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February Banter 2021


George BM
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With apologies to sounding banter-ish...

Current temp forecast for the greater beltway region have temperatures climbing above freezing Sunday into Sunday night and Monday. With all the potential sleet and ice laying around, along with the lack of any advection whatsoever at the surface, and all of that latent cooling due to melting of ice...

how on Earth are temperatures going to get above freezing during this time, at least for many areas away from the city? In-situ CAD is a real thing; we've observed it on countless occasions, and yet the guidance (once again) suggests surface temperatures will climb above freezing sooner than later. Falling for that scenario would be like believing that Lucy will not pull the football away this time around when Charlie Brown tries to kick it. Someone take me off the ledge at convince me that the Sunday night to Monday wave isn't additional light freezing rain or drizzle.

 

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1 minute ago, WxMan1 said:

With apologies to sounding banter-ish...

Current temp forecast for the greater beltway region have temperatures climbing above freezing Sunday into Sunday night and Monday. With all the potential sleet and ice laying around, along with the lack of any advection whatsoever at the surface, and all of that latent cooling due to melting of ice...

how on Earth are temperatures going to get above freezing during this time, at least for many areas away from the city? In-situ CAD is a real thing; we've observed it on countless occasions, and yet the guidance suggests surface temperatures will climb above freezing sooner than later. Someone take me off the ledge at convince me that the Sunday night to Monday wave isn't additional light freezing rain or drizzle.

 

I think many here would look to you for guidance on that one :)

but history does agree with what you’ve posted.

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1 hour ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Wow Houston Texas forecast low of 12 degrees Sunday night with a storm watch out.  That’s gonna blow our seasonal lowest temp away.  SMH. 

Yup, and RIC has more snow than me this year. Hell, some places in Texas probably have more snow than me too. If this keeps up I'm going to just go ahead and plant some palmetto trees in my yard. If we can't have winter, might as well pretend to be tropical. 

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1 minute ago, snowfan said:

I think many here would look to you for guidance on that one :)

but history does agree with what you’ve posted.

We have a thread titled February 13, 2021 Ice Storm. I would be stoked if our FZRA or FDDZ threat didn't extend into Sunday or even Monday, at least for some areas away from the cities.

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13 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

we should start a contest guessing the first 70 degree day of the year.

The past two years, leaving aside the 70-degree days in January and February, 70's started showing up at DCA between March 7 and 14.  So 3-4 weeks from now.  In 2017, DC hit 80 on March 1.  The year before upper 70's by March 8.  Won't be long.

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32 minutes ago, mattie g said:

It’s going to be a miserable week or so of weather, isn’t it?

I can no longer tell. Can't even hazard a guess. I don't know what everyone's expectations are. If it isn't 3 feet of snow its a disaster. Or if its 28 and rain its a different kind of disaster. Or maybe it will be 50 and rain and that's good for later, only it might be bad for later. And then Chuck wanders into the thread and types words. Its Schoedinger's week of weather. Or not. Who can tell anymore. 

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Just curious - when did the NAM suddenly become Mr No? This season the NAM has been all about dashing hopes, and it's for the most part been right.

 

Lately it feels like the NAM and the Euro have switched places lol, with the Euro giving us these mega events 36 hours out and the NAM saying "naaa"

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15 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Weren't any doorbell cams around to see it was it? Lol

Conditions are very unusual for us here in south central Texas. What Mid Atlantic folks would call routine weather, is really freezing our Texan arses off down here LMAO! This is the 2nd day in a row of near 30 temps with deep clouds and north winds gusting to 25 sending wind chills down into the teens! Highs are now in excess of 30 degrees below normal. Our water lines froze solid - no water beginning this morning. The Arctic regime is showing us no mercy at all lol. We are not really prepared for this down here lol. I have gotten used to our warmer climate down here, I actually think 88/67 weather is comfortable lol. In February! I am being forced to haul water from our neighbors three doors down! LOL! Kind of like back in the 1800s! Water is H-E-A-V-Y stuff! You dont see ice on trees very often here! Its been on trees and other objects for two days running, even in the daytime! Its surreal as heck! I keep on having to ask myself am I in south central Texas, or am I back in Northern Virginia? Overnight, MORE freezing drizzle is expected, and some tomorrow. Now, everything has had a couple days to freeze down. Now we are approaching surface frigidization criteria on the ground - and any drizzle that falls WILL freeze on contact, EVERYWHERE! The sun angle isnt helping us one little bit! I have been laughing at my relatives up north in Wisconsin, boy did he laugh at me this morning! As if that wasnt challenging enough for us - Sunday afternoon we are going to get treated to another Arctic front, this one will drop our temps from near 30 on Sunday afternoon, into the teens, and bring freezing rain which is forecast to transition from ZR, to sleet, to snow. The ground is sure cold enough lol. Monday is forecast to be extremely cold for this part of the world, highs struggling to hit 20 degrees and lows which could fall to zero. Its going to get VERY VERY cold here, and we really dont have the infrastructure for it lol. Add the winds, and we might have to contend with -10 wind chills. Tuesday night, it might be a bit milder, but not mild enough to save us from yet another freezing rain event lol. I think this winter may be the South Central Texas' version of 2013-14 lol.

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I hope the Mid Atlantic gets a big snow soon. I think that is a distinct possibility. This is a massively frigid airmass. Someone is going to get totally annihilated by snow, and I think its going to be the Mid Atlantic Region. Climatology tends to agree with me, this is Mid February. You guys are going to get destroyed by heavy snow, sooner rather than later.

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13 hours ago, Scraff said:

I had a can earlier. Frickin delicious! The ABV well hidden. Not super sweet (which I approve). Happy to drink beers / trade beers with my favs weather and beer  peeps. Just ask @nw baltimore wx B)

Yeah, man. Another meet might be in order. I’ve got an oyster stout that needs kegging and I’d love to try that raisin oatmeal concoction that @Scuddz made! Give me a week to finish fining the stout here.

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3 minutes ago, baldereagle said:

Mighty depressing forecast even for February for sure.

No one sane roots for ice storms.

 

 

Well.. if we're going to get ice I rather get some destruction so at least it's interesting to watch. A trace of ice is only fun for watching old people break hips. I wanna see huge oak trees breaking.

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4 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Yeah, man. Another meet might be in order. I’ve got an oyster stout that needs kegging and I’d love to try that raisin oatmeal concoction that @Scuddz made! Give me a week to finish fining the stout here.

I'm going to tone down the cinamon and ramp up the oats next time around, but not bad for a first attempt.  Thinking a riff on a zombie dust clone perhaps next weekend.  Gotta have it ready to go when this one runs out. Or, you know, just buy another keg....

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I lost a little more snow overnight with temps in the upper 20s.

Mid Feb sun and moist, unfrozen soil doing the work.

Happened here yesterday on south facing surfaces. Temps below freezing all day and full overcast, but still saw melt. 

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