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Torch Tiger

April 2021 Discussion

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It looks like we'll start the first week to 10 days on the cool, dry side.  Maybe a central CONUS torch translating east by mid-month?  

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Euro backed off on the intensity of the cold a bit for late week. I wasn't really buying the -20C 850s into S NH at that range. Still a good cold shot though.

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro backed off on the intensity of the cold a bit for late week. I wasn't really buying the -20C 850s into S NH at that range. Still a good cold shot though.

Shocking . 50,’s and 60’s if suns out. If it’s cloudy.. it’s cooler. We’ve seen far far worse 

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27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:Shocking . 50,’s and 60’s if suns out. If it’s cloudy.. it’s cooler. We’ve seen far far worse 

Won’t be that warm. Probably 40s at best Friday even in the lower els. You may not get out of the 30s. 

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It's all predicate on the assumption that the -NAO will pan out.. .

Complicating/adding to that, some of the individual GEF members east-base the NAO block - we all know that matters. Plus, the wave lengths are trying to shorter pretty much right on top of the late mid and extended range - like it's the time chosen this particular go of it to do that particular large scale flow modulation.   That also complicates -

We'll see how it all aligns.  The GEFs from last night say we April blue bomb ( above seasonal probability to do so...), but the EPS and operational Euro ... and the operational GFS are trying to be flatter over the western domain of the NAO region - the shallowing/normalizing of the lower Maritime vortex as noted by Brian is an example of that hem-hawing... 

Lord knows I don't want it  - just being objective.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Won’t be that warm. Probably 40s at best Friday even in the lower els. You may not get out of the 30s. 

I’m talking about the general pattern. There’s posts about a cold cloudy rainy 5-10 days straight. Not happening . -NAO in Napril does not matter 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m talking about the general pattern. There’s posts about a cold cloudy rainy 5-10 days straight. Not happening . -NAO in Napril does not matter 

The block is real on all ensembles. It’s far enough out though that we hope and pray it weakens a bit and we can get more westerly flow in here at times rather than prolonged retrograding depression.

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The block is real on all ensembles. It’s far enough out though that we hope and pray it weakens a bit and we can get more westerly flow in here at times rather than prolonged retrograding depression.

I'm hoping the roughly 2/3rds of the GEFs members that are nudging the block ballast more E in stature are onto something and the whole aspect ends up an east based NAO.

I think an east based NAO and a PNA that stops rising at neutral might be workable and not as bad as some of those/these early cold washes wanna sell - but we'll see.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Euro backed off on the intensity of the cold a bit for late week. I wasn't really buying the -20C 850s into S NH at that range. Still a good cold shot though.

If it’s not going to snow it may as well torch now. 30s are pointless with the ski hills all melted out. 

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6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Chilly start.

Hopefully just this week and we moderate as things warm in the southern Midwest.  

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3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Hopefully just this week and we moderate as things warm in the southern Midwest.  

Following week looks like Moosup doggy doo with the block right now. This week may end up better.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Following week looks like Moosup doggy doo with the block right now. This week may end up better.

Yep. As James brown said:

 

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22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Following week looks like Moosup doggy doo with the block right now. This week may end up better.

Nah, jugs and mugs coeds and napes.

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There’s zero reason to cancel Napril and think cold , cloudy and wet. Wolf always tells us things change and what looks like one thing ends up another. 2 weeks away. Lots can and will change. Bark at the Moon 

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It will depend on wind direction. As some of those thicknesses relax a bit, that could be a DSD on NW winds. However, it’s not the greatest look even after it gets milder.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s zero reason to cancel Napril and think cold , cloudy and wet. Wolf always tells us things change and what looks like one thing ends up another. 2 weeks away. Lots can and will change. Bark at the Moon 

It ain’t that pretty to start. 

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Everyone should know that April is generally a dumpster fire in New England. I always look at Mother’s Day for sustained decent spring weather. 
If I could, mid March to mid May is when I’d head south out of here and come back around the 20th. That 60 days is generally terrible for snow weenies in SNE and just as bad for the warministas. I have zero use for 40-50 with a cold rain. 

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13 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

Everyone should know that April is generally a dumpster fire in New England. I always look at Mother’s Day for sustained decent spring weather. 
If I could, mid March to mid May is when I’d head south out of here and come back around the 20th. That 60 days is generally terrible for snow weenies in SNE and just as bad for the warministas. I have zero use for 40-50 with a cold rain. 

Amen about heading south. April and even May are the best times to go to places like FL. 

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No AC at the house up here, so the humidity and upper 80s/90s stuff we got a lot of last summer really sucks.

We plan to come back to Randolph this summer whenever the weather looks nice (the low to mid 70s and low humidity I was promised in the tourism brochure).

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19 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

No AC at the house up here, so the humidity and upper 80s/90s stuff we got a lot of last summer really sucks.

We plan to come back to Randolph this summer whenever the weather looks nice (the low to mid 70s and low humidity I was promised in the tourism brochure).

I’m sure facing south with the big windows isn’t ideal for keeping that place cool in the summer sun.  First year you get one of the hottest summers and a lackluster winter... there’s always next year.

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