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June 2021


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15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Heat will probably rebuild after 6/21

Pattern changes are often rushed by the models.

 

It'll be largely dependent on what materializes with the forecasted ULL into the east and how quickly that can clear out through the northeast.  The Rockies ridge looks to go bonkers next week and sometimes  can get established and anchored out west nd our heat is by way of the WAR linking west like what is currently occuring.  It does look to warm up pieces of that heat eject eas in that timeframe.

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, is this what happened in 1936 and 1995 too?  So basically the maximum heat was off to our west, but both years, in July we had a short time when we were under the tongue of max heat and exceeded 100 degrees.

This sounds like the summer equivalent of a strengthening low pressure getting too close to us and changing snow over to rain because of an onshore push- are they equivalent?

 

 

So far this season, the ridge axis has been pushed up to the north of our latitude. This was the same story from 2018 to 2020 with the most impressive record highs to our north. This lead to more onshore flow and record high dew points. Plenty of mid to upper 90s heat with the 100°+ maxes at places like LGA and points north. Almost like a version of the SE US Coastal summer moist trade winds pattern. Those places have very high 90° day counts but not many 100° days. Our last widespread 100°s at all stations from EWR to ISP was back the 2010 to 2013 era. The ridge axis was right over the Great Lakes with a strong westerly flow pattern. Same for the July 1995 heatwave. The ridge axis in recent years has stretched further north allowing the warmest 850 mb temperatures to go to our north. That difference has allowed more of a southerly component to the flow than westerly. So we’ll have to see how the ridge axis rebuilds once we get to late June and July. 
 

June 2021 so far

076225D4-96CE-4707-9FDE-F16310B15536.gif.37f86b146f4cd7bc51e8672e2e37952e.gif

Peak July heat pattern since 2018 

C51D3FAB-2C47-4A06-8271-DAE7BD408CC0.png.cd1b079a89dbda4b87ea90506a1f91c2.png

2010-2013 pattern with mid July 1995

21640A00-3D47-4FC1-B655-07ED8A1A6C9D.png.938d6ce5fc1e0644ee2687a879069165.png

1F35173C-4A4E-4BE5-BE9E-0574499CAB3A.gif.ba15fa410fd7b4547391e9f6e7719ac4.gif

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This station is a few minutes from me and yesterday my weather station hit 75.5 for a DP.  Right now my weather station is actually at 76.4 for Dew.  

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Following similar path as yesterday.        I am lagging behind  at 77* for Noon, and down to 76* at 1pm.        Cumulus clouds again gathering, but not threatening yet.        Most likely time for the City is probably 4pm-9pm.

1623172320-ZxdcvX9QLiY.png

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Just now, CIK62 said:

Following similar path as yesterday.        I am lagging behind  at 77* for Noon, and down to 76* at 1pm.        Cumulus clouds again gathering, but not threatening yet.        Most likely time for the City is probably 4pm-9pm.

maybe something will pop along the storm outflows

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

So far this season, the ridge axis has been pushed up to the north of our latitude. This was the same story from 2018 to 2020 with the most impressive record highs to our north. This lead to more onshore flow and record high dew points. Plenty of mid to upper 90s heat with the 100°+ maxes at places like LGA and points north. Almost like a version of the SE US Coastal summer moist trade winds pattern. Those places have very high 90° day counts but not many 100° days. Our last widespread 100°s at all stations from EWR to ISP was back the 2010 to 2013 era. The ridge axis was right over the Great Lakes with a strong westerly flow pattern. Same for the July 1995 heatwave. The ridge axis in recent years has stretched further north allowing the warmest 850 mb temperatures to go to our north. That difference has allowed more of a southerly component to the flow than westerly. So we’ll have to see how the ridge axis rebuilds once we get to late June and July. 
 

June 2021 so far

076225D4-96CE-4707-9FDE-F16310B15536.gif.37f86b146f4cd7bc51e8672e2e37952e.gif

Peak July heat pattern since 2018 

C51D3FAB-2C47-4A06-8271-DAE7BD408CC0.png.cd1b079a89dbda4b87ea90506a1f91c2.png

2010-2013 pattern with mid July 1995

21640A00-3D47-4FC1-B655-07ED8A1A6C9D.png.938d6ce5fc1e0644ee2687a879069165.png

1F35173C-4A4E-4BE5-BE9E-0574499CAB3A.gif.ba15fa410fd7b4547391e9f6e7719ac4.gif

 

Might have some implications for chances of tropical-cyclone impacts too, right Chris?

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Low here was 68, my current dew shows 78, but it is over my recently water grass, so probably a bit moist. ISP show 72 dew though

Our dews are similar. 85/77 (HI 95) here. Grass is dry.

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