NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The RGEM and ICON paint this thing as basically a sleet bomb for the I-95 corridor now.I’ve never seen good sleet. I’ll sign on the dotted line for a wintry mix at this stage of the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 26 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Not to jinx this, but I don't recall an instance where we truly got a major storm (12"+) out here and DC got next to zilch. As depicted, such a sharp cutoff seems not likely. Snowquester 2013? https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/snowquester-the-pictures-tell-its-story-best/2013/03/07/876cbffc-8761-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 23 minutes ago, eyewall said: I am trying to decide on a chase location. I was thinking Winchester, VA but not sure if that will even be too close to the mix right now. I don't want to have to go all the way to Harrsburg, PA. Go NW of Winchester. Maybe Berkeley Springs? Or if you want to stay in the 81 Corridor I think Hagerstown is a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: I agree. I’ve seen a number of modeled storms over the years where my old home just north of the Balt beltway would get 8”+ while Wes got next to nothing. In reality it almost never happens. Yes. Either DC gets in on some action, or the storm somewhat disappoints out here too (March 2013 a good example). Hopefully, Wednesday is the former, and not the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Chase said: Snowquester 2013? https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/snowquester-the-pictures-tell-its-story-best/2013/03/07/876cbffc-8761-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394_blog.html That's always my go to just for being burned in as such a painful memory. We didn't even MIX for most of the day while Cantore broadcast from the Mall. Meanwhile I had co-workers out in the boonies snowed in for days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 24 minutes ago, eyewall said: I am trying to decide on a chase location. I was thinking Winchester, VA but not sure if that will even be too close to the mix right now. I don't want to have to go all the way to Harrsburg, PA. I would head further northeast than Winchester just to be safe.. I think maybe Frederick or Westminster, Md might be better bet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Yes. Either DC gets in on some action, or the storm somewhat disappoints out here too (March 2013 a good example). Hopefully, Wednesday is the former, and not the latter. Going strictly by personal experience I'd say it is likely that the storm is another > < this close miss. That's just living in the area for 25 years and knowing how these tend to go especially this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I thought the 6z op run was ok but the eps was kinda ugly. A LOT of inside runners that track the low pretty far up the bay before the turn east. This was the first ensemble run where I cringed when I looked at the slp plots. Yes. Even saw the 6z GEFS with some inland runners for the first time in a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Chase said: Snowquester 2013? https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/snowquester-the-pictures-tell-its-story-best/2013/03/07/876cbffc-8761-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394_blog.html We were forecasted to get 12"+ the night before. I ended up getting 9" that night from the WAA, which did perform here, but nothing else once the coastal failed. I put that storm solidly in the disappoint category. Not a major snow storm out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Scraff said: GFS looking good so far! Maybe it should've said "the snow you requested is not yet available" 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I already do not like this run based on the H5 map at 36 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Heights higher out in front at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 DP in the DC metro at 00z Thursday is 36°. That's most of what I need to know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Going strictly by personal experience I'd say it is likely that the storm is another > < this close miss. That's just living in the area for 25 years and knowing how these tend to go especially this early in the season. you guys are not looking at the overall pattern.. which favors lower temp profiles.. March 2013 was a completely different set up. At 12Z Wednesday temps are in the low 20s throughout central PA and the core of the cold air mass is the coldest temps Eastern North America has seen so far this winter. We have a ~1040 HP system forcing that cold air mass in to our area.. I keep saying this.. but I really think we over-perform with temps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: DP in the DC metro at 00z Thursday is 36°. That's most of what I need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS... eta: never mind. It’s fine. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Let's just run this thing up the Shenandoah Valley and so we can all be miserable together! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Yes. Even saw the 6z GEFS with some inland runners for the first time in a while. Seems the last several Winters have featured many Coastal huggers and Inland runners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Scraff said: GFS... yep... you could see it early on with the H5 map and the heights be higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 LOL.. as I write that last message the GFS jumps inland about 75 miles from the previous run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Scraff said: GFS... If you believe it, it still wants to change us back over to heavy snow by 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, 40westwx said: you guys are not looking at the overall pattern.. which favors lower temp profiles.. March 2013 was a completely different set up. At 12Z Wednesday temps are in the low 20s throughout central PA and the core of the cold air mass is the coldest temps Eastern North America has seen so far this winter. We have a ~1040 HP system forcing that cold air mass in to our area.. I keep saying this.. but I really think we over-perform with temps! Unfortunately, it really doesn't matter if the low placement is coming up through NC and VA and rolling toward the mouth of the bay. That's too close. It needs to be around or off Hatteras and then off OCMD. It seems models are trending toward bringing it over land and due north toward us. That's going to drive in tons of warm air and it will be game, set, match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 although panel 66 looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, DCTeacherman said: If you believe it, it still wants to change us back over to heavty snow by 66. I want some deform love... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a.salt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 So, the good news from the GFS is: 1) ever so slightly quicker onset 2) 850 track is off the coast 3) it still likes the backside deformation band 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 To those of you that said CAD tends to be under-modeled, let this be a lesson. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 goodness can we let the damn thing run before saying it sucks? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: So, the good news from the GFS is: 1) ever so slightly quicker onset 2) 850 track is off the coast 3) it still likes the backside deformation band Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Next!...winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts