Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,910
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    blackrdr69
    Newest Member
    blackrdr69
    Joined

Hurricane Ida's Remnants


SnowenOutThere
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, mappy said:

oh goodie. possible flooding rains, enhanced severe risk and a 10% tornado chance? oof. 

I see my productivity tomorrow is going to be shit

This was my thoughts as well! I am going to be a radar watching nut tomorrow! I am thinking of working late tonight so I can just watch and see what is happening tomorrow!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, high risk said:

               There will absolutely be potential for FLASH flooding in the DC-Baltimore region.     It's going to be a roughly 6 hour period late tomorrow with several bands of convection (with potential for TORs) that will have torrential rainfall.    I can certainly see some localized 3-4" totals that will create major problems for the evening rush hour.      Things will be worse if the warm advection rain later tonight ends up overperforming, which is always a possibility in this type of environment.

We had that almost every day last week and didn't even need a tropical system!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, MDphotog said:

Yeah, I know a lot of people are bummed, but out here in Frederick/Washington county we have been having heavy rain almost everyday for at least a week.  This could get really ugly out here for flooding.

Not down in SW Frederick Co. Last measurable rain was 10 days ago. I am worried that the rock hard ground will be the problem if we get a lot. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well this sounds a tad scary. Would be nice to not have trees falling on the house just as I prepare to leave the country for a much needed vacation.

Synoptically, this will be an impressive evolution as tropical and mid-latitude meteorology collide. The remnants of Ida are tracking steadily northeastward through the Tennessee Valley, and its cloud pattern remains well-defined on satellite. The most prominent feature of this setup is the strong (140 kt) upper jet streak which will build into northern New England on Wednesday. Ida`s remnants will track straight into its right entrance region, where large scale upper divergence is maximized. The system will begin to interact with the upper jet and the lingering frontal boundary currently over our area. After days of weakening over land as a tropical system, Ida`s remnants will reintensify as a highly dynamic, baroclinic low, but still with tropical moisture. Strong increases in low and mid level winds, frontogenetic forces, and low level convergence will allow a dramatic increase in the coverage and intensity of the rain shield as it moves in. Meanwhile, as the system takes on traditional frontal characteristics, an unstable warm sector will likely overspread southern portions of the area, contributing to severe weather potential. Overall, this continues to look like a high impact event. Details... First, a note on timing: The bulk of the impacts are expected to occur throughout the daytime Wednesday, Wednesday night, and early (mainly predawn) Thursday. This represents a slight earlier shift in timing. Severe weather concerns will peak from about mid afternoon to late evening Wednesday, around 2-10PM. Hydro concerns will focus more on the later afternoon through the overnight, with residual impacts into Thursday especially on slower responding rivers. Today`s guidance overall showed a small but definite trend northward with the highest QPF. However, that followed a small southward shift last night. So again, noise level changes. Our rainfall forecast was changed little, with a slight northward shift in the axis of heavier QPF and a slight trend upward overall in rainfall amounts as CAM guidance certainly supports the potential for a widespread swath of 4 to 6", with locally over 6" possible. This will be more than sufficient to bring both widespread flash/urban flooding and widespread main stem river flooding, discussed more in the hydrology section. One area where concern has increased today is severe weather potential. With the more amplified trend, wind fields are looking robust across the area from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. As mentioned, the warm sector of the system will overspread approximately the southern half of the area, and that is where severe weather concerns are maximized. Southeasterly surface flow will veer to to southwest with height, with good speed shear and directional shear in the lowest levels especially strong. There are some very concerning 31.12z CAM runs such as the 3km NAM, ARW, and HRRR. Soundings from those models over southern New Jersey and Delmarva show long, clockwise curved hodographs reflective of 0-1km SRH in the 200-300 range and 0-3km SRH in the 300-400 range, and 40 to 50 kt southwesterly bulk shear vectors. These values on their own are not enough to produce severe weather, but it is looking like they will be paired with 1000 to 1500J of SB CAPE across our southern zones, providing the necessary instability for convection to grow vertically enough to be dangerous. The very high shear and sufficient instability, combined with high moisture and associated low LCLs, would create a highly favorable environment for tornadoes. If these trends hold, several tornadoes, including a chance for a strong tornado, would be possible especially over southern New Jersey and Delmarva, with the risk decreasing to the north. Some convectively enhanced damaging straight line wind gusts are also possible.

  • Thanks 2
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Well this sounds a tad scary. Would be nice to not have trees falling on the house just as I prepare to leave the country for a much needed vacation.

Synoptically, this will be an impressive evolution as tropical and mid-latitude meteorology collide. The remnants of Ida are tracking steadily northeastward through the Tennessee Valley, and its cloud pattern remains well-defined on satellite. The most prominent feature of this setup is the strong (140 kt) upper jet streak which will build into northern New England on Wednesday. Ida`s remnants will track straight into its right entrance region, where large scale upper divergence is maximized. The system will begin to interact with the upper jet and the lingering frontal boundary currently over our area. After days of weakening over land as a tropical system, Ida`s remnants will reintensify as a highly dynamic, baroclinic low, but still with tropical moisture. Strong increases in low and mid level winds, frontogenetic forces, and low level convergence will allow a dramatic increase in the coverage and intensity of the rain shield as it moves in. Meanwhile, as the system takes on traditional frontal characteristics, an unstable warm sector will likely overspread southern portions of the area, contributing to severe weather potential. Overall, this continues to look like a high impact event. Details... First, a note on timing: The bulk of the impacts are expected to occur throughout the daytime Wednesday, Wednesday night, and early (mainly predawn) Thursday. This represents a slight earlier shift in timing. Severe weather concerns will peak from about mid afternoon to late evening Wednesday, around 2-10PM. Hydro concerns will focus more on the later afternoon through the overnight, with residual impacts into Thursday especially on slower responding rivers. Today`s guidance overall showed a small but definite trend northward with the highest QPF. However, that followed a small southward shift last night. So again, noise level changes. Our rainfall forecast was changed little, with a slight northward shift in the axis of heavier QPF and a slight trend upward overall in rainfall amounts as CAM guidance certainly supports the potential for a widespread swath of 4 to 6", with locally over 6" possible. This will be more than sufficient to bring both widespread flash/urban flooding and widespread main stem river flooding, discussed more in the hydrology section. One area where concern has increased today is severe weather potential. With the more amplified trend, wind fields are looking robust across the area from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. As mentioned, the warm sector of the system will overspread approximately the southern half of the area, and that is where severe weather concerns are maximized. Southeasterly surface flow will veer to to southwest with height, with good speed shear and directional shear in the lowest levels especially strong. There are some very concerning 31.12z CAM runs such as the 3km NAM, ARW, and HRRR. Soundings from those models over southern New Jersey and Delmarva show long, clockwise curved hodographs reflective of 0-1km SRH in the 200-300 range and 0-3km SRH in the 300-400 range, and 40 to 50 kt southwesterly bulk shear vectors. These values on their own are not enough to produce severe weather, but it is looking like they will be paired with 1000 to 1500J of SB CAPE across our southern zones, providing the necessary instability for convection to grow vertically enough to be dangerous. The very high shear and sufficient instability, combined with high moisture and associated low LCLs, would create a highly favorable environment for tornadoes. If these trends hold, several tornadoes, including a chance for a strong tornado, would be possible especially over southern New Jersey and Delmarva, with the risk decreasing to the north. Some convectively enhanced damaging straight line wind gusts are also possible.

Yikes

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, CAPE said:

We enhanced risk. Luckily, we always fail. Ofc this one time... watch it happen. :yikes:

High risk being concerned has me concerned. I sent an email to our office health/safety guy about it to share. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, mappy said:

High risk being concerned has me concerned. I sent an email to our office health/safety guy about it to share. 

Don't get me wrong...love to capture a shot of a tornado in the field over yonder, as it rips up the feed corn and passes harmlessly to the NE, west of my house.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everyone relax, I pumped 4 inches of water out of my pool, this insures a few tenths of in inch of rain.  Water will be re-added to pool costing me roughly $58 dollars on Friday…but on the plus side, I am refusing to put down my deck umbrella thus insuring  I decent tornado outbreak.  If you would like flooding rain and no tornados, please send me $58 and I will add the water back to the pool and take the umbrella down.  The choice is yours…unfortunately I have yet to find the correct superstition combo to yield snow in winter…working on it though.  To keep this legit for this thread…obs:  cloudy, temp 82.7, DP 74.1, wet bulb is 77.7.

  • Haha 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Everyone relax, I pumped 4 inches of water out of my pool, this insures a few tenths of in inch of rain.  Water will be re-added to pool costing me roughly $58 dollars on Friday…but on the plus side, I am refusing to put down my deck umbrella thus insuring  I decent tornado outbreak.  If you would like flooding rain and no tornados, please send me $58 and I will add the water back to the pool and take the umbrella down.  The choice is yours…unfortunately I have yet to find the correct superstition combo to yield snow in winter…working on it though.  To keep this legit for this thread…obs:  cloudy, temp 82.7, DP 74.1, wet bulb is 77.7.

Most of tomorrows cape will come from the 74 degree dews.  Haven't seen the sun today and not expecting to tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LWX AFD from this afternoon

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
All eyes will turn to the remnants of Ida tomorrow, as a
potentially significant weather event unfolds across our area.
While there still is a small amount of spread, 12z guidance has
started to come into better agreement with respect to the track
of Ida and the resultant rainfall distribution across the area.

The character of the event can be split up into two separate
regimes across our forecast area. The first regime will be to
the west of the Blue Ridge, where steady precipitation will
persist nearly continuously from tonight through tomorrow
afternoon. Dynamically speaking, this is where the remnants of
Ida will interact with the mid-latitude trough off to our north
and west, undergoing extratropical transition as it tracks
across our forecast area. As the remnant wind field and copious
amounts of moisture associated with Ida encounter the
baroclinic zone associated with the trough to our west, strong
warm advection/frontogenesis will ensue aloft, leading to a long
lived period of heavy rainfall within the right entrance region
of the upper level jet situated to our north. This prolonged
period of steady, heavy rain will primarily be located across
the WV Panhandle and western MD, where widespread rainfall
totals of 3-6" are expected, with localized totals exceeding 8"
also possible. Some of these totals may also extend across far
northern MD further to the east as the zone of interaction
between Ida and the upper jet spreads eastward across PA. This
will lead to a high end threat for flash flooding across these
areas tomorrow, and then a threat for river flooding in the days
following (see hydrology section for details).

Locations to the east of the Blue Ridge will be further
displaced from the upper trough and resultant jet dynamics. As a
result, many locations there may start off the day dry. Not
only will locations be dry, but a few breaks of filtered
sunshine may develop by later in the morning into the early
afternoon hours. This will lead destabilization, with MLCAPE
values increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Also of note
from a thermodynamic perspective is the steepening of low-level
lapse rates near the surface in many of the CAMs, which when combined
with 3CAPE values of 100-150 J/kg should promote low-level
stretching of vertical vorticity in any stronger storms.
Kinematically speaking, the wind field associated with the
remnants of Ida is very impressive, with 40-50 knots of flow
extending from 925 hPa all the way up through the mid-levels of
the atmosphere. Hodographs have impressive clockwise curvature
through up 6 km, making ample streamwise vorticity available to
any right moving storms. CAMs show multiple arcs of storms
developing to the east of the Blue Ridge tomorrow afternoon.
Given the environment in place, any storm that forms tomorrow,
whether discrete or embedded within a larger linear structure
should be capable of exhibiting supercellular characteristics.
Multiple tornadoes and instances of damaging straight line winds
appear possible across the area in association with these
storms. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded a
large portion of the area to the east of the Blue Ridge to an
Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms.

While rainfall won`t be steady to the east of the Blue Ridge,
individual thunderstorms will be capable of producing very high
instantaneous rainfall rates, given the potential for very
strong updrafts and the high precipitable water environment in
place. As a result, flash flooding is also possible in these
areas as well, but on a more localized basis compared to west of
the Blue Ridge.

Ida`s remnants will progress off to the east overnight Wednesday
night, bringing precipitation to an end areawide by daybreak
Thursday. High pressure will build in behind Ida during the day
Thursday, bringing a return to quieter weather conditions.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Everyone relax, I pumped 4 inches of water out of my pool, this insures a few tenths of in inch of rain.  Water will be re-added to pool costing me roughly $58 dollars on Friday…but on the plus side, I am refusing to put down my deck umbrella thus insuring  I decent tornado outbreak.  If you would like flooding rain and no tornados, please send me $58 and I will add the water back to the pool and take the umbrella down.  The choice is yours…unfortunately I have yet to find the correct superstition combo to yield snow in winter…working on it though.  To keep this legit for this thread…obs:  cloudy, temp 82.7, DP 74.1, wet bulb is 77.7.

I cut my grass.  Rain cancel. But my pension thanks you for the pool water.  Do that more often please.

 

82.9/29.78 baro to make this an obs.  Really hope the banana high in Quebec helps funnel cold air to us.

  • Like 3
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic
Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...