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May 2021 Discussion

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Wow no May discussion thread yet? 

Well what better way to kick it off by welcoming everyone to severe season!

Actually may have a severe threat on Tuesday...particularly western sections.

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Something tells me ... some of the exuberance in starting this thread isn't for the ethic of May coverage, as much as it is really motivated out of the hopes and dreams and visions of crispy tropopause rollin,' positive dis-stroke, wall cloud danglin,' baseball hailers ...training relentlessly 72 dbz rain cores over Tolland CT's crippling drought targeting package -

 

Am I right   lol...   it's okay - me too

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Looks to me like we have we're destined to a rain anomaly ...spanning the next 30 or so hours.  NAM and meso modeling matching rad presentation and ground truth reasonably well...

Then, deferring to the globals for the mid ..ext range, it almost appears like we may redux this 2 to 3 day period in general, again day 4 -7.   Very similar in the Euro/GFS ... indicating a similarly large synoptic evolution. A wavy frontal structure sets up along the OV to New England... sending rains/convection waves while we play head-games over whether we we warm sector or not ... Unfortunately, given to the tanning of New England butts climatology .. we know how the warm-sector uncertainty will end. 

In fact, new rule:  whenever there is warm sector uncertainty...that automatically equals piece of shit weather.   All media Mets putting up their D3-10 outlook has to just say P.O.S., on any day for now on, that looks like a warm sector may be in contention. 

Anyway, I think the Euro and GFS end up at cold biases on D9 as a perfunctory end result, in on the 00z, but in their day to day uselessness this is also true. They just get to that destination via different bias circuitry.

The Euro just automagically adds systemic mechanical power to troughs from no source as a blanket application to it's D5 temporal seam.... tending to do so again at any point there after through the end of it's processing. 

The GFS on the other hand has bad American dope smoking, test cheating college transcripts as modelers that seem to use physical equations that end up with too much cold/polar side of the westerlies height falls that so f'n irritatingly obvious yet they never fix this shit... Starting at hour 6 and incrementally cooling, it lands on D13 of every model run squarely in the middle of February, regardless of whenever month of the year said model run actually was processed.  

So, in a neutral PNA at the end of April, there is no hope of any of these guidance actually knowing and understanding the celestial mechanics of the Earth going around the sun at a tilt axis leaning the northern hemisphere toward it ...

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Well looks like there will be plenty of chances for some showers and heavier downpours the first week of May. Both Euro/GFS even hinting at a coastal low developing...maybe even some flakes up north. Still kinda intrigued for some severe potential but looks like best threat probably across PA into maybe parts of NJ or just south.

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Tuesday could be a chase day across Pennsylvania but I am busy. Pretty nice EML with warm front nearby and good shear with approaching s/w. Heights look kinda neutral but could see a few warm front riders. 

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From what I looked at the 00z Euro tries to allow at least one day where the warm frontal arc gets to upstate NY ... dove tailing the eastern end to perhaps PSM at D4. That would imply a warm day in there at least to the Pike.

Contrasting, the 00z GFS operational pins the warm front through mid PA and south of us... even closing off a wave to make sure it stays cold...  amazing with the creative propensity of this model to engineer stopping warm air N of NYC at all times and circumstance always... Hate this f model!  The difference really appears to be 72 hours. I did a isoheight comparison for both compression and position and the GFS is stronger with the exiting trough through the Maritimes by crucial amounts,... and that lays in a cooler air mass and starts the resistance rhea into motion.

I suspect either run could be wrong for their own reasons. But the GFS version is likely too cold in the cold side of the westerlies ...which puts down a denser BL that inhibits the warm front.

Euro's likely more right < 4.5 days out, in general.  

 

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

From what I look at the 00z Euro tries to allow at least one day where the warm frontal arc gets to upstate NY ... dove tailing the eastern end to perhaps PSM at D4. That would imply a warm day in there at least to the Pike.

Contrasting, the 00z GFS operational pins the warm front through mid PA and south of us... even closing off a wave to make sure it stays cold...  amazing with the creative propensity of this model to engineer stopping warm air N of NYC at all times and circumstance always... Hate this f model!  The difference really appears to be 72 hours. I did a isoheight comparison for both compression and position and the GFS is stronger with the exiting trough through the Maritimes by crucial amounts,... and that lays in a cooler air mass and starts the resistance rhea into motion.

I suspect either run could be wrong for their own reasons. But the GFS version is likely too cold in the cold side of the westerlies ...which puts down a denser BL that inhibits the warm front.

Euro's likely more right < 4.5 days out, in general.  

 

I think the biggest killer for us is it appears the front at the beginning of the week gets hung up nearby and multiple waves of low pressure develop along it...going to be tough to push the warm front north with that. This is why I'm heavily interested in SE PA...EML plume with PVA, warm sector, and triple point location...all the makings for some nasty supercells.

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Then right after.. D7+ a bomb Nor'easter crawling up/off the coast ... throwing back swept lashing CCB head of wind, heavy rain and cat-paws.  Ew ...

Granted, it may be over done ...but every one of the GEF members has a trough with a negative tilt at some point or the other, carving up the up coast between 150 and 200 hours. 

We'll see what happens, but out here in the purely objective deterministic approach to weather forecasting, we call that a loud signal for an event   ;)

The EPS has a trough amplitude as does the GEPs so there is even at least some modest cross guidance weighting there. 

I think personally we need to get on the other side of that and we'll assess where we are at that time in terms of season.. But, we may have some decent days prior next week.  The GFS still pins the warm front S and that's a general face smack tho . 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Next week looks ok. Couple of periods of showers mixed between periods of sun. Typical early May. Second half of month is looking like early summer with ridging over EC

It’s “pretty fukking far from ok...”

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What were you expecting ?

I love rainy weather 

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18 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Next week looks ok. Couple of periods of showers mixed between periods of sun. Typical early May. Second half of month is looking like early summer with ridging over EC

 Warmer conditions arrive Sunday ahead of an
approaching cold front, that may yield scattered afternoon and
evening showers. The cold front stalls over our region, leading
to unsettled weather with daily chances for showers through mid
week. We briefly dry out on Thursday before a possible coastal
storm arrives late week.

Another early summer week.

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30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

No lion this morning. 40° and just breezy.

36.4 and some wind on my run earlier. Not the most pleasant of Mayorch mornings. But suns out and we tan this afternoon in the 60’s

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May? We’re stuck in early April. 

May 1st comes in like April 1st. 
 

At least the sun will let us put March behind us now...

 

That said, I’ll happily take dewless 60’s most days of the year...Great day for a hike, outside of the far interior.

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We locked into the best winter storm pattern of our cold season starting in mid April. Again.

 

Tough for snow lovers and warm weather lovers. Mother Nature around here figured out how to disappoint the vast majority.

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Alex reporting 1 inch of snow, happy May 1st. I'm staging a protest and not getting out of bed

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

36.4 and some wind on my run earlier. Not the most pleasant of Mayorch mornings. But suns out and we tan this afternoon in the 60’s

You’ll be 50s

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks toasty tomorrow. I’ll take a shit week if I can get 65-70 on Sunday. 

NaM looks like it clouds up there tomorrow 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Scooter just correcting everyone everywhere. Always a sign hes weather unhappy with the pattern 

I don’t get it. This aftn and tomorrow look decent here. The nam had some clouds and showers there. Hopefully he can tan the nape. Who’s unhappy? You should smile. Only 2 more wins to get to .500

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