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Tropical Storm Henri


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1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

Ugh... those of us contending the eastward trend on the models... it's not like we thought it was going to go east of Naragansett Bay... we just contend it wasn't going to make landfall in western CT or NYC... jesus... sometimes the made up narratives are fascinating... like the "conflict" is required part of the discussion lol... 

it’s really only one person.  

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1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

Ugh... those of us contending the eastward trend on the models... it's not like we thought it was going to go east of Naragansett Bay... we just contend it wasn't going to make landfall in western CT or NYC... jesus... sometimes the made up narratives are fascinating... like the "conflict" is required part of the discussion lol... 

Yeah the eastward shift is definitely real from yesterday. It’s not a huge shift but it probably makes a landfall in RI more likely than SW CT/W LI.

SE CT has always been in a pretty prime spot for landfall odds and I don’t think that has changed much. 

It’s extremely hard to actually know how a hurricane is going to behave on the scale a few 10s of miles...I’ve found that going by experience can be more useful than trying to dissect whether a piece of NWP guidance with its 8 trillion equations is going to be correct. In past experience, it’s very very common to see eastward leaks on guidance for New England TCs in the final 36 hours, which is why I was leery of the westward trends continuing a few runs ago. That doesn’t mean it will keep happening from here on out but hedging slightly east is not a bad way to go. 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not sure what happened with recon but right before their SW to NE pass they picked up altitude in a hurry and turned back. Would be a shame if they couldn't do the mission. 

They were probably reading American and so all the meh posts so figured not worth it 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the eastward shift is definitely real from yesterday. It’s not a huge shift but it probably makes a landfall in RI more likely than SW CT/W LI.

SE CT has always been in a pretty prime spot for landfall odds and I don’t think that has changed much. 

It’s extremely hard to actually know how a hurricane is going to behave on the scale a few 10s of miles...I’ve found that going by experience can be more useful than trying to dissect whether a piece of NWP guidance with its 8 trillion equations is going to be correct. In past experience, it’s very very common to see eastward leaks on guidance for New England TCs in the final 36 hours, which is why I was leery of the westward trends continuing a few runs ago. That doesn’t mean it will keep happening from here on out but hedging slightly east is not a bad way to go. 

What are your thoughts on the EPS overall?

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the eastward shift is definitely real from yesterday. It’s not a huge shift but it probably makes a landfall in RI more likely than SW CT/W LI.

SE CT has always been in a pretty prime spot for landfall odds and I don’t think that has changed much. 

It’s extremely hard to actually know how a hurricane is going to behave on the scale a few 10s of miles...I’ve found that going by experience can be more useful than trying to dissect whether a piece of NWP guidance with its 8 trillion equations is going to be correct. In past experience, it’s very very common to see eastward leaks on guidance for New England TCs in the final 36 hours, which is why I was leery of the westward trends continuing a few runs ago. That doesn’t mean it will keep happening from here on out but hedging slightly east is not a bad way to go. 

Great post.   Also true of miller B’s in winter-always seem to verify a bit east 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Did the plane go down from the rapid intensification? You have to wonder what happened 

Quincy gave the Air Force base a call and complained about the waste of taxpayer money on Henri recon flights

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So I cut the cable cord two years ago and haven't watched TWC since, just figured out I could watch their free trial for ten minutes then clear the cache for another ten if I wanted. Boy nice rollers breaking way out on Montauk. Thinking surge will not underperform, have to watch Hotel Buoy Texas Tower tonight

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the eastward shift is definitely real from yesterday. It’s not a huge shift but it probably makes a landfall in RI more likely than SW CT/W LI.

SE CT has always been in a pretty prime spot for landfall odds and I don’t think that has changed much. 

It’s extremely hard to actually know how a hurricane is going to behave on the scale a few 10s of miles...I’ve found that going by experience can be more useful than trying to dissect whether a piece of NWP guidance with its 8 trillion equations is going to be correct. In past experience, it’s very very common to see eastward leaks on guidance for New England TCs in the final 36 hours, which is why I was leery of the westward trends continuing a few runs ago. That doesn’t mean it will keep happening from here on out but hedging slightly east is not a bad way to go. 

Messenger says the eastward leak will continue.

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Quincy gave the Air Force base a call and complained about the waste of taxpayer money on Henri recon flights

He should read and watch this when he says no power outages NW of 95. And he lived  the first 20  years of his life in Woodstock , CT. He’s been chasing tornadoes too long and forgets his roots. Hate to see it 

 

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12 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I took a walk and came across a huge chunk of dead tree down in the road. Is it a bad sign that the trees are dropping before the storm even starts?

He surrendered before he became victim

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8 hours ago, Quincy said:

There will be some inland outages too, but I can’t imagine anything widespread or long term away from the areas near the landfall/immediate right front quadrant. 

 

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He should read and watch this when he says no power outages NW of 95. And he lived  the first 20  years of his life in Woodstock , CT. He’s been chasing tornadoes too long and forgets his roots. Hate to see it 

If I didn’t have roots in SNE, I probably wouldn’t be spending so much time in this thread 

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  • dendrite changed the title to Tropical Storm Henri
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