CoastalWx Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Did you? I assumed it never made it into E MA. How much? Will be interesting to see if the end of week rain also dwindles as we approach. It went from 2-4” yesterday’s to near. 1” this morning .03 or something like that. Just a narrow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 Now if Stein can actually use his powers and clear us out from the NE. Some sun poking through like a lonely hair follicle on Kevin's scalp. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 OVC and 46° here but I can se some of those breaks to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 RIP Stein. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 Nada on the breaks here, and none expected. I was envious of the sunny afternoon Pit2 had yesterday and today's mostly sunny forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 Regardless of any other impacts ... whatever happens between 96 and 132 hours is likely to over-perform QPF-wise. More advance concepts: East wind anomalies extend very deep in the atmosphere, and though this system does not fan/evacuated due to accelerating entrance jets ...it has a vertically stacked easterly jet that extends from 850 mb to and over the 300 mb of tropospheric depth - that enitre slab of saturable atmosphere rips westward for 30 straight hours, into and **while** the core heights drop an additional 6 to 10 dm... due to dynamic feed-backs. That means there is a steady ratio of instability and that much mass transport into that bucket space will end up in the buckets on the ground to put it nicely. Terrain enhancing as a factor maximizes ... Local studies perform very proficiently in that synoptic evolution. Eastern Berks rise, the Worcester Hills/Monadnocks into the lower Whtie's due very well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Regardless of any other impacts ... whatever happens between 96 and 132 hours is likely to over-perform QPF-wise. More advance concepts: East wind anomalies extend very deep in the atmosphere, and though this system does not fan/evacuated due to accelerating entrance jets ...it has a vertically stacked easterly jet that extendes from 850 mb to the over 300 mb in tropospheric depth - that enitre slab of saturable atmosphere rips westward for 30 straight hours, **whilre** the core heights drop by an additional 6 to 10 dm... That means there is a steady ratio of instability due to dynamic feed-backs ...and that will like local studies the hell out of the eastern Berks and the Worcester Hill/Monadnocks into the lower lifting terrain of Whtie's Ballsy call at this juncture. Good luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Regardless of any other impacts ... whatever happens between 96 and 132 hours is likely to over-perform QPF-wise. More advance concepts: East wind anomalies extend very deep in the atmosphere, and though this system does not fan/evacuated due to accelerating entrance jets ...it has a vertically stacked easterly jet that extendes from 850 mb to the over 300 mb in tropospheric depth - that enitre slab of saturable atmosphere rips westward for 30 straight hours, **whilre** the core heights drop by an additional 6 to 10 dm... That means there is a steady ratio of instability due to dynamic feed-backs ...and that will like local studies the hell out of the eastern Berks and the Worcester Hill/Monadnocks into the lower lifting terrain of Whtie's Can also see how this could go farther west leaving SNE is pseudo dry slot with heaviest qpf Catskills into C PA. We’d get rain, but not a ton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can also see how this could go farther west leaving SNE is pseudo dry slot with heaviest qpf Catskills into C PA. We’d get rain, but not a ton Presently ...the most dependable operational guidance types/ .. blends therein agree that the structural evolution will move perfectly under our latitude ( 1997 style). That absolutely pegs climatology ( to very high percentile) for lashing SNE. That would have to change in order for the bold to succeed. Which ... it can, but all these guidance/ .. blend therein would have to up and be flat wrong ( as of 00z) on a D4.5. Getting strained to believe that would be the case .. There has also been cross-guidance and multi-ensemble member continuity more like the 00z/ .. blend evolution for a deep number of cycles ... extending back day's worth actually ... just sayn' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 32 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Ballsy call at this juncture. Good luck. If you read the paragraph that follows ... it is not such a brave outlook - Whether it happens ... it's relative to guidance/implictions therein - guidance could be en masse be wrong. sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 Some nice breaks were developing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Regardless of any other impacts ... whatever happens between 96 and 132 hours is likely to over-perform QPF-wise. More advance concepts: East wind anomalies extend very deep in the atmosphere, and though this system does not fan/evacuated due to accelerating entrance jets ...it has a vertically stacked easterly jet that extends from 850 mb to and over the 300 mb of tropospheric depth - that enitre slab of saturable atmosphere rips westward for 30 straight hours, into and **while** the core heights drop an additional 6 to 10 dm... due to dynamic feed-backs. That means there is a steady ratio of instability and that much mass transport into that bucket space will end up in the buckets on the ground to put it nicely. Terrain enhancing as a factor maximizes ... Local studies perform very proficiently in that synoptic evolution. Eastern Berks rise, the Worcester Hills/Monadnocks into the lower Whtie's due very well. I agree. At least as modeled now, that could be a siggy QPF look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, that's not over 6" on a mulch bed in Taunton. Beware the Ides of mulch. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 The EPS look certainly raises a few eyebrows at 1K over the ORH hills IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I agree. At least as modeled now, that could be a siggy QPF look. I'd def be keeping an eye on it over the interior. That is a pretty classic look for some late season fun. Odds are still that it ends up a miserable rain event with some marginal wet snow in the elevated interior, but you cannot rule out a much more significant impact. EPS looks pretty ominous actually....that's a pretty classic firehose sig. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 Big rains for the drought obsessionists and snow for the elevated interor...win/win. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some nice breaks were developing here. Suns out and in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd def be keeping an eye on it over the interior. That is a pretty classic look for some late season fun. Odds are still that it ends up a miserable rain event with some marginal wet snow in the elevated interior, but you cannot rule out a much more significant impact. EPS looks pretty ominous actually....that's a pretty classic firehose sig. Yep, agree. Got To watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd def be keeping an eye on it over the interior. That is a pretty classic look for some late season fun. Odds are still that it ends up a miserable rain event with some marginal wet snow in the elevated interior, but you cannot rule out a much more significant impact. EPS looks pretty ominous actually....that's a pretty classic firehose sig. ... ... LOL ... well, we're transforming this into a 'snow or not' thing- that's fine too.. I'm more into the QPF in general. Could be quite prolific as you ...Scott et al But I guess as far as snow goes: I'm thinking two things concurrently on that and not sure which way to go. The first being, my experience in spring marginality is that the models will tend to error crucial .5C too warm because they don't really resolve the sub-synoptic dynamic dimensions that take place inside the cyclonic machinery... not from the mid range. In fact, sometimes it event takes now-casting to flip cat-paw deals into parachutes. This is sort of October 2009 slush NFL game at Gillette as an example. There are also feed-backs because of terrain, featuresthat are not resolved nearly that well even in the super star Euro cluster... The spine of Worcester Hills can exacerbate lift and that dynamically cools the column below the seed level and that helps draw the aggregates to the tree canopies up there... and then that starts modulating via conduction and weird micro phenomenon - ... it's not doing all this stuff over a flat curved planetary surface. ... I mean, summing all that together is usually going to offset the curtain heights of a CCB more so than present day modeling technology, which by virtue of limitation to do so ...smooths those thing into blindness - cooler tendencies happen. That said, the other aspect that I can't ignore is that our "flop direction" appears to have been ruined by CC frankly. We used to depend upon the above spectrum of complexity to ensure a blue-green ptype chart in April ended up cake at 32 -34 F ... but it seems in the last 10 years ... more and more those are just ending up blats on windshields. Nature does not like exact numbers - it happens...but storms typically pass through cat-paw 33 on route to some other state rather than stay at that razor's edge - that's why for the euphemism 'flop direction' It "could" actually be just better modeling physics altogether ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Regardless of any other impacts ... whatever happens between 96 and 132 hours is likely to over-perform QPF-wise. More advance concepts: East wind anomalies extend very deep in the atmosphere, and though this system does not fan/evacuated due to accelerating entrance jets ...it has a vertically stacked easterly jet that extends from 850 mb to and over the 300 mb of tropospheric depth - that enitre slab of saturable atmosphere rips westward for 30 straight hours, into and **while** the core heights drop an additional 6 to 10 dm... due to dynamic feed-backs. That means there is a steady ratio of instability and that much mass transport into that bucket space will end up in the buckets on the ground to put it nicely. Terrain enhancing as a factor maximizes ... Local studies perform very proficiently in that synoptic evolution. Eastern Berks rise, the Worcester Hills/Monadnocks into the lower Whtie's due very well. Yes sir on the East wind. 6Z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Big rains for the drought obsessionists and snow for the elevated interor...win/win. Or maybe another suppression session? Almost had enough dz here to make the roads wet - Stein mortally wounded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yes sir on the East wind. 6Z EPS Yeah... if there were ever a scenario that screams 'don't be a QPF queen' ... that's g-damn mo'f'n one of them right there. It's like the euphemism I like, 'correction vector' - I don't believe the 'uncertainty aspects' favor a lesser result. Parametrics as modeled ( 00z suite) are in fact suggesting the opposite to put it nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, tamarack said: Or maybe another suppression session? Almost had enough dz here to make the roads wet - Stein mortally wounded. Cool and wet period coming. Hang onto your drought worries at your own peril. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cool and wet period coming. Hang onto your drought worries at your own peril. Hope that's right and it will slow down spring phenology and avoid toasted plants 3-4 weeks from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 56 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yes sir on the East wind. 6Z EPS Does Maue have SD with that? NAEFS is a little over 2SD, but it’s far enough out that the anomaly will get washed out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 Midday GFS makes much more sense with the snow distribution to elevation ratio, maybe a first look at how this might actually unfold?: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 Been watching this period Hunter mountain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Been watching this period Hunter mountain Kidnap a DILF and head west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 Thursday/Friday going to soak all of us. I’m thinking I’ll be measuring rain in inches in my backyard. Berks/southern greens west snow chances. Still thinking northwest Jersey, northeast PA up to Albany is the most interesting for snow Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 Most model guidance is cooling the column pretty quickly over the interior, but whether or not it becomes a prolifc snow maker will be so dependent on exactly how that ULL tracks underneath SNE. The orientation matters....if the ULL is more elongated E-W, that is probably good for snow getting into more regions. But having it more circular or elongated N-S then it would be less favorable for snow in SNE...you'd prob see more snow out in NY State and maybe VT on that type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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