Fozz Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: NWS forecast looks a lot like 12z euro. More N-S gradient in MD due to how much snow falls after the flip back to snow. I like the NWS map although it’s maybe a little bullish on the 12-18” area size. That’s what I was thinking as well. Simply based on climo and the most recent guidance, I’m thinking more like 6-12” (or perhaps 5-10” per MillvilleWx) for the nearby north and west Baltimore suburbs such as Cockeysville, Owings Mills, and probably also Reisterstown, with the 12”+ totals north and west of a line from Hereford to Mt Airy. I think @Ellinwood’s map is a better guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4-6 here is a win for me. If the storm nudges a bit to the S/SE I'll take the boost in totals. Either way I just don't want cold white rain. (And Mappy enjoy your big time hit!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 LWX expanding the watch into the counties bordering DC. EDIT: @H2O gets a watch 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, baltosquid said: HRRR with its first digital snow for Baltimore for this one. Looks very cold overall. But it's also at 48 hours so... just fun for now. We're gonna be livin' on the age, lol I can't quite tell with all the DC/snowbelt posts here...but are lookin at 2-4" or 3-6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: This science seems solid I am using the @Jebman algorithm 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: LWX expanding the watch into the counties bordering DC. EDIT: @H2O gets a watch Feels like a participation trophy for being picked last on the kickball team 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 NAM has first flakes in the area around 9AM. At 48 has snow for everyone north of Charlottesville. 51 is crushing west of town. But I cant see where the 850 line is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: We're gonna be livin' on the age, lol I can't quite tell with all the DC/snowbelt posts here...but are lookin at 2-4" or 3-6"? Yes, that’s the latest LWX forecast depending on where exactly you are within the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Where is the LP on the NAM? Blacksburg? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The winter storm watch is prudent even close in to the cities. The models don’t have to be “wrong” for Montclair to get 6-12 inches of snow. Add a touch more cold air and a bit more of an easy track and presto snowstorm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 NAM comes in hot and heavy. 18z R/S line is about DCA and then it blows north by 21z. In that period, however, there is ~0.5” precip. The longer that the transition holds off, the better we can do on the front end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I can't believe I'm doing this, but the NAM at 51... Is definitely colder Has the LP probably 70 miles south and *just* a hair west of the last few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 It flips me out here even at 54. Then back to snow at 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: It flips me out here even at 54. Then back to snow at 57. I bet you 3k looks better than 12k here shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 NWS just moved the WSW boundary S &E by about one county along much of the previous cut-off from central VA up through MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: I can't believe I'm doing this, but the NAM at 51... Is definitely colder Has the LP probably 70 miles south and *just* a hair west of the last few runs Do you mean east? It looks to me like, after it jumped a bit east at 12z, it's now jumped considerably east again at 18z. It's now off of OC and not just off either. Much better. Surprised the thermals look as bad as they do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 To my eyes, the NAM looks east by a decent chunk (50 miles?). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: NAM comes in hot and heavy. 18z R/S line is about DCA and then it blows north by 21z. In that period, however, there is ~0.5” precip. The longer that the transition holds off, the better we can do on the front end. This does not hold for the 3km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: To my eyes, the NAM looks east by a decent chunk (50 miles?). 3k at 38 has much better moisture transport or at least looks more juicy as well. I really need front end to overproduce down this way because I don’t get ccb like a lot of folks farther to my north and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Do you mean east? It looks to me like, after it jumped a bit east at 12z, it's now jumped considerably east again at 18z. It's now off of OC and not just off either. Much better. Surprised the thermals look as bad as they do. I was referring to where it was at 51. It does scoot east after that. We all know the NAM is bad, especially at range, so I'm not worrying about too many details - just some generalities I noticed during a pretty important period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Central PA gets smashed this run. Plenty of juice this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: This does not hold for the 3km. The Nest has a closed 5H depiction for several hrs compared to every other model. It amps up and moves north, well west of other guidance. Something to monitor as that would screw a lot of people over. Still at range and can have those tendencies to be over amped beyond 36 hrs, at least from my experience. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Close to 1.3" QPF all frozen out here. Hancock-Cumberland 1.7-1.8" of QPF. Juiced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 DT Map 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 39 minutes ago, 40westwx said: I want you all to be prepared for the greatest succession of model runs in Mid Atlantic snow storm history.. over the next 36 hours we are going to see a slow and steady shift to colder temperatures.. all of you all teetering on the brink will see you 1-3 turn in to 2-4.. then to 6-8 and then.. the ever important 8-14. This shit is happening 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 40 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hey! The BWI crew are people too (I've always wondered why more Baltimore folks don't post here...it seems to be either DC or snowbelt, lol) I prefer to lurk in the shadows, tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, nj2va said: Close to 1.3" QPF all frozen out here. Hancock-Cumberland 1.7-1.8" of QPF. Juiced. Yeah. I am not gonna be stressing over temp profiles from the NAM at range. At least it juiced up this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 LOL 6 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, lester said: I prefer to lurk in the shadows, tbh Yes I gathered that there are several that lurk more than post...but hello anyway! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: DT Map My IQ always changes after these maps, not sure if it’s a gain or loss. 1 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts