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April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You're not too far W. of me along Rt poopy ...

We dawned classic overnight BD'ed with slate gray 48 misery mist here... but, we've cleared...and in Ayer we are definitely on the cold side of the BD air mass boundary - but we are still making a run at 60 because that hot high one in the sky is doing what it can to offset.   But it won't last .. . hi res vis loop shows this is a fortuitous wedge of clearing between the post boundary band, and a new strata ceiling making en roads from the E ..https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Should be back to slate sky here in a hour or so if that doesn't start eroding back ...

Yes, Brightening cloud deck with an occasional pop of a sun beam has me up to 61F but the clock is ticking.  Anyway, I’ll enjoy it while I can and it’s been nice to salvage what looked like a rainy Sunday a few days ago.

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24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The signals for some interior/higher elevation snows around next weekend have been popping up now and then for a few weeks now. Would be nice to get some region wide soaking rains but looks like alot of it could be really more hit and miss type stuff. 

Yeah... I was hammering the telecon layout for awhile myself.   It was a monster winter signal ...

      for February

For mid April? It may be mainly an inclement one, wet and cold and miserable .. usual suspects.  I spent some time looking over all the spring snow producing events that were important - that I could think off.  1977, 1982, 1984, 1997 ... 2005 .. .etc.  They all were "lucky" in a sense in that they got a bit of a cold goosing/inject at a critical time in the developmental phase of cyclogenesis.

The other aspect is that there seems to be general modeling technology problem across the bevy of them all, actually... I thought it was something to do with the hemispheric pattern but I'm starting to see the same shit here in a much more nebular flow look/ pattern orientations we didn't have over the winter so I'm not sure it isn't just the models doing this.  Doesn't matter which, ...but they are consummately over assessing the amplitude of cyclones in the mid range, and then we watch them ( almost all of them!) peeter out to some lesser form, ...sometimes disappearing altogether. 

The combination of that and normal seasonal damping ... lends to your thinking of chilly showers -

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... I was hammering the telecon layout for awhile myself.   It was a monster winter signal ...

      for February

For mid April? It may be mainly an inclement one, wet and cold and miserable .. usual suspects.  I spent some time looking over all the snow producing events that were important - that I could think off.  1977, 1982, 1984, 1997 ... 2005 .. .etc.  They all were "lucky" in a sense in that there got a bit of a cold goosing/inject at a critical time in the phase of cyclogenesis.

The other aspect is that there seems to be general modeling technology problem across the bevy of them all, actually... I thought it was something to do with the hemispheric pattern but I'm starting to see the same shit here in a much more nebular flow look/ pattern orientations we didn't have over the winter so I'm not sure it isn't just the models doing this.  Doesn't matter which, ...but they are consummately over assessing the amplitude of cyclones in the mid range, and then we watch them ( almost all of them!) peeper out to some lesser form, ...sometimes disappearing altogether. 

The combination of that and normal seasonal damping ... lends to your thinking of chilly showers -

This has been a pretty big issue as of late...even dating back the past few years. 

But that end of week signal is kinda interesting...pretty impressive dynamic cooling signal advertised by the GFS. I'm not saying we're looking at a good threat for some snow (outside of maybe the higher elevations) but could probably see some sleet/grauple showers should that type of solution with the H5 sliding south of us. In fact, the Euro is advertising this too. But who knows...I really don't have much confidence going past 3-4 days out in this type of pattern

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