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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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6z EPS looks essentially the same as 0z. Probably a tick further SE.
Lol

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Synoptically nam and gfs look relatively similar on 5h with s/w but differ with tpv. Gfs has tpv more north and east of 12z nam placement. Nam looks more like ukmet and euro at the surface so there’s that too I.e more south, weaker strung out low 

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Not really loving the nam. It looked good at 60

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2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

12z Icon is a hit for Fredericksburg down to the VA/NC border.  

thats actually really good cause it was weak and south for a few days

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Just now, Ji said:

thats actually really good cause it was weak and south for a few days

Damn I wanted to say that 

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2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Who’s doing GFS pbp?

its looking like its going to go south/weaker but well see. To me weaker will be south

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More tpv press, less confluence over the north east through 60

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The thing that’s stood out to me even on the good gfs runs is that the flow aloft is a bit flatter than I think we’d like out ahead of this. It certainly doesn’t have that hecs look with a deep feed into the gom. Doesn’t mean we can’t get a significant snow but I wonder if a lack of separation from the first system is having an effect. As is, I think we can get by (and might even want) this to be a truly west to east system that favors our lat instead of relying on a wound up coastal.

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2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

More tpv press, less confluence over the north east through 60

its actually looks like a more consolidated SW in the middle of the country than 6z

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21 hours ago, stormtracker said:

This is the post i was waiting for.   It’s gonna snow y’all. 

Don't we wish.  The Euro slid back but not as far as the UKMET.  The 06Z Euro ensembles only give us a 10 to 20 percent chance of 3 inches. The 06Z GEFS loves us. Why do I think it better to be with the UKMET and Euro?  Still too early to give up.   I still write for the post so that limits me from saying too much until we post our article. 

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a storm that transfer from SW VA should not be missing us

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Is it such a terrible spot to be in 4 days out, though? Still looks close to me...

It’s not, but the issue is this model was the farthest N, you’d prefer to see it kind of stick and stay and other guidance trend towards it

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Ooof. GFS is a disaster all week. Total QPF less than a half inch combined for both systems in DC w minimal snow,

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That energy dropping south of the Hudson Bay is robust this run. It’s almost spooky as it comes out of nowhere to screw us. This is getting painful. 

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Is it such a terrible spot to be in 4 days out, though? Still looks close to me...

its the trend. If it was trending north it would be a great place to be

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