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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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I actually didn't mind the look on the Euro. I thought the ambient synoptic 'look' was fine enough, and you can chalk the storm underperformance to the strength of our shortwave. It appeared "limp" out the gate in California compared to other models and I think that set the tone for the rest of the run. I didn't think this was a fantastic model suite, but by no means are we out of the picture. 

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41 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Wishing you guys a look of luck. The 00 Gfs got this weenie excited but when you look at a combo of all the models right now I’m just too far south. N NC and S va look good but minor swings will be big either way. Go south young man

It’s still 5 days out lol At this point imo I’m just happy the forum is even active. I just enjoy the prospect of having a reason to lurk 

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59 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

I actually didn't mind the look on the Euro. I thought the ambient synoptic 'look' was fine enough, and you can chalk the storm underperformance to the strength of our shortwave. It appeared "limp" out the gate in California compared to other models and I think that set the tone for the rest of the run. I didn't think this was a fantastic model suite, but by no means are we out of the picture. 

Nice insight ILMRoss.  I feel that we still have a good shot.

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It seems at 500mb, the ens support the op, so I would guess there are a few outliers that have a more GFS-like solution, while the majority are weak with hardly any snow for anyone

6A16112E-AA87-443F-BB05-D567E1169AB5.thumb.png.01bc270e8a495fc539654193bb759d20.png

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hmm pretty decent back end snow for Hampton Roads as the low wraps up and departs off the coast. I would definitely take that and run with it! 

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3 minutes ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

Timing is killing these runs. Hope to see a slower solution on the 18z.

Holding hope in North Meck.

You talking 12 or 18z . 18z not good NC

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I wouldn't get too excited.

Not yet.

Need some changes.

Very rarely a Miller A b produces, especially this far south.

 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Grayman said:

You talking 12 or 18z . 18z not good NC

Was hoping for the 18z to produce. Hadn't viewed it before posting.

Arggh the 18z was a near complete miss for NC. Let's see if we get a windshield wiper effect later tonight.

Ingredients are there. All about timing.

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40 minutes ago, FLweather said:

I wouldn't get too excited.

Not yet.

Need some changes.

Very rarely a Miller A b produces, especially this far south.

 

 

 

Who would be excited right now?

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2 minutes ago, Avdave said:

I hope Im wrong but the north trend that usually see is def going on. 

thats all folks.jpg

I have a hard time believing that the GFS is dead right and the Euro/UKMet are wrong. Maybe you take a blend. Either way, it’s still no better than a ‘maybe it could work out’ for parts of our forum 

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Congrats Cumberland MD lol imo this is a Morgantown- Cumberland -Harrisburg PA storm assuming normal NW trends continue .... I’m not even a fan of where Blacksburg/Roanoke are sitting but that’s just me still early Maybe throw in Hagerstown too 

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

I have a hard time believing that the GFS is dead right and the Euro/UKMet are wrong. Maybe you take a blend. Either way, it’s still no better than a ‘maybe it could work out’ for parts of our forum 

This. Not too high and not too low with this hobby in the mid range or you’ll burn out. 

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This energy isn’t even over land yet so although it doesn’t look great right now it can still change. I mean look at how well the models did with the last system

 

insert sarcasm 

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