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Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

On the 12z Euro, it appears that H5 is a bit flatter out ahead of the system than it's 00z counterpart. Would be nice to score two solid advisory level events next week.

I'm hoping for an advisory and a warning :lol:

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm hoping for an advisory and a warning :lol:

looks like my guitar gig on the 31st is safe though!

  • Haha 4

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm hoping for an advisory and a warning :lol:

I've learned to set my expectations low here over the past 3 years.

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EPS mean definitely moved south with the Op. Really want that to continue. Wouldn’t take a lot to have the meat of the snow band through much of our area. Precip starts in under 100hrs...

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13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS mean definitely moved south with the Op. Really want that to continue. Wouldn’t take a lot to have the meat of the snow band through much of our area. Precip starts in under 100hrs...

But, but Weather Will said it ticked north.

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53 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

12Z EPS thru Day 5  Basically, the same as 6Z, a tick North at southern edge.

68CE79BA-989B-4820-9158-5A457AB6C813.png

CD19D2E2-CC48-479F-8D71-35AED3C63A6D.png

A646DF7D-3881-4E1A-B18A-8AFDC5DA68DC.png

9F9DA293-BF5F-4EEB-B0E2-0E2FB79166F8.png

 

33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS mean definitely moved south with the Op. Really want that to continue. Wouldn’t take a lot to have the meat of the snow band through much of our area. Precip starts in under 100hrs...

We’re at the stage where I think the op is better given the lower resolution ensembles will struggle with the thermals and CAD. If we take anything from the EPS it’s the trend with MSLP and h5 heights not the snow mean.  So like Wxusaf said the eps supported the slight south trend in the op despite what the clown maps say. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

We’re at the stage where I think the op is better given the lower resolution ensembles will struggle with the thermals and CAD. If we take anything from the EPS it’s the trend with MSLP and h5 heights not the snow mean.  So like Wxusaf said the eps supported the slight south trend in the op despite what the clown maps say. 

Despite what everyone here does, the utility of ensembles is not for the snow maps. It’s for track and strength of features. The track shifted south from 0z to 12z. Once we get the the point of sweating thermal profiles (12z Saturday runs probably), then you’re focusing on the operational model. 

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

We are gonna get whacked twice. I can feel it. 

I guarantee it, and WxWatcher007 will be going out of business 

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From Mount Holly afternoon AFD- This just about covers the range of possibilities with this event lol. I still lean towards more souther/possibly somewhat suppressed wave, but what do I know?

12Z guidance (in general) did trend a little more amplified with the upper-level system thus allowing the primary-low to progress a bit further north before falling apart, which in turn slightly delays the formation of the secondary low. The envelope of sensible weather possibilities remains large, with snow rapidly changing to mix from S-N in the most amplified/northward tracking solutions (UKMET), to the mix line stalling over the area, before transitioning back to snow on the back end (ECMWF), to generally pure snow more focused over the southern half of the area (GFS). Although not explicitly shown in the 12Z deterministic suite, the possibility of the wave being suppressed and the bulk of the precip shield remaining to our south still remains on the table, and this is particularly highlighted by a camp of GEFS members.

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2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

GFS with more ridging out in front. Not sure it's going to be what we want lol

Closed low depicted at 96 hrs S of VA Beach trying to counter. That's new at that hour.

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Closed low depicted at 96 hrs S of VA Beach trying to counter. That's new at that hour.

Seems like it succeeded?? Moderate snow back into DC at 114. 

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Need a vomit emoji reaction

Overall the system was further south but warmer with too much ridging out in front. 

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Just now, Cobalt said:

Seems like it succeeded?? Moderate snow back into DC at 114. 

Yeah, verbatim its a icy mix (lol, we know how those go in the urban areas) to snow scenario for DC.  

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