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November 2020 Discussion


Bostonseminole
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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If we’re squinting to try and imagine a winter pattern.. we are in big, big trouble 

If aren't squinting in NSE to imagine a winter landscape in November, its a pretty epic pattern. That is the only saving grace here....we are burning crap climo. Def. need some changes over the course of the  next month.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's an utterly putrid pattern for at least the next 10 days....if we managed anything remotely exciting in terms of winter wx, it would be do to something extremely well-timed and probably more for NNE to boot.

 

As mentioned above though, if one squinted, you could start to see a potentially "better" looking hemispheric pattern by the end of the GEFS (and to a lesser extent EPS). So hopefully that becomes more apparent in the next few runs.

Hopefully another surprise 5-10 of upslope suddenly appears out of nowhere. I'm coming to realize that happens in certain spots up here.

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If aren't squinting in NSE to imagine a winter landscape in November, its a pretty epic pattern. That is the only saving grace here....we are burning crap climo. Def. need some changes over the course of the  next month.

Glass half full thoughts. We sneak in a decent Dec with a significant event or two. Per your outlook, the pattern goes to crap during peak winter climo, which actually provides us more room for error. Therefore, we sneak an event of two in then. Thereafter, the pattern improves and potentially gets more blocky for the end of winter. Maybe we score a well timed MECS+ or three at that time. Sprinkle in a clipper or light event here and there and boom...decent winter after all. Retention issues aside. If I can get retention to last longer than 3 consecutive days...I’ll already beat out last “winter”. 

Spring arrives in full force by 3/25...tulips and daisies.  We’re all lining up for our vaccine and posting up at the bar soon thereafter for a summer to remember.

Credits roll and all is good in the world once again.

 

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I wasn't honestly paying attention but that 00z Euro's D6 solution up there is a humdinger ... that's bordering on excessive bombing rates going from a 1004 mb low over PWM to 967 mb over the NF region..  

Like Will just said ... roll the die on timing for NNE I suppose.  That's prooobably light snow in the air moving sideways at commercial airline take off velocities for Caribou Maine, with one helluva dense arc of blizzard rad just NE of there on that 00z Wednesday chart.  

So... maybe we should qualify our uninspired 'putrid' look to be in deference to our region specifically.  

Having said all that ... I don't see this as very likely buuuut, D6 is far enough out in time that a southwest correction could ... oh, hell-   sometimes the jig is up and god can't get away with his/her bullshit anymore 

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15 hours ago, rclab said:

Don’t fret, Phineas. The only way such a curse could verify is if Baltimore ended up with a higher cold season snow total than Caribou. That would force the Reaper to give room sanctuary to both DT and JB. There goes the neighborhood. As always ....

So you had to trigger my PTSD from 2009-10, didn't you?  :P  And that winter's BWI vs. CAR snowfall comparison is probably a 200-year event, maybe 500. 

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15 hours ago, Lava Rock said:
15 hours ago, kdxken said:
Throw in a couple Oxys and it's a world of pain.

I didn't bother with the pain killers. Some bourbon was good enough without the constipation

I was given an Rx for oxycodone after my C-4 fusion surgery in 2011.  Went home after one overnight and took one pill the next evening.  Woke up 2 AM salivating such that I had to swallow 5-6 times/minute, with each swallow dragging part of the cervical collar back and forth across the lightly-bandaged incision site - pain 10+ times worse than anything else from that episode so I was one and done.

Cloudy and upper 20s at 11 AM, with a raw SW wind.  Low was about 7, making it 15 of 23 Novembers with at least one sub-10° morning, including 9 of the last 10.

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Just now, tamarack said:

I was given an Rx for oxycodone after my C-4 fusion surgery in 2011.  Went home after one overnight and took one pill the next evening.  Woke up 2 AM salivating such that I had to swallow 5-6 times/minute, with each swallow dragging part of the cervical collar back and forth across the lightly-bandaged incision site - pain 10+ times worse than anything else from that episode so I was one and done.

Cloudy and upper 20s at 11 AM, with a raw SW wind.  Low was about 7, making it 15 of 23 Novembers with at least one sub-10° morning, including 9 of the last 10.

A few years ago my wife broke her pinky finger and the ER gave her 30 oxys.  A few weeks later she had to have it reset and that Dr. gave her 30 more.  I'm not sure of the sizes.  And we wonder why we have opioid problem.

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15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This can be good for New England if this bombs earlier 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_39.png

That weekend starts to show the PNA ridge building into the beginning of December, might be the "thread the needle" period for the region...IF of course the PNA is for real. There also seems to be alot of systems slamming into the west coast. What is this El Nino? odd.....

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, without any exceptions for the stronger events.

Signal seems weak for NNE, at least at CAR, PWM and my much shorter record.  Ninas with BN December snow finished at 87% for both CAR and me while it was 94% at PWM.  However, much of that BN winter comes directly from the BN DEC.   If one looks only at winter apart from December, CAR is at 97%, I'm 99% and PWM is 101%.

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It's a blown open ravioli .... it's a result of the flow outpacing the cyclone kinematics - I mean it takes time the physical interplay to evolve the storm, but if the whole construct is ripping along... particularly at this sort of range in the guidance, it starts pulling/tearing at it... 

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I'm just happy the GFS and GEFS got a little more progressive with the system around Thanksgiving.  Let's get that thing out of here by early Thurs morning.  A lot of folks hoping to eat dinner outside.  We'll worry about snow later on.  That 4" in Oct has us up on climo for like another 3 weeks lol.

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2 hours ago, mreaves said:

A few years ago my wife broke her pinky finger and the ER gave her 30 oxys.  A few weeks later she had to have it reset and that Dr. gave her 30 more.  I'm not sure of the sizes.  And we wonder why we have opioid problem.

:o

My old dentist used to hand out scrips like they were Subway coupons. 

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Couple of aspects I like about this guy ( the D7.5 thru D9 time range)  ... 

mr.thumb.jpg.7a4d49576f21fda59e03d32cd13faf72.jpg

The limiting factors is ...as I noted briefly an hour ago...the the fast progressive nature of the flow.  The western ridge/eastern trough, doesn't have time to reach full wave amplitude before the larger hemispheric scaled momentum has pushed the whole thing along ...That's why the GFS ends up with a open bag of 'almostitude' ...  Not worrying about that though at a D8 ... let's get some sort of dependable table setting first ... 

Which related to that ...  I don't wanna fall for this shit again but ...

pna.jpg.078b2668211420975e0efb47d53692b1.jpg

...that rising PNA is yet even more concerted and demonstrated out there around temporal seam of weeks 1 and 2 ...which is right about on this western ridge amplitude ( requirement...)...thus, some correction toward taller heights over western N/A isn't terrible as a 'correction vector' ( if you will...)..  If so, the flow probably slows concomitantly down and gives the surface/cyclogenesis time to coalesce and come into form for a strike..... 

The GGEM is encouraging ...not for details ...but I am a big fan of cross guidance support - 

EPS derived PNA = ?    .... 

The operational Euro is noted but the EPS seemed to be more prodigiously interested ...hinting/grudgingly more western heights post that trough ejecta so ... you know, we're not around inside that Euro D4.5 wheel house...and the EPS could portend a future correction.

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