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December 16/17 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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26 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Not to jinx this, but I don't recall an instance where we truly got a major storm (12"+) out here and DC got next to zilch.  As depicted, such a sharp cutoff seems not likely.  

Snowquester 2013? https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/snowquester-the-pictures-tell-its-story-best/2013/03/07/876cbffc-8761-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394_blog.html 

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23 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am trying to decide on a chase location. I was thinking Winchester, VA but not sure if that will even be too close to the mix right now. I don't want to have to go all the way to Harrsburg, PA.

Go NW of Winchester. Maybe Berkeley Springs? Or if you want to stay in the 81 Corridor I think Hagerstown is a good spot. 

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7 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I agree. I’ve seen a number of modeled storms over the years where my old home just north of the Balt beltway would get 8”+ while Wes got next to nothing.

In reality it almost never happens.

Yes.  Either DC gets in on some action, or the storm somewhat disappoints out here too (March 2013 a good example).  Hopefully,  Wednesday is the former, and not the latter.

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Just now, Chase said:

That's always my go to just for being burned in as such a painful memory. We didn't even MIX for most of the day while Cantore broadcast from the Mall. Meanwhile I had co-workers out in the boonies snowed in for days... 

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24 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am trying to decide on a chase location. I was thinking Winchester, VA but not sure if that will even be too close to the mix right now. I don't want to have to go all the way to Harrsburg, PA.

I would head further northeast than Winchester just to be safe.. I think maybe Frederick or Westminster, Md might be better bet. 

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2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Yes.  Either DC gets in on some action, or the storm somewhat disappoints out here too (March 2013 a good example).  Hopefully,  Wednesday is the former, and not the latter.

Going strictly by personal experience I'd say it is likely that the storm is another > < this close miss. That's just living in the area for 25 years and knowing how these tend to go especially this early in the season.

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I thought the 6z op run was ok but the eps was kinda ugly. A LOT of inside runners that track the low pretty far up the bay before the turn east.  This was the first ensemble run where I cringed when I looked at the slp plots. 

DF5A44FE-405E-411E-8245-DD4707501D07.thumb.png.afb4a009f305112465e71522f92049b5.png
AC133FC3-091D-4479-B736-C277FCB8FBE2.thumb.png.3446d6dcf0b9e788f310c4f42652da88.png


 

Yes. Even saw the 6z GEFS with some inland runners for the first time in a while. 

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2 minutes ago, Chase said:

We were forecasted to get 12"+ the night before.  I ended up getting 9" that night from the WAA, which did perform here, but nothing else once the coastal failed.  I put that storm solidly in the disappoint category.  Not a major snow storm out here.

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2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

Going strictly by personal experience I'd say it is likely that the storm is another > < this close miss. That's just living in the area for 25 years and knowing how these tend to go especially this early in the season.

you guys are not looking at the overall pattern.. which favors lower temp profiles.. March 2013 was a completely different set up.  At 12Z Wednesday temps are in the low 20s throughout central PA and the core of the cold air mass is the coldest temps Eastern North America has seen so far this winter.  We have a ~1040 HP system forcing that cold air mass in to our area.. I keep saying this.. but I really think we over-perform with temps!

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1 minute ago, 40westwx said:

you guys are not looking at the overall pattern.. which favors lower temp profiles.. March 2013 was a completely different set up.  At 12Z Wednesday temps are in the low 20s throughout central PA and the core of the cold air mass is the coldest temps Eastern North America has seen so far this winter.  We have a ~1040 HP system forcing that cold air mass in to our area.. I keep saying this.. but I really think we over-perform with temps!

Unfortunately, it really doesn't matter if the low placement is coming up through NC and VA and rolling toward the mouth of the bay. That's too close. It needs to be around or off Hatteras and then off OCMD. It seems models are trending toward bringing it over land and due north toward us. That's going to drive in tons of warm air and it will be game, set, match.

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