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19 minutes ago, Cfa said:

This is has to be the thickest wildfire smoke I’ve ever seen around here, normally it’s higher up in the atmosphere.

Yeah, I can’t remember visibility down to only 2 miles at any of our airports in smoke before.

LGA

20 Jul 2:51 pm 87 65 48 NW 8    2.00 Haze SCT050,SCT060,BKN250

C3593671-9629-4CAF-99B9-4255737197B8.jpeg.1b743ac4d703ffdbc9ad57ba48da9b4a.jpeg

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I can only remember one other smoke situation of this magnitude and that is the Colorado fires from probably 10 or so years back.  You could smell it here as well as see it.  

i was in san fran 4 years ago during one of the california fires and the whole city smelled like a campfire and was thick with smoke.  

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Tomorrow will be another very warm day with temperatures rising into upper 80s and lower 90s. The day could end with thunderstorms and heavy downpours as a cold front moves across the region. Afterward, a period of mainly dry conditions and somewhat cooler than normal temperatures will continue into the weekend. Afterward, there are growing model indications that a period of above to much above normal temperatures could develop.

In the long-range, August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for was 76.0° for August. 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. Early prospects for a very warm second half of July have diminished on account of the MJO's having moved back into Phase 2 from Phase 3.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +8.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.881 today.

On July 18 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.707 (RMM). The July 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.320 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0° (0.5° below normal).

 

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wait how would the atlantic ridge make it to the west coast- and what does that imply for our temps?  a hot dry  NW to W flow?

 

No the Western/Plains ridge will expand east and the immense heat will spread into the region.  Strong heat (95+) with 850 MB temps ?18c will need to be tracked next week / end of July.  In the extreme it could progress into an Aug 2001 opening,

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

 

Yeah the AQI got went from the "unhealthy for sensitive groups" category to just plain old "unhealthy." Dont see that around here much.  Went to work in person near WTC and it was an impressive view from above, saw Hudson Yards become completely obscured as the day progressed and the haze/smoke get lower and lower, closer to ground level by mid afternoon.

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The magnitude of the warm up next week will probably come down to the strength of the Greenland block. The runs with stronger blocking have more of a 50/50 low near New England. The 0z runs kept the strongest heat to our south. But a weaker block in future runs would allow more warming into our area.

New run strongest heat stays south

2FC934C4-31B5-422B-BC60-5DBA1260974D.thumb.png.b22d4f671b6dc2b13cc3fe3017e4740f.png

Old run had less blocking and more heat into our area


2B741D06-39DD-43EA-A30D-3924190B90BD.thumb.png.5f37d105a5ffb3bbeb51d25a7fcd2104.png

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(71/89), or +2.

Month to date is  76.9[-0.9].       Should be  77.6[+0.1] by the 29th.

GFS has lower T's and the others got warmer.       Dallas will soon start an endless run of 100's after cool start to July.

75*(70%RH) here at 6am, dirty blue.         80* by 10am.      83* by Noon.

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Morning thoughts…

Smoke from the western wildfires will again dim the sunshine. It will be hazy and very warm with highs in middle and upper 80s in most of the region.  Parts of the area could see a thunderstorm during the afternoon or evening as a cold front pushes across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 84°

Newark: 88°

Philadelphia: 87°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 86.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.1°; 15-Year: 88.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.0°; 15-Year: 89.1°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and somewhat cooler.

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15 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Another sticky AM, RH 87% /DP 65. Currently 68 here.

That has been the story of this month so far. Clouds and rain have kept the maxes down and the mins up. HPN is similar to other stations in that regard.

July

HPN…max…-1.9…..min….+1.6

LGA…max…..-1.1…..min….-0.4

EWR…max...+1.0….min…..+1.9

ISP…..max…-0.9…..min…..+1.3

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