Tropical Storm Henri

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[ROOSTA]

FLOODING RAIN. Can't stress enough this will be the most damaging aspect to this event.
I'm jealous, moved down here for just what y'all are going to experience. I've had my days and the "biggy" has yet to hit. Not if but when.
So I live vicariously once again... 

[WxWatcher007]

06z EPS

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

No one lives there so it’s all good.  
Seriously you are prob right about those areas.   I am still thinking it ticks east a bit

I think you are right, all of CT is under the gun for tropical rains . Would not be surprised to see 6 to 8 inches across the state with Mr Tolland epicenter again. Classic western wall of water 

[nutmegfriar]

But didn't a wise man once say that nothing happens in CT?

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I think you are right, all of CT is under the gun for tropical rains . Would not be surprised to see 6 to 8 inches across the state with Mr Tolland epicenter again. Classic western wall of water 

I think the center may go west of both of us 

[Bostonseminole]

1 min up 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-14-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[CoastalWx]

We'll see how this works over the next day in terms of intensification and wind field expansion. I'm not sure there has ever been a storm this small and moving this slow near our latitude.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We'll see how this works over the next day in terms of intensification and wind field expansion. I'm not sure there has ever been a storm this small and moving this slow near our latitude.

Would think the rain threat would be incredible with a slow track 

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We'll see how this works over the next day in terms of intensification and wind field expansion. I'm not sure there has ever been a storm this small and moving this slow near our latitude.

usually, given how slow and small it is.  Without ET help, this will quickly loose all its convection and will just be a low level swirl with low top convection to its east.  Will looks very impressive on visible and very anemic on IR.

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

1 min up 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-14-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

little blow up where the new center might be.. ?  I think this takes off later today  wait and see though

[Kevin Reilly]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Storm is getting really close to 74W

Pretty far west I’m sitting at 75 west here in Media Delaware County Pennsylvania 13 miles wsw of Philadelphia. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Would think the rain threat would be incredible with a slow track 

Think storms that do that in Houston. 30” +

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

usually, given how slow and small it is.  Without ET help, this will quickly loose all its convection and will just be a low level swirl with low top convection to its east.  Will looks very impressive on visible and very anemic on IR.

You see this all the time as Typhoons recurve past Japan. They normally do ramp down pretty quick, but can bring pretty strong winds while looking pathetic on IR

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I think you are right, all of CT is under the gun for tropical rains . Would not be surprised to see 6 to 8 inches across the state with Mr Tolland epicenter again. Classic western wall of water 

Thank god the epic flooding rains look to be west for now...you guys can have that jack.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We'll see how this works over the next day in terms of intensification and wind field expansion. I'm not sure there has ever been a storm this small and moving this slow near our latitude.

Its going to mitigate the wind aspect, and accentuate the hydro issues...I've been beating the water drum since Wednesday.

[SouthCoastMA]

Current trends are meh here, but I'm ok with it

[dan11295]

True, without a real ET transition, convection might wind down fairly quickly. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS into ern LI and into CT.  LBSW as Ray says.

I will take LBSW here....I honestly don't want 12" of rain.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Lots to digest...I should have First Call this PM, and Final tomorrow PM.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will take LBSW here....I honestly don't want 12" of rain.

Unless I'm getting notable winds..I'm outtie

[Lava Rock]

look forward to the screw job we'll get on the rn side of things.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will take LBSW here....I honestly don't want 12" of rain.

Someone is going to get that much too I think. Agreed that the 12"+ jackpot can stay out of here, lol.....

I still am not sold on the further west track (like W LI into W CT), but the trend is definitely west right now.

[LovewellHemp]

I have a hemp farm in Hope Valley, RI and I'm trying to gauge if it's worth $1000 in materials and the next 48 hours of my life staking up an acre of plants. Are we looking at guaranteed 50+ mph winds 10 miles inland? I appreciate any and all input 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, RobertSul said:

SNE’s 30-year hurricane drought finally coming to a close? 

I'm currently in the past, 9 hours ago, for having traveled in the slumber machine ...  but two schools of thought on that.

I was thinking about this yesterday.  Does this thing have to count in those statistical curves? 

No two origins and subsequent synoptic track drivers ( meaning synoptic circulation modes in the latter sense ...) are going to be exactly the same. However, typically these are at least cousins to the CV long track. With -NAO timed well,  then a trough of at least moderate amplitude approaches from 100 W, that's the precarious design that gets us our 1500 post teeming crack highs ... - LOL. 

But this?  This is unique.  We have that -NAO part ( which is interesting...), albeit modestly negative... it is very W/SW biased in the blocking. With a subtle but crucially timed amplitude rolling cyclonically overtop from Montreal to S of NS, while Henri is then directed N underneath.  The entire domain over eastern N/A and the western Atlantic Basic is in a kind of implied cyclonic rotation that is going to direct as such...  There is even a trough approaching from the W, but...  both these features are weaker compared to the 'classical' amplitudes found in the above reference.  But the one aspect completely blows the classical model out of the water - ...there's a semblance of a pun there... - is the origin.  An MCS remnant that drifts S through the lower Maritime. Traveling some 1500 naut mile as it mutates, it then curls back W literally turning into a tropical cyclone.  Blah blah gets caught under said block... That entire circulation manifold and timing over our hemisphere that did all this dance is really a challenge to anyone to find an analog ( not for argument sake, just because it's fascinating)  

The impetus in asking is because that uniqueness may stand apart from the 30-year. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That will be more western LI into western CT and Berks now.

I may escape this with relatively minimal impact...and now that I own a home, that is okay.

We take...

[ROOSTA]

Beware of the RFQ. Still to far out to delve into specifics, Que Wiz? 
Moisture goes left winds go right, General rule of thumb.
Anyone remember Carol? (not I, 1953 was before my days) vaguely remember Donna. The local river swelled topping the gas station on Union St, exit 17. Bob was like yesterday, went sightseeing ended up near the CG Academy. A 15 foot surge demarked on a dock-house.
Be careful what you wish for.    

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Someone is going to get that much too I think. Agreed that the 12"+ jackpot can stay out of here, lol.....

I still am not sold on the further west track (like W LI into W CT), but the trend is definitely west right now.

Yea, they almost always do Messeneger ticks east up to go time...

[Modfan2]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Think storms that do that in Houston. 30” +

Irma dropped 21” in parts of St Lucie and Indian River counties. Here is a pick I got while working in Sebastian. After the storm

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ROOSTA said:

Beware of the RFQ. Still to far out to delve into specifics, Que Wiz? 
Moisture goes left winds go right, General rule of thumb.
Anyone remember Carol? (not I, 1953 was before my days) vaguely remember Donna. The local river swelled topping the gas station on Union St, exit 17. Bob was like yesterday, went sightseeing ended up near the CG Academy. A 15 foot surge demarked on a dock-house.
Be careful what you wish for.    

What happened in Clinton, MA yesterday may just be a warm up....one aspect that will be pretty prevalent IMO is tornado risk, and its being glossed over.