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uofmiami

October 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Morning thoughts...

A mostly sunny day with temperatures generally in the lower and middle 60s is in store. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 62°

Newark: 65°

Philadelphia: 65°

A stretch of warmer than normal temperatures will return starting tomorrow. One or more days during the work week could see much above normal readings.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:
First +10 or greater departures of the month coming up this week. The previous highest daily temperature departure at Newark so far this month was +8 back in the 7th. 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  10/18/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SUN  18| MON 19| TUE 20| WED 21| THU 22| FRI 23| SAT 24| SUN 25 CLIMO
 X/N  63| 51  68| 57  76| 61  75| 62  75| 59  68| 55  72| 52  59 44 62


133C94A6-4C5D-4569-8F15-7C08106816E0.thumb.png.f3ea52ddf775bc20c851ef7ca32c1d72.png

 

 

Really over blowing a few days in the low 70s this week. Going to be a long winter

41F Wading River

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22 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Whoa, I beat muttontown. 35.1 here

I’m sure the pool at 82 nearby doesn’t help, but can’t win all the radiation cooling days, haha.

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Guessing it will be pretty warm ahead... we'll have to watch low lvl moisture that could lower potential 'max' temps along the coasts as overall, it looks like high pressure to our north with short attempts at w-sw surface flow.  Most of the time it seems some sort of onshore flow?  Not sure this is an entirely clean week ahead... I could see some drizzle, even a shower on one or two days of the next 7 (excluding today). 

Also, slight cirrus and very thin smoke aloft this morning. A somewhat thicker plume from the CO fire would possibly be noticed tomorrow with the only drawback being the likelihood of multiple layers of clouds. 

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1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

Really over blowing a few days in the low 70s this week. Going to be a long winter

41F Wading River

These warm patterns tend to overperform I bet we see some temps higher than guidance.   Had it not rained 3-4 inches this week I would have taken a bet on a day close to 80

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5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

36 

36 was the low here too. As expected, everything in the vegetable garden is just fine. And now no frost/freeze in sight for a long time as we go into a very warm pattern.

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First 30s of season at places like ISP this morning is close to the average since 2010. A little over a week later than during the 2000’s.

First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 04-11 (2019) 10-10 (2010) 149
Mean 04-28 10-19 172
Maximum 05-13 (2010) 11-01 (2017) 190
2019 04-11 (2019) 36 10-19 (2019) 38 190
2018 04-24 (2018) 36 10-18 (2018) 35 176
2017 05-04 (2017) 39 11-01 (2017) 36 180
2016 04-17 (2016) 37 10-11 (2016) 39 176
2015 05-02 (2015) 39 10-18 (2015) 33 168
2014 04-25 (2014) 38 10-20 (2014) 35 177
2013 05-05 (2013) 39 10-21 (2013) 39 168
2012 04-30 (2012) 36 10-13 (2012) 32 165
2011 05-06 (2011) 38 10-28 (2011) 37 174
2010 05-13 (2010) 38 10-10 (2010) 37 149

 

First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 04-17 (2009) 10-02 (2009) 137
Mean 05-09 10-10 153
Maximum 05-22 (2002) 10-24 (2005) 167
2009 04-17 (2009) 32 10-02 (2009) 38 167
2008 05-20 (2008) 39 10-18 (2008) 39 150
2007 05-08 (2007) 39 10-13 (2007) 39 157
2006 04-29 (2006) 37 10-13 (2006) 38 166
2005 05-13 (2005) 37 10-24 (2005) 36 163
2004 05-05 (2004) 38 10-05 (2004) 39 152
2003 05-18 (2003) 38 10-03 (2003) 34 137
2002 05-22 (2002) 37 10-14 (2002) 39 144
2001 05-08 (2001) 37 10-07 (2001) 39 151
2000 05-16 (2000) 39 10-08 (2000) 39 144
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35 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

36 was the low here too. As expected, everything in the vegetable garden is just fine. And now no frost/freeze in sight for a long time as we go into a very warm pattern.

Yep, looks like a nice stretch of winter weather for the upper Midwest. Minnesota should have a big winter again this year. 
 

I have no use for a cold pattern for us. It’s just a waste, save it for December 

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5 hours ago, tim said:

...KFOK @ 32*..got down to 31* @ 4am..

i'm @ 36.3.

FOX went from 34 at 8am to 53 at 9am.   

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3 hours ago, Cfa said:

Briefly touched 39.4, first 30’s, no frost thankfully.

 

3 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Morning low of 36.1 in Muttontown & 36.7 in Syosset. Had frost on cars & rooftops in Syosset.

 

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Whoa, I beat muttontown. 35.1 here

41 here

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yep, looks like a nice stretch of winter weather for the upper Midwest. Minnesota should have a big winter again this year. 
 

I have no use for a cold pattern for us. It’s just a waste, save it for December 

Completely agree. Hopefully the warm pattern will last a long time this Fall to keep the growing season going and for outdoor activities like hiking, leaf raking and outdoor dining. Then hopefully it will flip to a colder pattern to get some snow in December.

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24 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Completely agree. Hopefully the warm pattern will last a long time this Fall to keep the growing season going and for outdoor activities like hiking, leaf raking and outdoor dining. Then hopefully it will flip to a colder pattern to get some snow in December.

Exactly. Plus my expectations are so low for this winter that any snowfall would make me happy. 
 

We have had really cold patterns/snowfall The last few November’s and it really has meant nothing for the coming winter. I have no scientific proof that it means anything but I would prefer a warm fall.

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the three la nina years from 1973-75 featured some late fall warmth...it hit 77 on 11/15/73...81 on 11/1/74 and 78 on 11/4/75...in 1950 (another la nina year) it was 84 on the 1st and 83 on the 2nd...with the ao and nao going positive in the long run I can see temps hitting 75-80 again...

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3 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Really over blowing a few days in the low 70s this week. Going to be a long winter

41F Wading River

Can you share the method behind prediction? I ask because I am always curious how people get to a specific range several months out

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45 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the three la nina years from 1973-75 featured some late fall warmth...it hit 77 on 11/15/73...81 on 11/1/74 and 78 on 11/4/75...in 1950 (another la nina year) it was 84 on the 1st and 83 on the 2nd...with the ao and nao going positive in the long run I can see temps hitting 75-80 again...

I think 75 to 80 is a good possibility for this week. Maybe not quite to 80, but I think there's a good chance my area will hit 77 or 78 wednesday or thursday this week. Great October weather!

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Pretty late in the season for a 588 DM ridge over our area this week. 

 

0A411737-AACB-4461-8AA7-9A37600B7963.png.d3338d197c44d5e1a95ed35e8dad2b5a.png

 

I mentioned days ago of a possible record high on the 22nd.        Unfortunately it was 88* in 1979 on that date after a winter like bout that saw snow flurries/wet snow  all day back on Oct. 10, 1979.         The GFS has 8 70-Degree Days incoming [in the next 11 days]  and one of those is 80* on the 22nd.   The cold air is getting worn out just reaching the EC----now another day later on the 29th.  

As a quick aside:        Tampa is way in line for its 30th. consecutive  month w/o going BN, at +3.9 so far.       Also, I think in the last 11 years there will still be just one BN month out of 22 (Sept./Oct)(NYC) when this month ends around here.       Boy how we need next year's 30 Year Normal update in order to get our perspective straight.

 

 

 

 

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