  with a cold high pressing south and a storm to our southwest. 

A month from now it would be a nice set up to atleast get some front end love but it's still a little early. 

As is, it does gives some flakes to the northern crew  but it's over a week out so probably will be gone by 12z run.

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9 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

The blocking looks to hold on through mid Dec at least. None of us are getting buried the next 4 weeks. But I think snow is coming for the favored areas. Now give me a weenie. 

It really does seem like high-latitude blocking wants to stick around, which is obviously one big necessary ingredient if we want to score. If nothing else, it keeps hope alive.

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13 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

The blocking looks to hold on through mid Dec at least. None of us are getting buried the next 4 weeks. But I think snow is coming for the favored areas. Now give me a weenie. 

Wow, congrats....that is the most weenies I have ever seen for one post.

You asked for them, and you received lol

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25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That period after thanksgiving around D9-11 is interesting. Again just wish it was late December instead of late November.

Yeah I thought the op Euro 12z look was quicker to push the front south late on Thanksgiving vs. previous runs and GFS.  Has that CAD/overrunning sig.  long way to go and lots of calories to consume before next weekend. 

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That period from November 29th thru December 10th will see a cornucopia of s/w's that will be interesting to follow. 

Also, if anyone wants my take on winter for the Mid Atlantic this year, there are two periods I like for bigger events this winter; the first 3 weeks of December and most of the month of February into March. I do see a January thaw, once again considering the evolution of ENSO and the analogs based on the current unfolding of everything. I really like @40/70 Benchmark writeup and forecast and is very in-line with the progs from other LR forecasts from mets across the east. The core of the cold still needs to manifest itself after a late start, but it's certainly building over the Yukon, AK, and Siberia, so patience will be a virtue. 

Hopefully there are multiple storms everyone can cash, but I will warn, this could be a dud winter as well with the Nina, so expectations should be tempered. My forecast is slightly above normal temp wise with below normal snow, but potential for snow to bust high is legit 50/50 considering how things can break second half of winter. I'd say 80-90% confidence in AN temps and lean 60% below normal snowfall, but around 50-75% of normal with higher risk of ice west of the BR for later in season.  

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27 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That period from November 29th thru December 10th will see a cornucopia of s/w's that will be interesting to follow. 

Also, if anyone wants my take on winter for the Mid Atlantic this year, there are two periods I like for bigger events this winter; the first 3 weeks of December and most of the month of February into March. I do see a January thaw, once again considering the evolution of ENSO and the analogs based on the current unfolding of everything. I really like @40/70 Benchmark writeup and forecast and is very in-line with the progs from other LR forecasts from mets across the east. The core of the cold still needs to manifest itself after a late start, but it's certainly building over the Yukon, AK, and Siberia, so patience will be a virtue. 

Hopefully there are multiple storms everyone can cash, but I will warn, this could be a dud winter as well with the Nina, so expectations should be tempered. My forecast is slightly above normal temp wise with below normal snow, but potential for snow to bust high is legit 50/50 considering how things can break second half of winter. I'd say 80-90% confidence in AN temps and lean 60% below normal snowfall, but around 50-75% of normal with higher risk of ice west of the BR for later in season.  

I think the east based niña that is forming and -qbo that is now at 50mb should be not discounted. We hope it's for colder stormier, but laniñas can be duds with no cold no snow/ice. 

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  • WxUSAF changed the title to December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

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