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Potential Major Noreaster 10-26 through 10-27


ineedsnow
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13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, I have no interest in wind damage.

That being said, the highest gust I have found, on any Wunderground  station within 20 miles of here is 14mph.  

 

Wind is picking up,  but it's just a steady breeze.  My back yard is covered in Oak leaves.  One Oak is nearly completely changed to gold color. 

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4 hours ago, George001 said:

I love to see these big rainstorms at this time. I don’t know how true this is but I have heard that when there are big nor’easters in the fall, often times that is a good sign for winter because we are establishing a favorable storm track, and those wind driven rainstorms now will be severe nor’easters with blizzard conditions at times in the winter.

It can be, but not necessarily.....regardless, its nice to see the warm/dry pattern relenting to something more seasonable as the cold season begins.

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Just now, klw said:

dumb question:  if 977 mb is at 1000' on average, does it equate in this setup that 925 is around 2500' or does it not work like that?

It would depend on environmental pressure. So if you were near the center of a 970 low, clearly 970mb would be near the surface. In this case at KBOS...925mb is about 2000ft up. This is when it pays to have soundings to help determine the reference from millibars to feet.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All of it won't. I'm not ready to go insane with winds yet...still a lot to go right in order to mix. I am thinking 60-65 here. But could see higher if we can mix. 

Yeah I'm thinking Logan airport gets in the 60-65 range....but maybe they can crack 70. It's a good storm motion for them and the inversion does weaken some as it moves west....esp on the coast.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It can be, but not necessarily.....regardless, its nice to see the warm/dry pattern relenting to something more seasonable as the cold season begins.

Let's at least hope for upwelling as this thing passes by...at the very least, removal of upper ocean heat content so maybe won't be as quick to turn to rain at the coast.

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4 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said:

Let's at least hope for upwelling as this thing passes by...at the very least, removal of upper ocean heat content so maybe won't be as quick to turn to rain at the coast.

Catch 22....I don't mind it because it provides an explosive baro zone.....odds are the cp is porked anyway with a deep easterly fetch.

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I still am enamored some by the gesture of a coastal storm at all, really.    - I mean ones of such formulaic structures in autumns - per my own experience - seemed to have "meant" well for events deeper into the year.

Still ( and admittedly ..), it is hard to get a bead on whether this is that kind of foretell, or if it is just a part of the seasonal fore -lapse, -NAO's we've been seeing more of in recent autumns. 

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I still am enamored some by the gesture of a coastal storm at all, really.    - I mean ones of such formulaic structures in autumns - per my own experience - seemed to have "meant" well for events deeper into the year.

Still ( and admittedly ..), it is hard to get a bead on whether this is that kind of foretell, or if it is just a part of the seasonal fore -lapse, -NAO's we've been seeing more of in recent autumns. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_49.thumb.png.419dfc42c8bd0e68b3620e034fb27e71.pngSo...we do it again a week from Sunday?

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11 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_49.thumb.png.419dfc42c8bd0e68b3620e034fb27e71.pngSo...we do it again a week from Sunday?

I'd suggest 10 .. 20% above the background climate signal  -

The mass field indicators ( telecon spread ... ) lend to plausibility by pure statistics - which doesn't unfortunately offer any specific insight on how or what happens, but it is' purely based on the numbers. 

We have a maintenance -NAO bouncing around but holding negative, while the PNA is doings so positive.    But for me, the tell might be that the operational runs et al seem to have a more than less coherent +PNAP amplitude interval ..roughly Nov 3 to 11th in there.  So, it's like early detection - whether it is that above, or something else as yet to emerge, an 'emergence' some modest favoring over baseline. 

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