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September Discobs 2021


George BM
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39 minutes ago, high risk said:

For those of us north of DC, there seems to be a fairly decent signal in the 12z CAMs for showers/storms to develop over the upper Eastern Shore and Bay during the mid afternoon hours and rotate to the west into the Baltimore area and northern AA, Howard, and Montgomery Counties.

Does this include Delaware South of I-95 as well ? 

Mount Holly alluded to this potential in the recent 10:11 AM short-term AFDupdate, but didn't mention what the 12z CAMs showed. 

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6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

FF Watch.  
 

Looking at radar, I don’t see any way that the UHI over DC didn’t contribute to initiation.

I’ve gone down a rabbit hole on Bayesian statistics today for work so I wonder if you could do a test for that plausible hypothesis…

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Flash flood warning up for DC and nearby suburbs.

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
321 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

District of Columbia DC-Montgomery MD-Prince Georges MD-Arlington VA-
Fairfax VA-City of Alexandria VA-City of Fairfax VA-City of Falls
Church VA-
321 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
  District of Columbia...
  South Central Montgomery County in central Maryland...
  West Central Prince Georges County in central Maryland...
  Arlington County in northern Virginia...
  Central Fairfax County in northern Virginia...
  The City of Alexandria in northern Virginia...
  The City of Fairfax in northern Virginia...
  The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia...

* Until 930 PM EDT Thursday.

* At 321 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in
  the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen.

(snip)

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