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nj2va

Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs

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7 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said:

Looks like about another 30 minutes of sleet here. How are we looking for a possible 2nd round this evening? Is that still a thing?

NWS forecast is for an inch additional.  latest models suggest we have a light mix later which transitions to snow.  I'm not counting on it, but another inch would be nice.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Do I have to go back to when we were only 48 hours out and post those trend gifs showing EVERYTHING with 6" plus for DC and Baltimore and trending better EVERY run?  Yea it immediately started to fall apart after that and by last night signs were this could go down this way...but this one has to hurt even more because it was trending better until about 48 hours out...all the others looked really good at like 100 hours but the slow bleed to fail started much earlier.  This one actually looked good at 48 hours and then fell apart.   Just because I was worried about the mid level warm layer...and I am not shocked it ended up killing a lot of people's snow dreams...doesn't mean I wasn't hopeful this one would be different and work out.  You don't find it amazing that we keep getting "decent" chances and they ALL break the wrong way for 95?  

And yet Texas gets snow...Seattle gets snow. Explain that, lol

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Do I have to go back to when we were only 48 hours out and post those trend gifs showing EVERYTHING with 6" plus for DC and Baltimore and trending better EVERY run?  Yea it immediately started to fall apart after that and by last night signs were this could go down this way...but this one has to hurt even more because it was trending better until about 48 hours out...all the others looked really good at like 100 hours but the slow bleed to fail started much earlier.  This one actually looked good at 48 hours and then fell apart.   Just because I was worried about the mid level warm layer...and I am not shocked it ended up killing a lot of people's snow dreams...doesn't mean I wasn't hopeful this one would be different and work out.  You don't find it amazing that we keep getting "decent" chances and they ALL break the wrong way for 95?  

You are an amazing forecaster and I’ve learned a ton from your posts and appreciate your insights a ton, but you did say yesterday to expect a positive bust in the immediate metro this time, no?

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Do I have to go back to when we were only 48 hours out and post those trend gifs showing EVERYTHING with 6" plus for DC and Baltimore and trending better EVERY run?  Yea it immediately started to fall apart after that and by last night signs were this could go down this way...but this one has to hurt even more because it was trending better until about 48 hours out...all the others looked really good at like 100 hours but the slow bleed to fail started much earlier.  This one actually looked good at 48 hours and then fell apart.   Just because I was worried about the mid level warm layer...and I am not shocked it ended up killing a lot of people's snow dreams...doesn't mean I wasn't hopeful this one would be different and work out.  You don't find it amazing that we keep getting "decent" chances and they ALL break the wrong way for 95?  

Literally EVERYTHING was trending well for this and then we get enough crap thermals that it wrecks the setup. Just one of those years I guess. There will (hopefully) be years where we go the other way and score more often. Based on the last couple years just happy to have a chance ... that's moving in the right direction.

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

And yet Texas gets snow...Seattle gets snow. Explain that, lol

i think the general theme for the past few years has been most of the trough has been in the central US or Western US. So when that happens....places like Texas will end up doing better than us. We really didnt get any of the arctic air that Lousiana got,etc

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Just now, Ji said:

i think the general theme for the past few years has been most of the trough has been in the central US or Western US. So when that happens....places like Texas will end up doing better than us. We really didnt get any of the arctic air that Lousiana got,etc

Okay...so why is that? We can't get the trough over us...why? Bad roll of the dice?

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Under oranges and dumping sleet. Over 5"

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Ended with about an inch of sleet here in Charlottesville. CHO is reporting 0.46” equivalent, which is about half the amount of qpf I was expecting here. 

Only 0.46”? That really is disappointing. So many ways to fail.

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Okay...so why is that? We can't get the trough over us...why? Bad roll of the dice?

the PAC has been awful for us the past few years so alot of the energy is dumped into the west and we get a SE ridge. And then when we have blocking like we did this year...the PAC is still screwing us so we are not maximing our chances. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

So, PARA Gfs last night  lookin good right now!

Have no idea what the actual verification scores are, but the para always seems like a joke to me. It seems much worse than the model it is replacing, which already leaves a lot to be desired. Para just seems too cold and snowy all the time.

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1 minute ago, Grothar of Herndon said:

27/24

light sleet and sun looks ready too pop out from clouds. 

I thought this was going to be a 12 to 18 hour storm. It has been about 6 hours in Herndon

there is no way we got even close to an inch of QPF...unless we had alot when i was sleeping

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10 minutes ago, Ji said:

gfs still has a good amount of precip after midnight

Yes what are people thinking because I think if precip continues tonight it will  be ZR any thoughts?

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1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Just measured 2" of sleet in Germantown.

I was hoping to get at least few inches of snow before changing to sleet.  may be in the next few hours.  oh well... 

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13 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

And now we're back to sleet but that was probably the heaviest snow we've seen all year. 

Where in Annapolis are you? Here in Bay Ridge I've only got ~3/4" of accumulation. Looks like I've been in a dry slot, but that might change here in a few minutes.

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Do I have to go back to when we were only 48 hours out and post those trend gifs showing EVERYTHING with 6" plus for DC and Baltimore and trending better EVERY run?  Yea it immediately started to fall apart after that and by last night signs were this could go down this way...but this one has to hurt even more because it was trending better until about 48 hours out...all the others looked really good at like 100 hours but the slow bleed to fail started much earlier.  This one actually looked good at 48 hours and then fell apart.   Just because I was worried about the mid level warm layer...and I am not shocked it ended up killing a lot of people's snow dreams...doesn't mean I wasn't hopeful this one would be different and work out.  You don't find it amazing that we keep getting "decent" chances and they ALL break the wrong way for 95?  

Despite the positive trends leading in, I never really bought into a "good snow solution" for MBY; there just wasn't enough of a consensus to get me there. I accepted that we might see an inch or two of snow (and maybe more if we got really lucky for a few hours) followed by a lot of sleet. Reality is that we sleeted for 6-7 hours with lulls in between (may have started as a little snow, but I was asleep). I was prepared for a sleetfest, so the lack of precip is what got me down, rather than the warm nose.

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