• Member Statistics

    16,680
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    sereinwriter
    Newest Member
    sereinwriter
    Joined
madwx

Spring 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

19 hours ago, Stebo said:

I wouldn't mind getting some precip for soil moisture and even a couple inches of snow to hit average. Its march it would be gone in a couple days anyways

Detroit is at 41.3" on the season. The current average is 42.7", however the new 1991-2020 normals start in May. By my calculation the new average will climb to 44.6" unless they use some quality control (which we know they love to do :whistle:). The 20th century average was 39.1" (thanks to a sucky mid century) and the period of record avg (1880-2020) is 40.9".

 

Anyway you slice it this will look like a pretty avg snow season (which of course was anything but from the grass tips of Jan to the 2-3 foot drifts or Feb) so I'd rather a nice storm to just safely bump us on the plus side.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS coming back down to earth in snow totals E of Iowa and much more in line with the v16 and Euro.  Expecting DAB to 1" here

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS is hitting a freezing rain threat around here with the early week storm.  If it occurs, I suspect impacts would be more of an elevated object thing given the recent warm spell and lack of cold air going in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had a bit of fun yesterday and plotted out a four panel map of the 1974 "Super Outbreak". I thought I would share the data here for those interested.

1974_SuperOutbreak.thumb.png.81d58f9bfdbb24802595d69f5f21dc8a.png

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, blizzardof96 said:

I had a bit of fun yesterday and plotted out a four panel map of the 1974 "Super Outbreak". I thought I would share the data here for those interested.

1974_SuperOutbreak.thumb.png.81d58f9bfdbb24802595d69f5f21dc8a.png

Thanks for posting that.  

4/3/1974 is arguably the most notorious weather date in history.  Say the date to most weather enthusiasts anywhere and they will be able to immediately recognize it as the Super Outbreak or at least be able to come up with the answer after thinking about it for a minute.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Thanks for posting that.  

4/3/1974 is arguably the most notorious weather date in history.  Say the date to most weather enthusiasts anywhere and they will be able to immediately recognize it as the Super Outbreak or at least be able to come up with the answer after thinking about it for a minute.

It’s no 8/10/2020 though

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Thanks for posting that.  

4/3/1974 is arguably the most notorious weather date in history.  Say the date to most weather enthusiasts anywhere and they will be able to immediately recognize it as the Super Outbreak or at least be able to come up with the answer after thinking about it for a minute.

I actually spoke about it at length at a weather presentation I gave tonight.

The White County courthouse in Monticello, IN

monticelo_courthouse.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

I actually spoke about it at length at a weather presentation I gave tonight.

The White County courthouse in Monticello, IN

monticelo_courthouse.jpg

I love the old Fujita map.  This kind of detailed damage plot was ahead of its time.  Click for higher resolution.

fujita_bigmap.jpg

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

don't look now but the drought is expanding across the Midwest.  Gotta hope some of these systems in the next few weeks actually pan out

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, madwx said:

don't look now but the drought is expanding across the Midwest.  Gotta hope some of these systems in the next few weeks actually pan out

I was just commenting to my wife this morning on how dry it was and there isn't much precip in the forecast either.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WestMichigan said:

I was just commenting to my wife this morning on how dry it was and there isn't much precip in the forecast either.

We hardly had any plain rain the entire winter, just very small amounts here and there. February's deep snowpack did hit about 1.5" water content (entirely from snow) that was slowly released as it melted without aid of any precip. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

We hardly had any plain rain the entire winter, just very small amounts here and there. February's deep snowpack did hit about 1.5" water content (entirely from snow) that was slowly released as it melted without aid of any precip. 

First time of this that I can recall. Full sun and temps of 40+ ate the entire snow pack. Even today in the shade you can find a few remnants of snow.. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Adding to the discussion on the lack of rain, its the same here where scant rain that is forecast has never materialized this last week, I thought mid-week was going to be a wash-out and it turned out virtually nothing fell! It enhanced the warmth we had. Yesterday's storms that my point was flip-flopping on 6 times obviously didn't produce like it did south of me. I welcome the very sunny conditions, its about time we had a good March.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like the question isn’t if it’s going to snow Sun night-Mon, but how much...


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

Adding to the discussion on the lack of rain, its the same here where scant rain that is forecast has never materialized this last week, I thought mid-week was going to be a wash-out and it turned out virtually nothing fell! It enhanced the warmth we had. Yesterday's storms that my point was flip-flopping on 6 times obviously didn't produce like it did south of me. I welcome the very sunny conditions, its about time we had a good March.

Same here. For several days, models were spitting out around an inch of qpf for our area yesterday. Final total imby? The big T.  lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, DAFF said:

First time of this that I can recall. Full sun and temps of 40+ ate the entire snow pack. Even today in the shade you can find a few remnants of snow.. 

Actually...the deep snowpacks of 2014 AND 2015 saw slow, rain less melts too. only the deep pack of 2018 was melted accompanied by rain. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It hasn’t been in the same area every time. But GFS has been spinning up something fierce for the 18th in the last few runs (not counting 12z currently).

EDIT: Basically neutered on the 12z. I shouldn’t have said anything. :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is actually pretty good agreement on a cutter going far NW around the 21-24.  Should flood the area with mild air and bring a chance of thunderstorms.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, madwx said:

There is actually pretty good agreement on a cutter going far NW around the 21-24.  Should flood the area with mild air and bring a chance of thunderstorms.

It looks similar to the last warm system.  Could use some rain here, but track is too far NW once again.  It's already like the mid-summer patter where the trailing cold front has a line of precip that weakens to nothing as it approaches Michigan.  :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm very pleased to see the current chill will be short-lived.  The Euro has 50s back to Iowa later this week and then 60s by early next week.  The daffodils are about ready to bloom in my yard.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.