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Obs and nowcast Friday afternoon-night 18z NY Day 2021- 12z/2


wdrag
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34.2/26.7 Wantage NJ with a wall of mixed precipitation coming at us in the bright band I78 -I80 region. I see ice pellets and grauple in 1 or 2 reports ABE-TTN at 155PM. Recent approximate 14z HRRRX cycle has surprisingly large amounts of ice pellets and freezing rain coming to the NWS advisory area in the NYC subforum.  12z/1 SPC HREF continues with the ice amounts as previously posted from the 00z cycle-this seems a little robust but the ridges above 1000 feet may do quite well.  Noticed the 12z /1 NAM has cooling its 12 hr fast for 00z/2 at LGA T1,3 and I dont believe its +5/+6C T1 temps at 1am and 7a Saturday...BL wind not strong enough to drive those temps up, i dont think.  Looking for a ne flow there.  Therefore, I think the warming is going to have to come more from conduction or precip quitting after the initial 4 hour burst, rather than advection, in our NYC subforum.  Should have reports coming into this page by 4 or 430P. 

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36 here in Sloatsburg, down a degree from 37 an hour ago. This should be about as low as we get for this one. This mid-level warmth has already punched in, not expecting much more than rain from this one, maybe a few sleet pellets at the start, but this is going to be mainly rain for us

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Temperatures hanging only slightly above freezing to begin at 33/24. Looking for about a 6-10 hour frozen period before I get back above freezing and change to rain. 
 

looking like a haves and have nots again WRT ice at my lower elevation (750 or so) versus most elsewhere in the county...maybe we see .1 here versus most elsewhere being closer to .25.

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

36 here in Sloatsburg, down a degree from 37 an hour ago. This should be about as low as we get for this one. This mid-level warmth has already punched in, not expecting much more than rain from this one, maybe a few sleet pellets at the start, but this is going to be mainly rain for us

It will be rain but think sundown and evaporation cooling may knock temps down another degree or two 

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