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Hurricane Ida's Remnants


SnowenOutThere
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A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
At 659 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Merrimac, or near
Blacksburg, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Damaging tornado.
SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.
Locations impacted include...
Blacksburg...
Christiansburg...
and Merrimac.
This includes The following Location Virginia Tech.
TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

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2 hours ago, GATECH said:

Everyone relax, I pumped 4 inches of water out of my pool, this insures a few tenths of in inch of rain.  Water will be re-added to pool costing me roughly $58 dollars on Friday…but on the plus side, I am refusing to put down my deck umbrella thus insuring  I decent tornado outbreak.  If you would like flooding rain and no tornados, please send me $58 and I will add the water back to the pool and take the umbrella down.  The choice is yours…unfortunately I have yet to find the correct superstition combo to yield snow in winter…working on it though.  To keep this legit for this thread…obs:  cloudy, temp 82.7, DP 74.1, wet bulb is 77.7.

As a pool owner, this made me laugh 

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24 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Seeing all the action down in southwestern VA, I’m a little surprised to see the center of Ida still down and back along the TN / GA border. That suggests to me that somewhere in these parts is going to get clobbered tomorrow.

Though I might just be weenie-ing.

I love Weenie-ing

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14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

HRRR definitely seems to indicate there could be a predawn threat as well 

          You may be on to something here.    I wasn't worrying too much about the late night threat due to what I thought would be a lack of instability, but even though it's somewhat of an outlier, the HRRR has a modest shear/instability combo here towards morning.

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2 minutes ago, high risk said:

          You may be on to something here.    I wasn't worrying too much about the late night threat due to what I thought would be a lack of instability, but even though it's somewhat of an outlier, the HRRR has a modest shear/instability combo here towards morning.

The last few runs have seemingly brought some sort of cellular/cluster activity over DC or nearby areas. Some of the runs have shown a decent UH track as well. It honestly wouldn't surprise me...tropical stuff can do weird off-hours stuff for us. Not sure it'd be enough for a tornado watch...but if we do get one - it could be one of those rare days where we have 2+ tornado watches in a single day. 

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2 minutes ago, high risk said:

          You may be on to something here.    I wasn't worrying too much about the late night threat due to what I thought would be a lack of instability, but even though it's somewhat of an outlier, the HRRR has a modest shear/instability combo here towards morning.

Maybe outside of your area of expertise, but is tonight’s action part of those numbers people were posting from the models today?  I say this because up in PA from Breezewood to Chambersburg has been getting slammed already with several hours of storms.  If it’s going to add another 5 inch plus tomorrow, ouch.

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2 minutes ago, MDphotog said:

Maybe outside of your area of expertise, but is tonight’s action part of those numbers people were posting from the models today?  I say this because up in PA from Breezewood to Chambersburg has been getting slammed already with several hours of storms.  If it’s going to add another 5 inch plus tomorrow, ouch.

I'm not high risk - but it depends on the model output you are referring to. Some maps are 6hr precip, some are 24hr etc. Some are also simply "total precip" 

If it was total precip - then certainly yes any rainfall already down would count. 

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3 minutes ago, MDphotog said:

Maybe outside of your area of expertise, but is tonight’s action part of those numbers people were posting from the models today?  I say this because up in PA from Breezewood to Chambersburg has been getting slammed already with several hours of storms.  If it’s going to add another 5 inch plus tomorrow, ouch.

Up there, it's likely a Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE) and there's even some weak rotation on those cells. They're going to jackpot on flooding and maybe even the tornado potential up there. I'm considering heading up there tomorrow. Going to be a memorable event in the mountains.

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5 minutes ago, MDphotog said:

Maybe outside of your area of expertise, but is tonight’s action part of those numbers people were posting from the models today?  I say this because up in PA from Breezewood to Chambersburg has been getting slammed already with several hours of storms.  If it’s going to add another 5 inch plus tomorrow, ouch.

               Yes, most guidance had a modest chunk of the huge predicted rainfalls for PA occurring tonight.

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4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Tempted to stay up in my area tonight. Things seem to want to spin.

Maybe not the worst idea.
 

Maybe I’m glad I didn’t start classes out there this year...

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57 minutes ago, GATECH said:

The struggle is real!  Only had to do it twice this year!  Good luck tomorrow!

Thanks, we will both be home and can drain it if we need too, no threat to flood our home so it should be fine. Good luck to you too! 

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44 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

HRRR definitely seems to indicate there could be a predawn threat as well 

Not sure about severe, but I was always expecting rain in the early morning. Ava mentioned it this morning. 

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