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Torch Tiger

April 2021 Discussion

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43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You're not too far W. of me along Rt poopy ...

We dawned classic overnight BD'ed with slate gray 48 misery mist here... but, we've cleared...and in Ayer we are definitely on the cold side of the BD air mass boundary - but we are still making a run at 60 because that hot high one in the sky is doing what it can to offset.   But it won't last .. . hi res vis loop shows this is a fortuitous wedge of clearing between the post boundary band, and a new strata ceiling making en roads from the E ..https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Should be back to slate sky here in a hour or so if that doesn't start eroding back ...

Yes, Brightening cloud deck with an occasional pop of a sun beam has me up to 61F but the clock is ticking.  Anyway, I’ll enjoy it while I can and it’s been nice to salvage what looked like a rainy Sunday a few days ago.

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33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is close to a tulip trouncer for people like Dave and up into VT and NH. 

Pope says no go.  It’s a northern mid Atlantic and Upstate New York deal according to him. 

  • Haha 1

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Pope says no go.  It’s a northern mid Atlantic and Upstate New York deal according to him. 

I hope it is:damage:

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Had a few breaks of sun with spike into the low 50s early this morning, but its all a dream now. Steadily dropping, down to 45. 

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4 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

12z gfs gets pretty interesting on Friday across the high terrain of SNE

Crappy pattern coming up for many areas

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30 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Flight delayed from Logan to MIA due to Florida convection.  No flights into FL right now.  Sucks.

Nope, front dropping south and causing severe storms; lots of lightning 

5AF291C4-E204-48FA-A0F2-B28D9177E5F5.png

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The signals for some interior/higher elevation snows around next weekend have been popping up now and then for a few weeks now. Would be nice to get some region wide soaking rains but looks like alot of it could be really more hit and miss type stuff. 

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24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The signals for some interior/higher elevation snows around next weekend have been popping up now and then for a few weeks now. Would be nice to get some region wide soaking rains but looks like alot of it could be really more hit and miss type stuff. 

Yeah... I was hammering the telecon layout for awhile myself.   It was a monster winter signal ...

      for February

For mid April? It may be mainly an inclement one, wet and cold and miserable .. usual suspects.  I spent some time looking over all the spring snow producing events that were important - that I could think off.  1977, 1982, 1984, 1997 ... 2005 .. .etc.  They all were "lucky" in a sense in that they got a bit of a cold goosing/inject at a critical time in the developmental phase of cyclogenesis.

The other aspect is that there seems to be general modeling technology problem across the bevy of them all, actually... I thought it was something to do with the hemispheric pattern but I'm starting to see the same shit here in a much more nebular flow look/ pattern orientations we didn't have over the winter so I'm not sure it isn't just the models doing this.  Doesn't matter which, ...but they are consummately over assessing the amplitude of cyclones in the mid range, and then we watch them ( almost all of them!) peeter out to some lesser form, ...sometimes disappearing altogether. 

The combination of that and normal seasonal damping ... lends to your thinking of chilly showers -

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... I was hammering the telecon layout for awhile myself.   It was a monster winter signal ...

      for February

For mid April? It may be mainly an inclement one, wet and cold and miserable .. usual suspects.  I spent some time looking over all the snow producing events that were important - that I could think off.  1977, 1982, 1984, 1997 ... 2005 .. .etc.  They all were "lucky" in a sense in that there got a bit of a cold goosing/inject at a critical time in the phase of cyclogenesis.

The other aspect is that there seems to be general modeling technology problem across the bevy of them all, actually... I thought it was something to do with the hemispheric pattern but I'm starting to see the same shit here in a much more nebular flow look/ pattern orientations we didn't have over the winter so I'm not sure it isn't just the models doing this.  Doesn't matter which, ...but they are consummately over assessing the amplitude of cyclones in the mid range, and then we watch them ( almost all of them!) peeper out to some lesser form, ...sometimes disappearing altogether. 

The combination of that and normal seasonal damping ... lends to your thinking of chilly showers -

This has been a pretty big issue as of late...even dating back the past few years. 

But that end of week signal is kinda interesting...pretty impressive dynamic cooling signal advertised by the GFS. I'm not saying we're looking at a good threat for some snow (outside of maybe the higher elevations) but could probably see some sleet/grauple showers should that type of solution with the H5 sliding south of us. In fact, the Euro is advertising this too. But who knows...I really don't have much confidence going past 3-4 days out in this type of pattern

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If I used fertilizer I definitely would have put it down today but I don't.  Lol on the Euro we snow Thursday night

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27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

If I used fertilizer I definitely would have put it down today but I don't.  Lol on the Euro we snow Thursday night

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png

  • Weenie 3

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

If I used fertilizer I definitely would have put it down today but I don't.  Lol on the Euro we snow Thursday night

Yup. I Aerated and limed. Raining now. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. I Aerated and limed. Raining now. 

The rain is not getting much further north than Connecticut though.

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4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The rain is not getting much further north than Connecticut though.

Even down there where it’s raining , they’re only getting like .05. That doesn’t even wet the dust down. If you want to drop lawn treatments, you need solid .75+

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

If I used fertilizer I definitely would have put it down today but I don't.  Lol on the Euro we snow Thursday night

Fert and lime and crabgrass preventer are down we watch it settle in slowly the next 24-36 hours . 

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