IDA remnants-Moderate to isolated Major Impact (esp NJ-LI), general storm total 2-8" rainfall Wednesday-Thursday September 1-2 2021

[hudsonvalley21]

8 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

What’s the gray area mean? (Slightly sarcastic). The Passaic/Pompton/Rockaway, etc. are going to cause problems. 

I would not mind being in the jackpot area with an winter event. I would graciously pass with this event.

Upton upped the QPF a little with their latest map.

 

[SnoSki14]

Well I don't want flooding so if it wants to go north or south of here then that would be great. 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well I don't want flooding so if it wants to go north or south of here then that would be great. 

You'll like the RGEM then, has less than 2 inches for most of us.  South Jersey more

[MJO812]

Gfs

[ForestHillWx]

58 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

I would not mind being in the jackpot area with an winter event. I would graciously pass with this event.

Upton upped the QPF a little with their latest map.

 

I’m under the red blob to the southwest of Morristown; should be fun. 

[LibertyBell]

So the maximum wind reported with IDA was 172 mph?!  Wow, that was stronger than any gust reported with Laura last year.  What was the sustained wind to go along with that 172 mph gust?

 

[nycwinter]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So the maximum wind reported with IDA was 172 mph?!  Wow, that was stronger than any gust reported with Laura last year.  What was the sustained wind to go along with that 172 mph gust?

 

i think i ready the sustained wind in that gust was 149

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i think i ready the sustained wind in that gust was 149

Wow no structure would remain standing around here if that ever happened here.

 

[RippleEffect]

Question? Did ida ever hit cat 5?

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

what the heck happened in 1983?

JFK had 5 90+ days in September?  even came close to hitting 100....

 

Dude that fall was brutal. HS senior year at OHS started out horribly uncomfortable.

[HeadInTheClouds]

22 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

Question? Did ida ever hit cat 5?

No. Top winds were 150 officially so it never made it to Cat 5. 

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Dude that fall was brutal. HS senior year at OHS started out horribly uncomfortable.

extremely rainy and hot year followed by an extremely cold winter.

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, RippleEffect said:

Question? Did ida ever hit cat 5?

from the lowest  pressure at 929 i don;t think it reached cat 5

[uncle W]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

what the heck happened in 1983?

JFK had 5 90+ days in September?  even came close to hitting 100....

 

Aug 1983 59 degrees...Sept 83...99 degrees

Aug 2007 56 degrees...Sept 83...88...

Aug 1986 50 degrees...Sept 86...89...

Aug 1976 50 degrees...Sept 76...89...

so far this year NYC has yet to see its first 50's so the sky's the limit when it comes to Sept max's this year...

[wdrag]

Will adjust the title Tuesday morning, by 7AM,  to a MODERATE-isolated MAJOR event. (This isn't Irene Lee but it's going to be a problem storm as  the 18z/30 GEFS continues on course.  Have attached the latest NAEFS and GEFS inputs to river flooding and you can see a probable widespread minor to moderate event is ahead, provided the ensemble guidance is reasonable. Purple indicates potential for a MAJOR flood at that point for that river.  GEFS on top and NAEFS beneath. Added the ARI last, from the afternoon cycle which shows, based on the WPC rainfall itself that this will probably be less than a 5 year recurrence rate (maybe more so ~2 year).  That means nothing when incorporating antecedent ground saturation and stream flow, but rainfall wise... many homeowners with good drainage will say, no big deal. Hopefully they dont have to drive Thursday morning. 

[crossbowftw3]

1 hour ago, RippleEffect said:

Question? Did ida ever hit cat 5?

Postseason analysis would be the judge of that, but the 7 MPH difference is purely academic.

[SnowGoose69]

18Z Euro sort of dry slots the metro

[gravitylover]

54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

extremely rainy and hot year followed by an extremely cold winter.

That was my first winter with a drivers license. I used to borrow dads car after dropping him at the train station. At least once a week I'd leave from there to go skiing rather than to school. I'd drive up to Hunter and ski all day then get back in time to pick him up. I almost missed a few times  It was a good winter on LI but only in relation to the times, it was an average (which meant pretty good) winter in the Catskills. 

Sorry all for the thread drift...

[doncat]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

18Z Euro sort of dry slots the metro

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

18Z Euro sort of dry slots the metro

Nice. Keep the north trend going.

[nycsnow]

Models also showing some decent winds for us 30-50mph gust with the ground so saturated isn’t gonna take much for some tree damage 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Models also showing some decent winds for us 30-50mph gust with the ground so saturated isn’t gonna take much for some tree damage 

 

Only the Euro really shows it and I don't buy it because the gradient does not seem to be there.  I think we will be NNE 20G30 Thu aftn and that is probably it

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Only the Euro really shows it and I don't buy it because the gradient does not seem to be there.  I think we will be NNE 20G30 Thu aftn and that is probably it

Gfs and icon do have some 40mph gust but it’s weird the way the output is looks like they could be thunderstorms because it’s very spotty??

[LoboLeader1]

23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

18Z Euro sort of dry slots the metro

Good to hear, hope this trend continues.

[SnowGoose69]

15 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Gfs and icon do have some 40mph gust but it’s weird the way the output is looks like they could be thunderstorms because it’s very spotty??

The GFS depiction is realistic more so with the SFC winds and 850-925.  The Euro might be as a result of the system still having tropical characteristics in the upper levels may be trying to blow things up too much once it reaches the coast.  There is not a big high to the NW/N and the low is only 998 or so.  The gradient on the SFC panels just looks phony to me or non realistic, I don't think I have ever seen 925 winds of 50-60kts before in such an unimpressive setup like that so it probably has something to do with the Euro picking up tropical characteristics 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nice. Keep the north trend going.

Could always see it keep going north due to the stronger ridge. Hard to bet against it. I agree. I've seen way more than enough rain. 

[donsutherland1]

12z GEFS for the 48-hour period ending 9/3 12z:

[SnowGoose69]

00Z NAM similar to 18Z Op Euro with highest amounts north

[Allsnow]

Wagons north 

[Rjay]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Wagons north 

Canadian models are south. Ukie and gfs are in the middle.  The Euro and NAM are north.