WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

Thanks.  Sounds like guidance as a whole has been good but the GEFS/GFS appears to be terrible.  I guess we kinda knew that. 

GEFS was in 100% agreement basically yesterday...I'm of the opinion any model run or ensemble is only telling you today what it thinks might happen and often that changes with each run. I'm certain they are useful for something but even if psu only had the gefs to look at yesterday he couldn't tell you what today's gfs would do. That said I do think its pretty remarkable the models gave the hint something was going to happen so long ago...but clearly the details even with Thursdays storm aren't clear until most models agree...anyone telling you what Thursday will be is giving an educated guess...we have a general idea right now but not a locked and loaded one. All my opinion of course and to reiterate i think the models ability to generate potential so far in advance is spectacular unfortunately we humans f it up by trying to out predict them 

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro ,Para, and Ukmet keying on potential day 7/8 . Lots of tracking ahead :D

We’ve been tracking. It would be nice to start hitting. Wrt that I touched on it a bit yesterday, it’s there but it displays the same limitations our other threats have. Limited depth of cold so if the flow relaxes it cuts but if the flow is suppressive enough to keep us supporting of snow the wave starts to look sheared and weak and like a minor event. You might not mind since you sometimes get excited over a snow shower or a few sleet pellets but it’s got the same inhibiting factor wrt chances it’s a significant legit snowstorm. That said it seems everything is going to have to be that kind of thread the needle so if we keep poking at the needle eventually you would think the thread would go through just by chance. 

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

I honestly dont know how you can trust the Euro anymore. It has had way bigger run to run changes than I am used to seeing from it. It must be broken or something. 

Is there still a chance that the reduced amount of plane flights globally is making the quality of data lower across the board? Probably less of an issue now than there was in the spring but I can't help but wonder.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We’ve been tracking. It would be nice to start hitting. Wrt that I touched on it a bit yesterday, it’s there but it displays the same limitations our other threats have. Limited depth of cold so if the flow relaxes it cuts but if the flow is suppressive enough to keep us supporting of snow the wave starts to look sheared and weak and like a minor event. You might not mind since you sometimes get excited over a snow shower or a few sleet pellets but it’s got the same inhibiting factor wrt chances it’s a significant legit snowstorm. That said it seems everything is going to have to be that kind of thread the needle so if we keep poking at the needle eventually you would think the thread would go through just by chance. 

Euro is showing a colder airmass  verbatim leading in. Saturday highs in the teens in Pennsylvania day before . Haven't seen that yet this season. I think Eps will have a nice look 

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43 minutes ago, Ji said:

The Canadian tpv is way north of the gfs but the storm isn't much more north. There are other influences

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

i think we can safely add TPV to the weenie bingo card

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I rarely chime in but feel like I need to get this one off my chest.. this is to the few barking that models suck.. blah blah blah

U might need to look at urself for a moment. You saw one model with a 0z output of 932 (exaggerating) snowicaine bombogenesis cyclone off the coast at 7 days out.  You canceled ur weekend plans went out and bought salt and raided the grocery store for milk and bread because you set ur expectation at 20 inches.

The fail was on you.. I won't throw names on hear but they have said it time and time again.. the point of these models and all the data is to look for trends look at what's going right for your area and whats going wrong for your area. And then you make a logical decision of what your weather might be like that many days out.  

Did anyone see nws or weather Channel or any weather app put snow in the forecast 7 days away 90% chance 8-10 accumulation? No.. why?? Cause the people that know what they are doing know that setting your expectation at 20 inches 7 days out would get you a first class ticket to the unemployment line. 

If your feelings are truly hurt right now then your doing this hobby all wrong. Models don't suck, (Let's keep the NAM out of this lol) its the people that don't know how to read the data correctly that suck.

And on a side note im not talking about a good majority of posters on here.. we all have fun and love to see the bombs 7 days out but we live in reality where.. well a whole hell of a lot can change in 7 days.

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5 minutes ago, Whitecheddar said:

I rarely chime in but feel like I need to get this one off my chest.. this is to the few barking that models suck.. blah blah blah

U might need to look at urself for a moment. You saw one model with a 0z output of 932 (exaggerating) snowicaine bombogenesis cyclone off the coast at 7 days out.  You canceled ur weekend plans went out and bought salt and raided the grocery store for milk and bread because you set ur expectation at 20 inches.

The fail was on you.. I won't throw names on hear but they have said it time and time again.. the point of these models and all the data is to look for trends look at what's going right for your area and whats going wrong for your area. And then you make a logical decision of what your weather might be like that many days out.  

Did anyone see nws or weather Channel or any weather app put snow in the forecast 7 days away 90% chance 8-10 accumulation? No.. why?? Cause the people that know what they are doing know that setting your expectation at 20 inches 7 days out would get you a first class ticket to the unemployment line. 

If your feelings are truly hurt right now then your doing this hobby all wrong. Models don't suck, (Let's keep the NAM out of this lol) its the people that don't know how to read the data correctly that suck.

And on a side note im talking about a good majority of posters on here.. we all have fun and love to see the bombs 7 days out but we live in reality where.. well a whole hell of a lot can change in 7 days.

You're not saying anything that everyone in here doesn't already know. Hope it made you feel better though.

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1 hour ago, Dabuckeyes said:

It appears the UKIE does not get any precip into MD.  

Yup. Nothing new. It has never gotten precip into MD for this threat. It was just yesterday that it started to even show a storm. 

Other than the GFS and GEFS coming back to earth...this threat hasn't really changed imo. The majority of models over the last 48hrs - euro, uk, icon and cmc - have actually trended slightly better or stayed the same. 

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Very nice trend on Eps for day 7/8 . 

Back on the horse! Lol

0CA1B62B-1C25-4B3F-852D-40C9A8A61E45.png

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12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps with a bit stronger primary for Thurs . I might root for that to get as strong as it can fmby to see something.

I don't think there is an EPS member that totally blanks us. Said it late last night, but I'd take the EPS' 1" of cold snow on Thursday.

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Just now, jaydreb said:

That image is giving me flashbacks.  

If that does so will this.  

6A3F8757-ABF8-4D06-81D4-A0CA24256DC5.png

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Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

It's never good to be at 2.5" on long range ensembles.

Huh? For a 24 hr period? I’d say that is a signal

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1 hour ago, LP08 said:

Huh? For a 24 hr period? I’d say that is a signal

This captures the full period I believe (initial thump and then costal redevelopment??)

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_48hr-2245600.thumb.png.a696322ef7f000bacf539512a2cd1441.png

giphy.gif

 

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53 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

GEFS was in 100% agreement basically yesterday...I'm of the opinion any model run or ensemble is only telling you today what it thinks might happen and often that changes with each run. I'm certain they are useful for something but even if psu only had the gefs to look at yesterday he couldn't tell you what today's gfs would do. That said I do think its pretty remarkable the models gave the hint something was going to happen so long ago...but clearly the details even with Thursdays storm aren't clear until most models agree...anyone telling you what Thursday will be is giving an educated guess...we have a general idea right now but not a locked and loaded one. All my opinion of course and to reiterate i think the models ability to generate potential so far in advance is spectacular unfortunately we humans f it up by trying to out predict them 

Agree with all this. That first point is totally true. The models can only project based on the data they have at the time they initialize. If we start trying to tinker around with predictions on top of predictions chaos would take over and we would get too much volatility.  So as new data comes in every 6 hours they adjust as a crucial feature gets better sampled or something they projected turns out to be an error. 
 

The second point...only having the gfs would be a problem. Only having any one model would be. None of them are so good that an error at day 5-10 is unlikely. Contrary we know they definitely do have errors. No operational is ever in any run going to nail the details globally at day 5-10.  The trick is predicting the errors and adjusting for them. Only having one tool would make that harder since often the others give clues.  We could still adjust for biases but the gfs was actually running contrary to its typical bias in this case.  
 

The GFS gets way too much attention Imo.  It saturates us because it runs a full suite every 6 hours, it’s the main flagship tool of NCEP and its the first and most easily accessible product every run. But frankly it’s behind the other major globals. It’s on par with the JMA and we dismiss that as a joke.  But honestly more times then not over the 25 years I’ve been doing this the gfs adds more uncertainty then of it simply didn’t exist. More often then not we probably could have done better had it simply not been there!  Some of that is our fault. If we weighted it correctly based on its scores it wouldn’t be as problematic but we weight it too heavily and allow it to skew our perception imo.  Imagine if it was only the ICON showing what the gfs was the last 2 days...and the gfs was showing the weak POS the icon was...our perception would have been completely different. But they shouldn’t be. That’s our fault. 
 

lastly (and I bear some blame here) the way we evaluate on here is not really scientifically sound and healthy. We know guidance can’t see details at day 7+ but the problem is all we care about is one detail...snow in our yard. And so we try to pull that detail from guidance we know can’t possibly get that right at long range. If I had an actual job forecasting I would never do what we do here and talk about snow chances for a specific spot 10 days away. If I was actually forecasting the last few days for Thursday I would say “a threat for a storm along the mid Atlantic coast. Snow or rain possible, we will know more details as we get closer”.  That’s in reality the best we can do. But that’s not good enough on here. Some get carried away. I probably feed into that because I sometimes try to be an optimist and not just crap on a threat until it’s apparent it’s not working out. The left few days I saw the flaws but I did have some hope maybe guidance was weakening the energy out west in error. Sometimes day 5-8 I’ve seen that and it bounces back. But it almost always bounces back at day 5 and we’re inside that so when I didn’t see a trend the last 24 hours I think you could see the frustration in my posts. This was my baby. I picked out this threat 3 weeks out. And in general the pattern progressed how I thought but the details matter. But I wanted it to work. I want snow. I want DC to get snow. I didn’t want to admit I was wrong and some of the discreet details just weren’t coming together. And I was probably too optimistic in my posts for those reasons.  Even now it’s not 100% over. Maybe guidance is dampening the feature too much. But we’re getting to the point I’m not going to stick my head in the sand anymore wrt the obvious issues showing.  
 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Huh? For a 24 hr period? I’d say that is a signal

How have the last few signals worked out?

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How have the last few signals worked out?

Terribly.  But what else is there to do?  I don’t know about everyone else but we only get 2.5 months of winter and I’m going to watch until it’s over.

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I would like to state this just to get it off my chest. When we get a couple of systems that put down rain, only rain, then I’ll climb on board the temp train. Right now it does not seem possible to get non cold front related precip here. The awesome storm track that we had all fall until about mid December vanished as soon as the holy grail blocking set up. We have had 0.3” of precip here since Jan 1. If this is what Atlantic blocking brings then I don’t ever want Atlantic blocking again.

Im tired of hearing about patterns, blocking, good windows, storm signals. Until the weather proves that precipitation can occur here, then I’m not putting any faith into forecast.

Ok I’m good now. Just had to get that out of my system. LOL. Good luck y’all. Think we may need it.

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Just now, LP08 said:

Terribly.  But what else is there to do?  I don’t know about everyone else but we only get 2.5 months of winter and I’m going to watch until it’s over.

I’m with you. But I don’t think ens snow maps mean much quite frankly.

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10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How have the last few signals worked out?

The Cubs and Red Sox finally won a World Series in my lifetime. We just have to keep at it. 

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m with you. But I don’t think ens snow maps mean much quite frankly.

If you take them at face value, sure.  But how I see them as more of a target zone per se. Could be flawed but it at least shows where cold and precip might be meeting. It’s a quick glance to see potentially after looking at H5.  I’m going to keep posting and let the chips fall for the remaining 6 weeks we have left.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I took issue with your reason not the prediction. The high location was a result of other drivers not a cause. The compressed flow in front in the Atlantic and the amplitude of the wave are the real issues. The wave needed to be stronger or the flow more relaxed in front.  Some combo. 2 days ago for a bit those things were trending our way across guidance. Since they have gone the other way. 

My rationale two days was either a) storm is more progressive (weaker) and we Chet light snow but perhaps better temp profile (maybe) or b) it’s wound up and we get more dynamics and qpf. The reason we’re failing is confluence to the north created by TPV. I mentioned too much confluence and we get no development and southern track. Pretty sure that’s close to what’s happening. I dunno

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