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March Long Range Discussion


stormtracker
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40 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

good thing is it's far enough out there the h5 setup will surely change ....probably at 0z :D

Nah keep it south a few more runs.   I like the phasing though,  gives the storm an opportunity to come west.   It will be limited by the location of the ridge in the plains though. 

I use 1/25/00 as my benchmark for how far east the NS troff axis can be and still give us  room  for a decent snowstorm.      It was over Indiana.

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31 minutes ago, Amped said:

Nah keep it south a few more runs.   I like the phasing though,  gives the storm an opportunity to come west.   It will be limited by the location of the ridge in the plains though. 

I use 1/25/00 as my benchmark for how far east the NS troff axis can be and still give us  room  for a decent snowstorm.      It was over Indiana.

Given the amplified LW pattern as depicted and the advertised ridging in the NAO domain, some degree of phasing is almost a certainty. The outcome would seem largely dependent on the timing and extent of such. Without any phase and with the ridge to the west practically on top of us, there is probably no chance.

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30 minutes ago, Amped said:

Nah keep it south a few more runs.   I like the phasing though,  gives the storm an opportunity to come west.   It will be limited by the location of the ridge in the plains though. 

I use 1/25/00 as my benchmark for how far east the NS troff axis can be and still give us  room  for a decent snowstorm.      It was over Indiana.

It is certainly close enough for a system over a week out. Anytime you have a phasing storm like this models will struggle. We could get this under 3 days and have it pop back on the models 

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54 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z Para suppressed and weaker this run...not really stressed about it.  Still interesting to track this week.  We had a decent wintery February and my family is healthy, no complaints.

Never a good sign when the rationalizations start flowing

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Oh, and as long as the streams stay somewhat split with cyclones breaking near north america, it can redevelop more nao blips. Since this is a function of cyclone development, models can easily lose signal in extended range. Something to keep an eye on. AAM /Pacific is hostile.
 
 
chEIuBw6_normal.jpg
 
 
Lol at the -NAO and 50-50 low in a week.
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The -NAO is a thing for the upcoming week. Looks to break down pretty quickly after next weekend. Both the AO and NAO go positive after that on all the global means.

For this week, as has been the case many times this winter when there has been a favorable look up top, it is looking like the flow will be too suppressive, with a separation of the northern and southern streams.

 

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Quick glance at the latest guidance and I'm getting the December vibes: split flow, "Niño look" with a tendency for cyclones to break in NW Atlantic (which drops the NAO). This process is only reinforced if follow-up cyclones do so. If a model doesn't do that, system breaks down.
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For once, the GEFSv12 and EPS members are (likely) not overestimating the DC-area's snow chances over the next 10-15 days.  Keep in mind that the EPS values are shown every 12-hours for 24-hour periods so divide by 2.  The values for the GFS are total for the entire period. 11821448_14-kmEPSGlobalKCGS24-hourSnowfall.thumb.png.a891bd341fdd860408c8422d08f23ea4.png

 

1533536801_GEFSEnsembleKCGS10-daySnowfallMatrix.thumb.png.81dbbbd6469cbed3609dd0f381e4ac93.png

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18 hours ago, CAPE said:

Given the amplified LW pattern as depicted and the advertised ridging in the NAO domain, some degree of phasing is almost a certainty. The outcome would seem largely dependent on the timing and extent of such. Without any phase and with the ridge to the west practically on top of us, there is probably no chance.

And that’s the miserable part for me. We’ve barely had 4” of precip this year and .83 happened on Jan 1. If I’m not mistaken we’ve only had one event in Winchester that was totally unfrozen. It was a minor event sometime around the 10th or so of January. Every other event has been either a snow, sleet, or freezing rain, and rain combo or all frozen. It’s been pretty much average here with temps, somewhere around +1 probably. Absolutely maddening for me when it’s dry in the winter.

If we don’t score something in the next 14 days I think we may be done. Such an extended period of -AO and NAO is gonna break at some point. I’m actually fine with it if we can completely take it off the table. If we aren’t gonna score let’s go 60-70 and remove all possibility.

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23 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

For once, the GEFSv12 and EPS members are (likely) not overestimating the DC-area's snow chances over the next 10-15 days.  Keep in mind that the EPS values are shown every 12-hours for 24-hour periods so divide by 2.  The values for the GFS are total for the entire period. 11821448_14-kmEPSGlobalKCGS24-hourSnowfall.thumb.png.a891bd341fdd860408c8422d08f23ea4.png

 

1533536801_GEFSEnsembleKCGS10-daySnowfallMatrix.thumb.png.81dbbbd6469cbed3609dd0f381e4ac93.png

So you’re saying there’s a chance?

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43 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And that’s the miserable part for me. We’ve barely had 4” of precip this year and .83 happened on Jan 1. If I’m not mistaken we’ve only had one event in Winchester that was totally unfrozen. It was a minor event sometime around the 10th or so of January. Every other event has been either a snow, sleet, or freezing rain, and rain combo or all frozen. It’s been pretty much average here with temps, somewhere around +1 probably. Absolutely maddening for me when it’s dry in the winter.

If we don’t score something in the next 14 days I think we may be done. Such an extended period of -AO and NAO is gonna break at some point. I’m actually fine with it if we can completely take it off the table. If we aren’t gonna score let’s go 60-70 and remove all possibility.

Well, we are getting a nice qpf event today, finally.

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Does kinda suck winter seems to have ended early and started late for most of us.  It was really about 3 weeks long.  It was one of the best digital winters however so there is that. 

What's stunning to me is that we've been tracking nearly non-stop this winter.  Before this current period, a harbinger of spring?, the only comparable period with nothing to track was the last 10 or so days of December and that period ended earlier than expected. 

The EPS did an amazing job of sniffing out medium-range threats (European Center for MEDIUM Range Weather Forecasting).  Unfortunately, their decision to add 06 and 18 UT runs to provide boundary conditions for (European) mesoscale models proved to be justified and necessary; the Euro did poorly within 3-days on the one metric that matters to many in this forum.  

The NAM was annoyingly right for the wrong reasons beyond 48 hours but an important tool within 48-hours.  During the 2020-21 winter, those warm layers are insidious/surreptitious/stealthy (insert your favorite adjective) and if one model shows a warm layer in Fredericksburg prepare for sleet in Frederick. 

Snow forecasts from the GFSv16 were useless.  Hopefully, this can be fixed with a few tweaks to the diagnostics.  Last I checked snow amount wasn't a prognostic variable! 

Hopefully, this current period is short and we'll be tracking a last hurrah (for our northern and western members?) soon. 

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