WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z GEFS prob  maps...3, 6, 12

 

Here's the probability of 1" of snow just to get the full picture:

78728046_gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_24hr_ge_1-1889200(1).thumb.png.dea8343403fe10f51f5bd63a2c24a5fb.png

Compared to 18z and yeah you can tell which is better

1619140802_gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_24hr_ge_1-1889200(2).thumb.png.3a1118f7e9af012b0655d6ab529f7367.png

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4 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

0z CMC is 3-6” area wide.  

FF00BE67-9D6A-46B3-97AB-2D61606C3607.png
 

EDIT: Storm drops 22 mb in 6 hours.  From 992 to 970.  

        That map includes a modest contribution from the Monday event.

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:

something feels off.....

 

oh i know what it is. the euro gives us more snow Monday night than Thursday

Yes, it did 11 hours ago....

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS is a nice run after this storm as well. Patience finally paying off??

heather would be proud

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

        That map includes a modest contribution from the Monday event.

If we are dreaming then backing that bomb west and slowing a bit would be fun.  

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27 minutes ago, Ji said:

how do we get the upper level low to slow/close just to our west?

Yes,  And it will slow down through the middle of the country it always does inside 72hrs, Of course the confluence can still shove it out to sea if it doesn't lift out somewhat

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can we change the name of this thread...there is only one storm to talk about in the this thread

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Geps as predicted lost that weird split wave look. Back to looking like other guidance. It’s south of the gefs and significantly weaker though.  But at least it’s back to the right progression. Targets central VA. 

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Only positive it seems is the sw is stronger coming at us. 

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Just now, yoda said:

Going to be a southern slider

Yup....nothing like the gfs.

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No way to know how this ends up, but EURO has caved to the GFS over the course of the day in the sense that it actually has a significant coastal. 

I'd still hate to be the guy betting against the EURO/UKIE combo, regardless of how I've felt they've done this year. See ya'll in the morning. 

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