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Met Fall 2021 Banter.


HoarfrostHubb
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9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

They did because it sounds like "new" not nu. And xi is a common surname and they didn't want to pin that on anyone.

Yeah saw the news on that this morning. I figured that was the reason. There’s probably other contributing factors to excluding Xi as well. I’m sure a certain former President would have loved to call it the Xi virus. 

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3 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Anyone here do kickboxing or have done it in the past? My wife wants to take a class or two a week (she wants us both to do it) and it’s going to be $10 a class each. Want to make sure we aren’t wasting our money because it requires a 20 class commitment 

Not really but when I was younger, I used to do a lot of martial arts and you definitely want to be stretched out before class, if that's not already part of the class routine.  Minor groin, hamstring and upper back injuries are common from those routines if you are not limber.  Good aerobic workout though and fun!  I tried a few here and there when I was a massage therapist at a gym.

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He is a regular on CNBC 

https://northmantrader.com/2021/12/01/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-2/

market intervals have been dogcrap for weeks 

made new highs last week , and it was so ugly under the hood , that new highs were made on 80% declining / 20 % advancing (individual stocks ) . Meaning a few large caps were holding the market up . New highs were made on very ugly negative divergence ..long before omnicron . Ditto credit market tickets HYG/JNk they raised red flags last week

Then Powell shot market in face yesterday by saying they may taper sooner , especially if Covid gets worse (they almost seem lost) . The fed targeted high inflation last summer , begged for it , now its here , it’s not as “transitory “ as they thought and they are now acting like they pull back on monetary policy to fight the inflation they literally asked for Last summer ,all in The face of the largest global asset bubble in history .  
 

One thing Mohamed El-Arian and a few other don’t get is a healthy market can take a tightening cycle , it’s a logical decision . However let’s call a spade a spade , this market has been on central bank life support (Q.E since 2009 ) , never normalized policy and when they tried in 2018..they had to reverse course when rates headed up ..this is an aging monetary system ..on life support..and it is the most levered in last 70 years !! . The fed has no good moves . Maybe we get a Santa rally that fails at current overhead resistance (that we just fell from ) look to be heading for 4480 on SP500 first 

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@Ginx snewx i can tell from some of your posts that you love big waves,  if you've never done it before you should book a trip to Hawaii in the winter for a big swell, there's almost nothing like it. I live next to this beach,  expecting 25 ft bombs with light offshore winds https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Pyramid-Rock/forecasts/latest

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The market is not falling from “omnicron”. It’s internals and credit markets signaled downside over two weeks ago

when the market made a high in early November 80 % of stocks were declining and 20% were advancing . That’s what they call ugly “breadth” basically Internally small and mid caps were falling but the biggest tech stocks (hugely weighted in indexes ) we’re still rising , giving the facade of a strong market . Text book of internals before a fall And leaves it *fragile to any bad news 

 it’s falling More  because the fed slapped it upside the head On Tuesday by saying they may Pullback support faster than planned . (They will take that back as market unwinds ). Omnicron was a catalyst for a internally fragile market but as Gottlieb came out and said if you are vaccinated and have the booster you should be protected just fine . That calmed the smart money on that front . 
 

Bottom line is you can’t normalize monetary policy in a leveraged sick market , they haven’t in 15 years and any attempt leads to a rapid unwind and reversal of their course . Some Prominent experts don’t seem To understand their is no good choice and we had QE for 10 years without boosting prices of goods , it’s supply chain and partially stimulus money drops that pushed up inflation Lately  and mainly the former . Supply down , supply stuck in containers and demand consistent = prices going up .  Removing fed accommodation doesn’t relieve that it compounds the situation by tanking asset prices 

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9 hours ago, mattb65 said:

@Ginx snewx i can tell from some of your posts that you love big waves,  if you've never done it before you should book a trip to Hawaii in the winter for a big swell, there's almost nothing like it. I live next to this beach,  expecting 25 ft bombs with light offshore winds https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Pyramid-Rock/forecasts/latest

BIL lives in Haleiwa - Oahu north shore - 20 minutes from Waimea Bay of surfer fame.  Only 10' breakers when we were there in March 2016.

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6 hours ago, tamarack said:

BIL lives in Haleiwa - Oahu north shore - 20 minutes from Waimea Bay of surfer fame.  Only 10' breakers when we were there in March 2016.

It's a little bit of a crap shoot when a big storm is going to blow up and send a swell but usually late Dec, Jan and Feb are prime.  Last year late December had a 20 ft, 20 sec swell with waves completely closing out in Waimea Bay which doesn't happen often, and usually requires 40 ft+ faces. There were surfers paddling and towing in which I can't imagine. 

Haleiwa is a great town, really laid back.

 

BTW, the storm sending the waves this weekend also triggered the first winter storm watch of the season for the big island but not the first snow.  Current forecast is for up to 4 inches with SW winds of 50-80 G100 at the peaks of the big volcanos. 

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