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madwx

Spring 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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5 minutes ago, hlcater said:

crush em with the low 50s dews on that run

At this time of year, I almost always look at dewpoints first to see whether it is worth spending much time looking at a setup.  And, well, they're not that great in this sub as you pointed out.  The other thing is mid-level lapse rates since great mid-level lapse rates can compensate for lower dews, but the lapse rates don't look that great at this point.  Would like to see a setup like this a little later in the season, but oh well.  I'll probably watch it anyway since nothing else is going on.  Even a lower end threat would be better than nothing to hopefully serve as an appetizer for better days to come. 

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Just now, Hoosier said:

At this time of year, I almost always look at dewpoints first to see whether it is worth spending much time looking at a setup.  And, well, they're not that great in this sub as you pointed out.  The other thing is mid-level lapse rates since great mid-level lapse rates can compensate for lower dews, but the lapse rates don't look that great at this point.  Would like to see a setup like this a little later in the season, but oh well.  I'll probably watch it anyway since nothing else is going on.  Even a lower end threat would be better than nothing to hopefully serve as an appetizer for better days to come. 

Exactly. Upper 50s dews could work with a better developed low and a bit better of a lapse rate plume (as illustrated on the 00z run), but the low 50s present on the 12z arent gonna cut it, especially as the lapse rates arent as good either. Biggest issue is low lat trough that scours the gulf in 3-4 days, and this time of year, you need a lot of recovery time to really get that better moisture north of dixie. I'm interested in what follows this system, which should have better moisture to work with than this one will.

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20 minutes ago, hoosierwx said:

Today is the ninth anniversary of the big outbreak that included the Henryville tornado. The funnel cloud that eventually became that tornado passed about 5 miles to my south.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, that spring was so doggone hot temp wise.  This outbreak and the abnormal warmth are what I remember.

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34 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Exactly. Upper 50s dews could work with a better developed low and a bit better of a lapse rate plume (as illustrated on the 00z run), but the low 50s present on the 12z arent gonna cut it, especially as the lapse rates arent as good either. Biggest issue is low lat trough that scours the gulf in 3-4 days, and this time of year, you need a lot of recovery time to really get that better moisture north of dixie. I'm interested in what follows this system, which should have better moisture to work with than this one will.

The systems beyond might have both severe south and snow for the north.  Details are sketchy, but the split flow won't return immediately so there's potential I guess.

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Both the GEFS and Euro weeklies show above to much above normal temps lasting through the end of next week.  A period of average to possibly slightly below average temps will be around the 15-22, especially in the western subforum, before above average temps move back in the last week of the month.

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27 minutes ago, madwx said:

Both the GEFS and Euro weeklies show above to much above normal temps lasting through the end of next week.  A period of average to possibly slightly below average temps will be around the 15-22, especially in the western subforum, before above average temps move back in the last week of the month.

:wub:Morch

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We deserve a nice early spring. The majority of them since 2012 have been hot garbage. Cold and snow lingered into a lot of them until late April/early May. 

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7 hours ago, Chambana said:

We deserve a nice early spring. The majority of them since 2012 have been hot garbage. Cold and snow lingered into a lot of them until late April/early May. 

I think all of them since 2012, actually. Almost as if nature was trying to bring back equilibrium after the summerlike March of 2012. I personally hope we don't have anything like 2012 - it was terrible for the fruit trees after they bloomed, only for a frost to hit.

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On 3/2/2021 at 2:14 AM, hlcater said:

The thing with this season is that the overall pattern, long range climatological guidance, and analog set(I'm using 2011, 2018, 2009, 2008, 1976 and 1974) are all suggestive that this is a severe season that peaks in March and April before simmering down into May and June with expanding drought in the plains and potentially western sub by July and August (especially if we start heading towards a 2nd year nina). Obviously not a surefire thing, but taking what is shown at face value, I'm not about to count on May and June to roar in well above average. Who knows, I might be eating boots by then.

Interesting. Of those years, 2011 and 2018 saw hot summers, while 1976,  2009, and 2008 were cool, in Ontario. 

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There are signs on the ensembles (and MJO?) for another dump of cold air into central and eastern North America towards the last week of the month. 

Of course, the fact that it's several weeks out and that Bust-hard-i is honking that horn gives me reason to doubt it. Guess we'll see.

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The potential big action mid next week has really sh*t the bed, as cyclone would say.  Instead of a big slug of energy that slowly ejects into the plains and wraps up, it appears dominant northern stream energy will sweep through and shear everything out.  Forget severe weather.  Models now barely even drop any rain here.

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41 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Models are hinting at a potential big storm in the long range. The pieces are there... I'm ready for spring :angry:

See post above yours, wash, rinse, repeat until it's July and 95 degrees.

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10 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The potential big action mid next week has really sh*t the bed, as cyclone would say.  Instead of a big slug of energy that slowly ejects into the plains and wraps up, it appears dominant northern stream energy will sweep through and shear everything out.  Forget severe weather.  Models now barely even drop any rain here.

Hopefully this won't be the theme for peak tornado season. Miss the days of a nice bowling ball ejecting out instead of a strung out sheared mess. 

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00z Euro suggested a potential warm front/triple point setup in central Illinois and Indiana on Thursday afternoon. Probably a lot of clouds and likelihood of ongoing convection adds uncertainty, but on the positive side, dew points get to near/around 60 with very impressive wind fields aloft.

 

Another fly in the ointment is potential for surging cold front to undercut surface based convection. This would point toward possible window for any supercells being fairly brief. Anyway, something to watch. If nothing else, there could be bowing segments with the front.

 

The Euro would have been more interesting on Wednesday PM too but as things stand now, the moisture quality just isn't there to overcome the very warm EML base at h7, with any convection able to go being elevated. Unfortunately the Gulf moisture gets blocked until Wednesday by surface ridging across the Gulf states.

 

 

 

 

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It's becoming pretty interesting Sunday/Monday as the central plains bowling ball system ejects east and occludes.  The GFS and GFSv16 are very aggressive with snow across Iowa.  This morning's Euro wasn't bad, either.  As the system moves east, while the deep moisture plume is still intact, the rain/snow line crashes south.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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I wouldn't mind getting some precip for soil moisture and even a couple inches of snow to hit average. Its march it would be gone in a couple days anyways

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44 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

I figured we'd get some more snow at some point, but was leaning more towards April lol.

On that subject... April has outsnowed March in Chicago 3 years in a row.  That is the first time that a streak like that has happened.  

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

On that subject... April has outsnowed March in Chicago 3 years in a row.  That is the first time that a streak like that has happened.  

That’s the most depressing stat I’ve ever heard. Don’t ever remind us of this again :lol:

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That’s the most depressing stat I’ve ever heard.

yeah that stat / trend sucks. as a weenie you like the season to go on as long as possible but into March. April snow is useless, it’s the equivalent distance from the solstice as August, no staying power, just a total tease and annoyance. Although - caveat - the past two mid April’s quick overnight dumps have made for some spectacular morning after caked landscapes, till mid day when it’s all gone.

 

Maybe since it’s seems March is back in the game things will equalize and April will behave a little more traditionally this year.

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whatever cooldown we have from the 15-25 looks to be fairly mild with around normal temps expected.  Long range progs show a warmup occurring after that with teleconnections remaining favorable and the MJO moving out of cool regions for the midwest.

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