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Obs and nowcast Super Bowl Sunday 4A-6P Feb 7, 2021


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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

38° and rain here in SW Suffolk before the evap cooling kicks in.

Hey there SW Suffolk.  We are right on the battle line at the moment.  Literally each time I look up from my book the precip type is different but def trending snowier as cautiously expected. Intensity is up for sure now.

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The problem is it’s gonna work out at 32°, not good enough for accumulating snow, hopefully the in-line low merges with the ocean low and starts pumping colder air from the upper levels or at least colder air starts bleeding in from the Hudson valley. Meanwhile snowing moderately sticking to the colder side of the street. 

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Climate experts - Don, Bluewave et al, 

How to handle this? Could be moot by the 17th?

Who knows the final amounts in CP today... let me speculate on NYC forecast 6" per their 4AM forecast.

6" would bring the 7 day total to 21.4

That would be 34th in this list.... However, I think this misses the monthly events truth...

I'd rank 13th? 

How would you handle... ?  Thanks,

Walt

Dec 1947 29.2

Jan 2016 27.9

Feb 2006 26.9

Jan 1948 26.8

Jan 2011 24.2

Jan 1996 22.9

Feb 1899 22.5

Feb 1994 21.8

Jan 1935 21.7

Jan 1873 21.5

Dec 1872 21.5

Feb 1983 21.5

GUESS today 21.4

 

Screen Shot 2021-02-07 at 9.29.59 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-02-07 at 9.30.11 AM.png

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1 minute ago, binbisso said:

I wonder if national weather service was correct that models were under doing to QPF  On the Northwest side of system it wasn't supposed to be snowing this hard until around noon according to the models

I don't think that timing is correct. If anything we are a little late to start. And heavy rates were well modeled.

Thus far I think the storm has been well modeled. Most of the >.5 QPF looks to end up east of NYC. However I think areas under the (intensifying?) band near and west of I-95 could also end up with around .5, which would be a little higher than most guidance.

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6 minutes ago, binbisso said:

I wonder if national weather service was correct that models were under doing QPF  On the Northwest side of system it wasn't supposed to be snowing this hard until around noon according to the models

I thought yesterday the heaviest snow amounts would be just nw of the city and on LI, still think so. There’s usually a band that sets up a bit nw of where expected and LI will get rocked in a few hours 

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11 minutes ago, Wxnyc said:

The problem is it’s gonna work out at 32°, not good enough for accumulating snow, hopefully the in-line low merges with the ocean low and starts pumping colder air from the upper levels or at least colder air starts bleeding in from the Hudson valley. Meanwhile snowing moderately sticking to the colder side of the street. 

Its sticking to the thruway. 
 

and psa to everyone, your snowboard, where we measure snow, is a colder surface. (Trying to avoid the “models busted because my street just has an inch of slush” convo that always happens.)

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10 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Hey there SW Suffolk.  We are right on the battle line at the moment.  Literally each time I look up from my book the precip type is different but def trending snowier as cautiously expected. Intensity is up for sure now.

Yeah, I am changing over to light snow now with the temperature down to 37°.

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