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George BM

February Banter 2021

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20 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

None of us are new at this.  Come on team!  Grab a beer and put your rally caps on.

I missed everything before 330 but scanning banter was horrific but that cat thing was funny lol. 

Baltimore peeps have to like HH runs so far . 

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someone (ovechkin) wrote:

Quote

Not to burst any bubbles and I know no two systems are exactly alike and also better to have something in our corner,  but didn’t the RGEM still spit out ridiculous amounts here for 1/31-2/1 after the varsity level models started cutting back? 

I don't know what he's talking about. What now?

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

someone (ovechkin) wrote:

I don't know what he's talking about. What now?

Before the weekend storm 10 days ago, EURO, GFS, NAM started cutting back on our snow totals and suggesting mix/rain as well. The RGEM maybe as late as Saturday still held on to our area getting major accumulations. It was the only model left doing that by that point. It was obviously wrong. I think I am remembering correctly. 

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51 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I think the thing that actually bogs me down more than lack of substantial snow, is lack of real cold. I LOVE winter so much, it's my serenity. 

You give me a winter that has some downright bitter cold stretches, where I can take my hikes on days where highs struggle to get out of the 20s and I can see my breath and hear the crunchy frozen ground beneath my shoes, and visit the river that is at least somewhat frozen and I'll be so happy. 

Winters like this kill me though. So many days with highs in the 40s. The snow events I have gotten have been dinky little events where melting occurs pretty quick. The lack of substantial snow along with no bitter cold stretches at all just hurts. 

We have 3 months(some might argue 2) of the year that can get true blasts of cold weather and when we can't even get it then, it's a real downer for me. 

And to follow up on that, we FINALLY have a major blast of cold air infiltrating into the country, and we have a train of potential systems near our area on the models. Sure, that's nice because you'd have the hopes that one of those storms would track nicely with that cold air and provide our area with a snowstorm over the next 10 days. That possiblity still exists. The idea that really bothers me is that there's also potential every one of those potential storms winds up as either an ice maker, a slop storm, a relatively non-event, or even a rainstorm if it tracks too far north or west. In that scenario, not only do we not get a snowstorm, but due to that train of storms, we'd also never get the blast of cold air. Then before you know it, it's Spring. 

I know many of you would have my head for saying this, but if a weather god came to me right now and said for the next 10 days, you can either be on the brink of the cold air with a very active storm track, OR it'll be very dry but you'll be guaranteed it to be a bitter cold 10 days, I'd take the guaranteed cold. 

At this point I'm just done with the potential after potential. Give me some guaranteed winter and then I'll call it a season. Hopefully things work out and one of these storms does end up giving us the goods before Spring. 

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Kind of interesting how this one 18Z 12K NAM run set off people in the way it did. Sure it was following the 12Z Euro, but it doesn’t even come close to agreeing with the 3K version of itself for the second wave. However we may end up failing, this one model run isn’t worth the anguish. 

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So, while the current RGEM is encouraging, just perhaps a bit of caution that maybe it is once again too aggressive for our area. 

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

It almost always happens this way, Ji throws his tantrums and then the next model runs show improvement. It's like magic

Thank God for JI's tantrums lol.

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14 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Before the weekend storm 10 days ago, EURO, GFS, NAM started cutting back on our snow totals and suggesting mix/rain as well. The RGEM maybe as late as Saturday still held on to our area getting major accumulations. It was the only model left doing that by that point. It was obviously wrong. I think I am remembering correctly. 

you didn't get the sarcasm...

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7 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

No time to play yet. Just wondering if we've reached the point of the storm being impossible to enjoy no matter what happens? If not now, later today for sure

I don't even need to look in the storm thread do I? lol. The irony of participating on the regular sharing a "love" for the same wx but when that wx hits, everyone hates it. And this is an optional hobby with no paycheck. People are plain strange man. 

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43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't even need to look in the storm thread do I? lol. The irony of participating on the regular sharing a "love" for the same wx but when that wx hits, everyone hates it. And this is an optional hobby with no paycheck. People are plain strange man. 

there are some people in the forum who have seen one good snowstorm since 2016

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Just now, Ji said:

there are some people in the forum who have seen one good snowstorm since 2016

yea, well... welcome to the midatlantic that's not running as cold as it used to. If snow droughts negatively affect your life or emotions, you can either do something about it or just get waterboarded. One or the other. 

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none of the snow on clown maps is real. none of it. it was a 2-D representation of the most likely possibility using the data in that run.

this is why the sole reliance on snow maps is killing intelligent discussion on this board. if you don't learn to understand how the energy in the atmosphere directs what happens at the surface but instead invest all of your energy in colorful maps that are at best estimations of how the math will resolve, you're deliberately choosing over and over and over to make yourself miserable. and you might want to think about why you need so much unneeded misery in your life.

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27 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

none of the snow on clown maps is real. none of it. it was a 2-D representation of the most likely possibility using the data in that run.

this is why the sole reliance on snow maps is killing intelligent discussion on this board. if you don't learn to understand how the energy in the atmosphere directs what happens at the surface but instead invest all of your energy in colorful maps that are at best estimations of how the math will resolve, you're deliberately choosing over and over and over to make yourself miserable. and you might want to think about why you need so much unneeded misery in your life.

Disagree this is "killing" intelligent discussion. Still plenty of good analysis in the discussion threads among the majority of the posters. I will agree that some here apparently never look at the upper levels and think the surface p-type/snow maps tell the story, which ofc they never do in isolation.

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20 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

none of the snow on clown maps is real. none of it. it was a 2-D representation of the most likely possibility using the data in that run.

this is why the sole reliance on snow maps is killing intelligent discussion on this board. if you don't learn to understand how the energy in the atmosphere directs what happens at the surface but instead invest all of your energy in colorful maps that are at best estimations of how the math will resolve, you're deliberately choosing over and over and over to make yourself miserable. and you might want to think about why you need so much unneeded misery in your life.

                       I think what constitutes, or not, intelligent discussion is subjective to each viewer. Are some people just annoying as a matter of opinion? Certainly! Anyone who comes here with an open mind can learn a great deal from many knowledgeable people who share without rancor or judgment. Thanks for enlightening us as to your subjectively superior insight, and for counselling these hapless, voluntarily miserable, unwashed weenies with an excellent rhetorical self-check.. Well done..............

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3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

My profile picture will be a model run in a few days

Best model run I have seen for my back yard was that one Euro run where it has the 36 nches over my house.  Bullseye!  We know how that ended up.  I got less than that.  

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21 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Maryland still medical only. Lot of hoops to jump through still...

There are absolutely few if any hoops to jump through. MD just wants your app fee and the docs want their cert fee. The only barrier to entry is about $250. Well... at least that's what I was told by some hypothetical friends.

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11 minutes ago, baldereagle said:

                       I think what constitutes, or not, intelligent discussion is subjective to each viewer. Are some people just annoying as a matter of opinion? Certainly! Anyone who comes here with an open mind can learn a great deal from many knowledgeable people who share without rancor or judgment. Thanks for enlightening us as to your subjectively superior insight, and for counselling these hapless, voluntarily miserable, unwashed weenies with an excellent rhetorical self-check.. Well done..............

Great post. I’m def a fan of baldeagles :popcorn:

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3 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Great post. I’m def a fan of baldeagles :popcorn:

Well of course you are. We’re all aware how you feel about Trixie. Hope you enjoyed your break 

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