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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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6 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

12z ICON looks encouraging at the end of it's run for next weekend. 

Icon has a totally different evolution then Euro. More GFS like. System for the 8th is all northern stream and runs to our north but then it has a wave right on its heels. 

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This is a cool animation and notice the subtle negative getting closer to the East coast . Everything thing is retrograding.  

One could speculate if going forward in time beyond this range the negative may become focused even further SW.  

Would like to see the Pac to improve further. 

As psu posted the official reversal near Jan 5th, then if you go by HM's post a few days ago, the coldest air  would be near day 20 and beyond, that would be near Jan 25 th. 

There is not as consensus at the present time from the folks I follow as to the eventual location9s) that impacts the brunt of the SSWE event .  

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh186_trend.gif

 

 

 

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@CAPE cmc illustrated what I mean by needing a clean transfer and tightly would (synced up closed mid level circulation). It has a perfect upper level and surface track to get at least some snow into the cities but it doesn’t really phase up well or quickly in the mid levels. It’s too diffuse.  Add just a bit of amplitude though and that might work.  

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On 12/30/2020 at 1:28 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Just looked at the record...dang, what the heck happened that March? 21" inches at BWI? Lol

yeah, the second half of that winter was very active.  the first half of that winter was basically snowless everywhere.  we had a severely negative ao/nao the entire winter though.  i'm guessing the first half of the winter must have been a lot of suppression.  eventually the dam broke and we cashed in.  

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GEFS made a big jump south for the 8th. Para-GFS is strong and wound up however. Lots of options. I still think anything before late in the second week of January is gravy. But odds for gravy have definitely gone up.

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17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS made a big jump south for the 8th. Para-GFS is strong and wound up however. Lots of options. I still think anything before late in the second week of January is gravy. But odds for gravy have definitely gone up.

Sure did.  Nice bump with western ridging as well .

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-0064000.png

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7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The CMC is much colder overall throughout the run than the GFS. One thing I never considered when I saw the blocking being advertised a couple of weeks ago is how much the really cold air is trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. 

We’re going to have to make this work with domestic cold for a while.  We’ve done it before in blocking.  But it does add a level of difficulty. 
ETA: the gfs has been REALLY struggling lately with not just synoptic but major longwave features. It’s had some runs of quality in the past but lately it’s been lost. Until I see signs it’s got it’s act together and can handle this pattern I’m giving it even less weight then normal. GFS has a lot less stratosphere resolution then the euro. I don’t know about the CMC. But the gfs was way off on the strat warm, delaying it by a week. I wonder if given what’s going on now that component is really hurting it. 

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11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Sure did.  Nice bump with western ridging as well .

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-0064000.png

That ridging is a bit Far East...remember we have 2 problems here. Temps but also suppression.  We need the suppression given the marginal temps but that’s a pretty stout block:50/50 combo.  Too much of a good thing and the wave gets squashed to our southeast. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

That ridging is a bit Far East...remember we have 2 problems here. Temps but also suppression.  We need the suppression given the marginal temps but that’s a pretty stout block:50/50 combo.  Too much of a good thing and the wave gets squashed to our southeast. 

It is, but I’ve also noticed there’s been more spacing between the wave and the western ridging. That PAC trough pulling back also pulls the ridging west. 

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That ridging is a bit Far East...remember we have 2 problems here. Temps but also suppression.  We need the suppression given the marginal temps but that’s a pretty stout block:50/50 combo.  Too much of a good thing and the wave gets squashed to our southeast. 

Agree with the ridging being not ideal but I mostly was commenting on the previous very lackluster ridging and most runs barely had a baby bump out west . Definitely the best run yet I've seen the Gefs spit out for 1/8.

Ji will die if se Va and NC are shoveling his digital snow:ski:

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