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WxUSAF

December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting

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Snow day for me snowing mod roads are just wet everything else has caved. worrying tho to south west we have a major dry slot working its way up quickly looks like we all ready had several hours of snow that passed. 26 atm way colder then forecasted at this hour.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji not liking the trend on the HRRR though. I went from 17 to 9” the last 2 runs. Keeps adjusting the warm layer and dry slot north faster the last 2 runs. 

I’m thinking somewhere in between. The heavy rates are overcoming the warm nose at the moment all the way into ROA. Mesoanalysis running right on tap it not a bit colder than predicted at the mid levels, with surface temps running a degree or two below. 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Those bright radar returns about to reach us...interested to see what that offers.  

Love to see some big fatties fly. The small flakes though accumulating....boring.

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Perry, WV. 15 miles west of Woodstock, VA and I 81

heavy snow and 4” on the ground. Super small flakes, the proverbial “cold smoke” so happy I decided to leave SoMD and ride it out here  

temp/DP  24/22

coming down hard now at about 1.5” per hour 

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Those bright radar returns about to reach us...interested to see what that offers.  

That looks like it's going to be pouring snow for a few hours for us!

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29/29 with ZR/IP+. This is turning into a significant ice storm here in Charlottesville. Sidewalks are an ice rink and side streets are close to the same. Trees and bushes are looking frosty. 

20201216_115216.thumb.jpg.0781b1409e83b01ba6861fb96a8dfbb7.jpg

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2 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

just a reminder:

light snow means your visibility is between 3/4 mile and 4 miles.

moderate snow means your visibility is 1/2 mile.

heavy snow means your visibility is 1/4 mile or less.

My visibility is about 150 yards right now.

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Roads are a mess in cabin John area and one of my bball courts is now snow covered so I’ll be entering retirement for a few days. Still coming down here and don’t hear any sleet yet.

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2 minutes ago, MDphotog said:

If that purple is supposed to be sleet, I can tell you it is not accurate up North of Frederick, all snow here.

Decibel relative to Z values - not necessarily directly correlated to actual precip type with regards to radar returns. If you also take into account how far you are located away from KLWX, I'm not surprised to see some variance or inaccuracies. 

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8 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Interesting to see the low so far east on the latest HRRR. It takes it almost ENE off Virginia Beach. Surprised we would still turn to mix/rain in that scenario. It does jump it back west toward Bethany, which I'm guessing is just a feedback issue.

The zig zag northwest was a wierd forecast depiction. Snow direction is varying from east to northwest so cold air is not retreating and low is not inland nor will it be up the bay.  If baro keeps dropping at 0,04-0.05ph the critical time for immediate n and w suburbs looks to be 2-3pm.  Nowcasting at its finest 

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10 minutes ago, Scraff said:

What kind of beer? Beer geeks must know! Haha.  I’ll start hitting it around 3-4:00. Enjoy though. Nothing better than a roaring fire, beer in hand, and rippin fatties outside in full blown mountain scenery. 
 

PS-we need a “cheers” emoji in here. B)

It’s a Cisco Brewers pale ale...we went there in the summer while we spent a week in Nantucket so some family brought a case during Thanksgiving.  Working through them now :)

Ob...SN, 20 degrees, and there’s something magical about watching a fluffy dendrite float down from the sky and land in the snow.  I think I have a problem :D

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5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

17” was clearly not realistic. 9” may be a little high too. 

Agree but it was nice to dream. just pointing out it’s coming back to reality the last 2 runs. 

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