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weatherwiz

May 2021 Discussion

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Even after next week the warmth is west leaving a dip over the northeast. We should get these troughs out of here, but that look is prone to doors.

crazy.  Seems like this happens every year now. 

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This might be related to why there is that 'dip'/+PNAP look across the continent .. Personally, I have to go back several years really in mind's eye to remember anything close to that magnitude, not just in wave strength, but it's longevity as kind of sub-metric is really quite ominous.  A phase migration that is extraordinarily powerful on the left side of the RMM.  Hard to know for certain if/how much that is related to the non-sustaining warm look and these blue thickness dyes cast on charts ... seemingly out to the end of time unrelenting, but it fits.  It definitely should correlate more so in DJFM ...April and May?  yeeeah, should less but there are super factors that are related to CC ( I suspect...) skewing matters and I think it's sort of "non-linear constructive interference" which I'm sure no one has a clue what that means so I should shut up

Either way, for warm enthusiasts, that's an ugly magnitude/space in this graph below.   It's even hinting at rotating right back out into another pass out there, too so it's like the hemisphere is trying to arrange a shit summer ...lol.   oh man - Arizona is starting to look ever more attractive

 

image.png.1b49787695e4b802e424d300ac85d5d7.png

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On 5/1/2021 at 7:24 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah this sounds decent despite Kooky Kenny posts 70+ where most folks LIVE thru Thursday 

Confidence higher in the temperatures across southern New England on
Monday with the EPS and other guidance sources interquartile range
around 5-7 degrees. Should see temperatures topping out in the low
60s across NE MA, Cape Cod and the Islands to the mid 70s in the CT
River Valley. Lots more spread on Tuesday/Wednesday with the
interquartile range getting to 10-20 degrees between the 25th and
75h percentile. Do have a bit more confidence on Tuesday across CT
of temps in the low to mid 70s. Leaned on the NBM guidance due to
the uncertainty at this point in time. Readings on Wednesday also
fairly spread given uncertainty with the frontal passage. Readings
range from the low 60s to low 70s. This is all despite the mild 925
hPa air in the 9 to 15+ degree Celsius range as low level easterly
flow will keep those temperatures down.

Did add a mention of thunderstorms later on Tuesday into early
Wednesday as there is a surge of warmer air advecting in and the
front appears to jog a bit further northward. Models showing a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE across western MA into CT, which is possible
given models showing some sky clearing in the low to mid levels

How are we coming with those 70s for today?

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7 minutes ago, kdxken said:

How are we coming with those 70s for today?

It’s been tough for the good reverend.

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Something interesting needs to happen like another severe outbreak somewhere  or an early season tropical cyclone. This pattern is boring me to death. I’ve been reading the book “Five Hundred Years of North American Hurricanes” just to pass the time and get ready for tropical season 

 

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10 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

What's the chance of me getting 9 in at 4-4:30? I'm thinking not good but I'm always optimistic.

See the source image

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10 minutes ago, Hoth said:

So lush and green out there. We really do droughts differently here in SNE.

Drought every day it seems.

animate.gif.b2c82e0828e8768edb79ccc5b1f6dff1.gif

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s been tough for the good reverend.

That’s what happens when you push a false narrative....it comes down like a house of cards. But still, you hate to see it.  

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s what happens when you push a false narrative....it comes down like a house of cards. But still, you hate to see it.  

yeah feel bad for him, hope he recovers

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51 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Pope won.

"After an overnight soaking of 1.19", we have now picked up 7.21" of water in Fitchburg, MA just since April 1! I'm guessing "goodbye drought" come tomorrow's newest installment from the US Drought Monitor."

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Overall, looks seasonably cool and pretty dry for a while after this more wet pattern. A few stellar bluebird but doored days on the D8-10 Euro op

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2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Something interesting needs to happen like another severe outbreak somewhere  or an early season tropical cyclone. This pattern is boring me to death. I’ve been reading the book “Five Hundred Years of North American Hurricanes” just to pass the time and get ready for tropical season 

 

 

I hope George forecasts during hurricane season   that'll be awesome if there's a beast down by the Bahamas 

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nice 10% increase in snow for PWM and CON.  Congrats.

Looking forward to the other  NE NWS doing this. Its a bear to get data on their ncei site

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