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Spring 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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3 hours ago, frostfern said:

Long range is really really boring though.  Might as well live in Scotland.  Just hope this blocking nonsense doesn't last into May.  I'm afraid climate change is making boring blocking patterns more common just because the arctic is warming faster than the midlatitudes.

I agree. It is undeniable. Springs are not what they used to be here in the OV. 

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26 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I agree. It is undeniable. Springs are not what they used to be here in the OV. 

I just didn't think it would be so abrupt, and so dramatic. I mean, every damn year?

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On 4/9/2021 at 11:44 PM, michsnowfreak said:

 What the trees budding rapidly and some flowers being out I would say we're 2 weeks ahead of normal but about 4 weeks ahead of the last several years

That's the exact same thinking I had this weekend.

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

Made me look :yikes:

 

57 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Unless you enjoy low 50’s and boring... 

it felt inevitable and it was

 

we deserve better, remember thunder?

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Hopefully we can at least have a good amount of sun on the cooler days.  Makes a big difference now that it's mid April.  

Hopefully May will be rockin'

It's possible to hit 60 with 0C 850 temps this time of year.  Probably not in this moist pattern though.  The flip side is it won't be freezing hard at night, so flowers will do well.  Would be nice to avoid a hard freeze now that things are ahead of schedule.  Still a long ways to go until we're out of the woods though.

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2 hours ago, frostfern said:

It's possible to hit 60 with 0C 850 temps this time of year.  Probably not in this moist pattern though.  The flip side is it won't be freezing hard at night, so flowers will do well.  Would be nice to avoid a hard freeze now that things are ahead of schedule.  Still a long ways to go until we're out of the woods though.

Ya, for most of Southern Ontario we use our May long weekend as the official end of frost season. Planting before happens, but almost every May 1-15th features some area of Southern Ontario getting around 28-32F. 

Im okay with 55F and sunny conditions and 35F at night. Not a big fan of 40s and rain but that happens every year in April so I expect those to be mixed in. Heck, 40s and rain even happens in May sometimes. 

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As it looks now, the first potential for change would be during the last weekend/last week of April (24-30th).

Wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up being the first week of May instead though, given how shifts often are delayed.


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13 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

As it looks now, the first potential for change would be during the last weekend/last week of April (24-30th).

Wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up being the first week of May instead though, given how shifts often are delayed.


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Boring blocking pattern ends with a super amplified +PNA ridge into the Yukon and downstream GL trough.  <_<  Please tell me it's just the OP GFS.

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24 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Boring blocking pattern ends with a super amplified +PNA ridge into the Yukon and downstream GL trough.  <_<  Please tell me it's just the OP GFS.

Just was looking at that too. Would be a warm May if that transpires. 

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7 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Just was looking at that too. Would be a warm May if that transpires. 

The ridge will eventually translate east.  The problem is that's the most boring transition possible if you are interested in active weather.  Warm air advection from the northwest is a drought pattern.  :axe:

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Massive 960 mb Aleutian bomb gradually spinning itself out south of Alaska is the problem with the GFS OP.  Maybe not all the ensemble members / other models are as bad.  Please tell.  

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31 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

A sign of continued cool weather :axe:

20210412_132205.jpg

Recurving typhoons don't always mean a trough in the east.  That's a preferred outcome but there are other factors in play as well

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45 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I wonder what effect this will have on our weather this year

That's not actually La Soufriere. That is Sarychev Peak in Russia, erupting in 2009 as seen from the ISS.

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1 hour ago, Geoboy645 said:

That's not actually La Soufriere. That is Sarychev Peak in Russia, erupting in 2009 as seen from the ISS.

The point remains. What effect will this eruption have on our weather?

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2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This spring has taken a turn for the worst folksimage.thumb.png.8d167bfb5eb32b91bf03768b73a06b79.png

A 1 degree C anomaly on a 372 hour forecast is "a turn for the worst"? Just a bit of hyperbole.

 

The pattern is seasonal to slightly cool, and with days with sunshine are over-performing. Boring? Yes. Shitty severe locally? Dear god yes.

 

We start booking major snowstorms on the models again and I will buy into some concern. 

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A 1 degree C anomaly on a 372 hour forecast is "a turn for the worst"? Just a bit of hyperbole.
 
The pattern is seasonal to slightly cool, and with days with sunshine are over-performing. Boring? Yes. Shitty severe locally? Dear god yes.
 
We start booking major snowstorms on the models again and I will buy into some concern. 

closing in on spartman bad.


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20 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

A 1 degree C anomaly on a 372 hour forecast is "a turn for the worst"? Just a bit of hyperbole.

 

The pattern is seasonal to slightly cool, and with days with sunshine are over-performing. Boring? Yes. Shitty severe locally? Dear god yes.

 

We start booking major snowstorms on the models again and I will buy into some concern. 

It's the "bad for thunderstorms" most of us are complaining about, not the cold.  If it's going to be in the low 40s again at some point I'd rather have a snowstorm.  Stat padding wet snow is better than total nothingburger weather.  I suspect the ridge will lean in from the northwest eventually and early May will turn very warm.  Still not a very interesting pattern as moisture return will be slow as typical after such a troughy pattern.

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It will be interesting to see if the areas do get any meaningful snowfall down the road, these are usually the type of patterns that can definitely produce systems that "make their own cold" . I look at it 2 ways. On the one hand, it's been quite a few years in a row now that we've seen some crazy late accumulating snows in this region. Seems to be the new thing. On the other hand, you can look at that as we are due for a year to not have any meaningful Spring snows.

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For people keeping track of the model scores at home, the GFS was able to sniff out the Typhoon in the Pacific far before the Euro did.   Continues the trend of better performance with TCs as noted last year.  

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The point remains. What effect will this eruption have on our weather?

None.


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